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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director

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    someperson1991
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    #1204359879

    Oh my god they opened the predictions center.

    I don’t have Blonde getting in for BP and BD right now, but does anyone think screenplay can happen? I’ve read the film is weird, but I don’t think it’ll be weird on the level of Annette, so Ana de Armas might be able to score a BA nomination.

    I’m probably the only person here bullish about Blonde‘s chances, but the Writers Branch is usually where the more structurally adventurous fare can get in (this is also why I’m doubting The French Dispatch in Picture and Director but not Screenplay). It’ll depend on how many adapted screenplay contenders there are.

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    Stank83
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    #1204359892

    Top 3 most likely for BP win (for now)

    1. The Power of The Dog

    2. Don’t Look Up

    3. The Tragedy of Macbeth

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    Music Forever
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    #1204359901

    How do we know House of Gucci will be bad if we haven’t even seen an official trailer yet? The story & cast are definitely Oscar bait.

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    borisy
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    #1204359906

    I have my doubts about HoG being a contender, but let’s see this trailer first

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204359909

    Indiewire lists Canterbury Glass as 2022 release.

     

    No DOR shit for this year i guess

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    #1204359968
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204359976

    Release Date Late November. Trailer next week. It seems they have a lot of confidence in HOUSE OF GUCCI

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    someperson1991
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    #1204359979

    Dune is a Warner Bros movie. It’s basically their priority. Warner Bros movies always get nominated. Period.

    Nothing in 2016.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204359989

    Yeah, I don’t get it AT ALL. I don’t even get how some of you can be stans of Dune. I’M a huge stan of Dune and Villeneuve, and that trailer………looks bad! Why on earth would you want a totally accessible adaptation of a book that is SO rich? Personally Dune would do better with the Oscars if it was weirder not more accessible. Will it do well with audiences? Probably. But why don’t you want an actual GOOD adaptation lol. I want the film to be as ambiguous and thoughtful and heartbreaking about many themes simultaneously as the book series—yes, I know that sounds impossible for an adaptation which is why it feels like a death knell for Villeneuve, but I’m hoping it’s not like the trailer at the very least.

    Man, I really don’t want to re-open DUNE discourse. I think both “sides” are really frustrated by it already. I sure am. But, I have to say:

    Having watched about 20 minutes of footage, yes, the movie is very different from the trailer from what I’ve seen. The trailer was clearly cut purely to attract audiences unfamiliar with source material (with success, some of y’all are so wrong that it underperformed). Moments like the little bit of banter or action from what we saw play much differently in the film. As a DUNE stan, me and the couple hundred or so others there were blown away. Many of the thematic intricacies seem to be there (I think everyone was, of course, expecting some concessions) — and the trailer is showing that too, if you look past the fact they pulled just about every action scene that will be in it.  And I’m not really seeing much of any negativity among the really hardcore fanbase in all my little nerd corners of the internet; really think you’re in the minority so far. We’ll see how the reception of the full film is, but right now the reaction from the base seems very positive. I know you laid out your takes on the trailer and I’d love to answer each one because I do have thoughts on them all, but I won’t drag it out any more. If someone opens a thread I’m happy to get into it. Otherwise, I’ll stop on the DUNE for now.

    And generally (not at y’all) I hope everyone out there sorts out the official narrative of why DUNE will fail soon. Because “the property is too unknown and has no base” vs. “the DUNE fans won’t like it” vs. “the marketing is too mainstream” … please pick one because it can’t be all of the above.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204359993

    Indiewire lists Canterbury Glass as 2022 release. No DOR shit for this year i guess

    Thank god TBH.

