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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204361887

    You mean The Hurt Locker? <i>Hacksaw Ridge</i> came out in 2016.

    Yes lol! My mind was on 2016 films like Moonlight and I accidentally mixed up the two war films.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204361898

    I do think there will be a bit of a populist play in nominations this year (and that includes Nightmare Alley), but it won’t mean a thing for the winner. My only hesitation with TPOD is they still seem to be very reluctant to completely embrace Netflix, but the pandemic effect may have changed that. Mank and Chicago 7 were never gonna win, but I don’t know they would refuse to hand it to a deserving winner now like with Roma.

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    wolfali
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    #1204361931

    Still not sold on Nightmare Alley being an awards thing. It will be too dark, violent and cynical for the current climate. Critics will obviously love it, but I bet on a cold reception from the audience. The Shape of Water at least had two lovely and relatable main characters to root for. Nightmare Alley is just full of shitty people being shitty, kinda like Mank. Assuming it will be anything like the book and the 1947 film.

    Either one (if not both) of Nightmare Alley and The French Dispatch will get into Best Picture. Said it before but Searchlight are like the HBO of the Oscars. They’re formidable campaigners who even managed to get something like Beasts of the Southern Wild nominated. If they can get that in I don’t see why they would have so much trouble with films from well known and prestigious directors with ensembles with A list actors.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    mateil
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    #1204361940

    Either one (if not both) of Nightmare Alley and The French Dispatch will get into Best Picture. Said it before but Searchlight are like the HBO of the Oscars. They’re formidable campaigners who even managed to get something like Beasts of the Southern Wild nominated. If they can get that in I don’t see why they would have so much trouble with films from well known and prestigious directors with ensembles with A list actors.

    IDK why I feel more confident in Next Goal Wins than both of those.

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    Anirudh Arun
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    #1204361945

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>For your consideration:</p> the women in the window Best picture: campiest flick of the year. Best director: joe wright Best actress: amy adams ‘i’m not crazy’ while acting like a wacko. Best supporting actress: julianne moore “look at this shitty house” Best supporting actor: albino oldman and his yellin Best supporting actor: pills and wine. Best adapted screenplay: YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH ETHAN IS INAPPROPRIATE! HE IS A YOUNG MAN! HE IS BOY 15 YEAR AND A HALF AND YOU ARE MATURE WOMAN!!! Best makeup: after being stabbed in the face with something, few months later adams come back looking like a supermodel. What a great makeup! Best cinematography: you will never see a better use of dutch angle than this. Best production design: those cracked glass ceiling.

    I cannot describe the way I laughed during the third act. It was the most unintentionally hilarious thing I’ve ever seen.

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    JV
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    #1204361960

    These takes make no sense to me.
    1. Too dark, violent and cynical for the current climate?!? Arguably most contenders will be like this: Dune (yes, it’s very cynical), The Power of the Dog, Last Night in Soho, Tragedy of Macbeth (already violent + the weird take Joel Coen will have will def be dark & cynical), and Adam McKay’s films are comedic sure but very cynical.
    2. If Chinatown sprang to mind, doesn’t that mean it’s a safe play?
    3. Why does it have to be like A Shape of Water?
    4. Yes it’s mostly shitty people, but you mentioned Mank—so it can be as successful (nom-wise) as Mank, right?

    I get the argument that it could possibly not be as emotionally touching, but tbf Guillermo del Toro is always very emotionally touching. All of his films use the surrealism to give the audience all the feels.

    BUT I’m always skeptical of big ensembles. They’re too scattered, people always overestimate them in advance. If the film focuses enough on Blanchett and Cooper’s characters, it could be excellent. If it’s too ensemble-y, I dunno. But I see no reason to think it’s too dark or whatever for the current climate because all the films are lol

    1- Neither of these movies are going to be dark and gritty noir like Nightmare Alley will probably be. Dune will be an accessible blockbuster. The Power of the Dog is similar to Manchester by the Sea. I don’t have faith in The Tragedy of MacBeth either and Last Night in Soho probably won’t be an Oscar player. Don’t Look Up will be a satire, pretty much like Succession.

    2- A movie that came out in 1974 ? I’m talking about a post pandemic world.

    3- Because it was the Best Picture winner ? And the only Del Toro movie to be successful with awards along with Pan’s Labyrinth ?

    4- Mank missed Screenplay and it would have missed Best Picture and Best Director in a more competitive year.

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    wolfali
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    #1204362039

    IDK why I feel more confident in Next Goal Wins than both of those.

    Is it definitely coming out this season though?

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    Stank83
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    #1204362109

    The forum is obsessed with the idea that the Academy will nominate more popular films to save its ratings. Theaters are reopening but films still aren’t performing as well (Black Widow) as they did before because people are still reluctant to go back to theaters. The little indie that could will prevail again this year just like how The Hurt Locker defeated Avatar and Moonlight over La La Land.

    Black Widow is not performing at pre-pandemic levels only because Disney was so dumb that they decided to release it on their personal digital platform (Disney +) simultaneously with the theatrical release, instead of waiting for a month.

    Otherwise it would have hit already the 500 Million mark.

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    #1204362128
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    Diamond Tier
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    #1204362305

    Jane Campion hasn’t been a factor since the 90’s. The Power of the Dog would need to receive overwhelming praise in order for her to be a #1 contender. Not to mention, Director is packed with the usual big names.

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    DaKardii
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    #1204362329

    JULY 2021 PREDICTIONS (The Film Drunk)

    PICTURE

    1. Nightmare Alley
    2. Soggy Bottom
    3. Don’t Look Up
    4. Dune
    5. The Power of the Dog
    6. West Side Story
    7. A Hero
    8. House of Gucci
    9. The French Dispatch
    10. Last Night in Soho

     

    DIRECTOR

    1. Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley)
    2. Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
    3. Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
    4. Paul Thomas Anderson (Soggy Bottom)
    5. Asghar Farhadi (A Hero)
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    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
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    Apr 20th, 2019
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    #1204362961

    People, people, people. Nightmare Alley is getting in. It’s been the early frontrunner since like last year. It’s obviously not winning, but it is getting nominated. It’s A Star Is Born. It’s The Irishman. It’s Mank. Stop with this unfounded skepticism.

    Oscars FYC:

    Visual Effects: Free Guy

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    kaziz
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    #1204362980

    Have you guys seen the new synopsis Netflix gave for The Power of the Dog? It’s really informative for me in terms of how Campion is adapting the book.

    Severe, pale-eyed, handsome, Phil Burbank is brutally beguiling. All of Phil’s romance, power and fragility is trapped in the past and in the land: He can castrate a bull calf with two swift slashes of his knife; he swims naked in the river, smearing his body with mud. He is a cowboy as raw as his hides. The year is 1925. The Burbank brothers are wealthy ranchers in Montana. At the Red Mill restaurant on their way to market, the brothers meet Rose, the widowed proprietress, and her impressionable son Peter. Phil behaves so cruelly he drives them both to tears, revelling in their hurt and rousing his fellow cowhands to laughter – all except his brother George, who comforts Rose then returns to marry her. As Phil swings between fury and cunning, his taunting of Rose takes an eerie form – he hovers at the edges of her vision, whistling a tune she can no longer play. His mockery of her son is more overt, amplified by the cheering of Phil’s cowhand disciples. Then Phil appears to take the boy under his wing. Is this latest gesture a softening that leaves Phil exposed, or a plot twisting further into menace?

    No mention of McKenzie’s character, but I can already tell from the synopsis which parts of the book will be thrown away, which will be foregrounded, which will be amalgamated. Basically: Dunst’s character Rose will be much more of a co-lead than she is in the book. It’ll probably start with some amount with just Cumberbatch and a little bit with Plemons but it’s jumping straight to Rose and then her arrival at the ranch. Also, Kodi Smit-McPhee seems like he has an even bigger role than the book which was already super pivotal. Didn’t expect that. He’ll be in play for supporting along with Plemons.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
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    #1204362987

    Severe, pale-eyed, handsome, Phil Burbank is brutally beguiling. All of Phil’s romance, power and fragility is trapped in the past and in the land: He can castrate a bull calf with two swift slashes of his knife; he swims naked in the river, smearing his body with mud. He is a cowboy as raw as his hides. The year is 1925. The Burbank brothers are wealthy ranchers in Montana. At the Red Mill restaurant on their way to market, the brothers meet Rose, the widowed proprietress, and her impressionable son Peter. Phil behaves so cruelly he drives them both to tears, revelling in their hurt and rousing his fellow cowhands to laughter – all except his brother George, who comforts Rose then returns to marry her. As Phil swings between fury and cunning, his taunting of Rose takes an eerie form – he hovers at the edges of her vision, whistling a tune she can no longer play. His mockery of her son is more overt, amplified by the cheering of Phil’s cowhand disciples. Then Phil appears to take the boy under his wing. Is this latest gesture a softening that leaves Phil exposed, or a plot twisting further into menace?

    What a description. The brotherly and kin conflict have been giving me East of Eden vibes of unwavering violence, deceit, and foreboding adultery. This screams Best Picture to me.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204362993

    Jane Campion hasn’t been a factor since the 90’s. The Power of the Dog would need to receive overwhelming praise in order for her to be a #1 contender. Not to mention, Director is packed with the usual big names.

    Surprisingly, auteurs tend not to be factors when they haven’t made a film for over a decade.

    I’m even more confident in it now having read the detailed synopsis. Not just in the film & Campion, but holy moly, Cumberbatch has the role of his life on his hands. Dunst’s role is gold. Campion’s coming to punch us in the gut (emotionally), just like the book does.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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