    So yall Dune stans just better shut the fuck up because your little movie is going to barely cross 400M if it crosses. This is just Blade Runner all over again. Yall shouldnt even be comparing Dune to the MCU box office wise because its just embarassing

    Blade Runner made $260M on a $160M budget. That’s why it was a “flop.” DUNE’s budget was $165M. General consensus is budget x 2.5=success. That’s $412M. So I’ll take your predicted box office success with the critical acclaim I’m confident is coming as a W, thanks. But I think it will make more.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204360044

    Not the prediction centre opening (and me losing 100/1 odds on top contenders) the day I take a break from Gold Derby…

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    kaziz
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    #1204360086

    Having watched about 20 minutes of footage, yes, the movie is very different from the trailer from what I’ve seen. The trailer was clearly cut purely to attract audiences unfamiliar with source material (with success, some of y’all are so wrong that it underperformed). Moments like the little bit of banter or action from what we saw play much differently in the film. As a DUNE stan, me and the couple hundred or so others there were blown away. Many of the thematic intricacies seem to be there (I think everyone was, of course, expecting some concessions) — and the trailer is showing that too, if you look past the fact they pulled just about every action scene that will be in it.  And I’m not really seeing much of any negativity among the really hardcore fanbase in all my little nerd corners of the internet; really think you’re in the minority so far. We’ll see how the reception of the full film is, but right now the reaction from the base seems very positive. I know you laid out your takes on the trailer and I’d love to answer each one because I do have thoughts on them all, but I won’t drag it out any more. If someone opens a thread I’m happy to get into it. Otherwise, I’ll stop on the DUNE for now.

    Thanks, this actually addresses my concerns really well. I actually want Dune to do well. I’m rooting for it, I really am, and I’m a Villeneuve fan! I really don’t care whether or not it’ll be a blockbuster hit (probably will, but I didn’t come to GD to discuss box office), I just want it to be true to the series, which I have always been skeptical of because it seems so un-adaptable. OK, yeah, this makes sense. I was hoping the trailer was a bad cut from a much better film, and you just confirmed that, so thanks.

    I have actually seen a lot of negativity lol. Most of my friends are huge sci-fi nerds (millennial bookworms…) and they were pretty furiously hating on the trailer irl. And you can see that in the comments. People also are retaining hope because of Villeneuve—so that’s good.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204360158

    Thanks, this actually addresses my concerns really well. I actually want Dune to do well. I’m rooting for it, I really am, and I’m a Villeneuve fan! I really don’t care whether or not it’ll be a blockbuster hit (probably will, but I didn’t come to GD to discuss box office), I just want it to be true to the series, which I have always been skeptical of because it seems so un-adaptable. OK, yeah, this makes sense. I was hoping the trailer was a bad cut from a much better film, and you just confirmed that, so thanks. I have actually seen a lot of negativity lol. Most of my friends are huge sci-fi nerds (millennial bookworms…) and they were pretty furiously hating on the trailer irl. And you can see that in the comments. People also are retaining hope because of Villeneuve—so that’s good.

    Yeah, I can’t emphasize enough how much the trailer feels like a big effort in cut work to make this movie feel action-y or Marvel quippy; it doesn’t fit with what we saw. There are absolutely concessions/changes being made, like I mentioned, but not to belabor the LOTR/DUNE comparisons because I know that’s obnoxious and hyperbolic but…well…kind of like with LOTR — nothing that feels like it fundamentally alters the material. But main thematic elements (environmentalism, imperialism, etc.) were there off the bat. And the extra scene (a biggie!) we got in addition to the 10 minutes of footage is just pulled straight from the book. What I saw truly felt like a masterclass, hopefully the rest holds up.

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    AjayLopez25
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    Oct 24th, 2019
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    #1204360176

    my Oscars 2022 predictions

    Picture

    top 10:

    In The Heights

    Mass

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The Tragedy Of Macbeth

    CODA

    House Of Gucci

    The French Dispatch

    Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    A Hero

    next in line:

    Annette

    Passing

    Last Night In Soho

    The Power Of The Dog

    Blonde

    Respect

    West Side Story

    Eternals

    King Richard

    The Last Duel

    followed by:

    The Whale

    Soggy Bottom

    The Harder They Fall

    A Journal For Jordan

    The Worst Person In The World

    Belfast

    Zola

    The Many Saints Of Newark

    Next Goal Wins

    The Green Knight

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    #1204360182
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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