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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director

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    kaziz
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    #1204362997

    What a description. The brotherly and kin conflict have been giving me East of Eden vibes of unwavering violence, deceit, and foreboding adultery. This screams Best Picture to me.

    Right?! I mean, you’d be even more confident if you read the book because it’s…such a brilliant book. No adultery though. Something…else.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    wolfali
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    #1204363007

    Have you guys seen the new synopsis Netflix gave for The Power of the Dog? It’s really informative for me in terms of how Campion is adapting the book.

    Severe, pale-eyed, handsome, Phil Burbank is brutally beguiling. All of Phil’s romance, power and fragility is trapped in the past and in the land: He can castrate a bull calf with two swift slashes of his knife; he swims naked in the river, smearing his body with mud. He is a cowboy as raw as his hides. The year is 1925. The Burbank brothers are wealthy ranchers in Montana. At the Red Mill restaurant on their way to market, the brothers meet Rose, the widowed proprietress, and her impressionable son Peter. Phil behaves so cruelly he drives them both to tears, revelling in their hurt and rousing his fellow cowhands to laughter – all except his brother George, who comforts Rose then returns to marry her. As Phil swings between fury and cunning, his taunting of Rose takes an eerie form – he hovers at the edges of her vision, whistling a tune she can no longer play. His mockery of her son is more overt, amplified by the cheering of Phil’s cowhand disciples. Then Phil appears to take the boy under his wing. Is this latest gesture a softening that leaves Phil exposed, or a plot twisting further into menace?

    No mention of McKenzie’s character, but I can already tell from the synopsis which parts of the book will be thrown away, which will be foregrounded, which will be amalgamated. Basically: Dunst’s character Rose will be much more of a co-lead than she is in the book. It’ll probably start with some amount with just Cumberbatch and a little bit with Plemons but it’s jumping straight to Rose and then her arrival at the ranch. Also, Kodi Smit-McPhee seems like he has an even bigger role than the book which was already super pivotal. Didn’t expect that. He’ll be in play for supporting along with Plemons.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    fefface
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    #1204363247

    So potential BP nominees going to Venice:

    IN COMP

    – The Power of the Dog

    – Spencer

    – The Card Counter

    – The Lost Daughter

    – Parallel Mothers

    OUT OF COMP

    – Dune

    – Last Night in Soho

    – The Last Duel

     

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    Stank83
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    #1204363428

    People, people, people. Nightmare Alley is getting in. It’s been the early frontrunner since like last year. It’s obviously not winning, but it is getting nominated. It’s A Star Is Born. It’s The Irishman. It’s Mank. Stop with this unfounded skepticism.

    Agree about a nomination in Picture, but i have my doubts regarding Directing and Actor.

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    mateil
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    #1204363462

    I think we should keep in mind the fact that Mank was helped by the fact that it was the biggest below the line contender. In that regard I do think Nightmare Alley will be overshadowed by Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story and hell even Eternals if that ends up being a serious contender.

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    mateil
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    #1204363466

    Again, I might be wrong and at this point I do think there is still a very big chance it gets in, but Nightmare Alley is giving me First Man and Beale Street vibes(a film that is not as beloved as the director’s previous award winning work so it gets overlooked).

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    fefface
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    #1204363474

    I think we should keep in mind the fact that Mank was helped by the fact that it was the biggest below the line contender. In that regard I do think Nightmare Alley will be overshadowed by Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story and hell even Eternals if that ends up being a serious contender.

    Not if the new rumour (that Macbeth was rejected by Venice because it isn’t very good) is true.

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204363558

    Again, I might be wrong and at this point I do think there is still a very big chance it gets in, but Nightmare Alley is giving me First Man and Beale Street vibes(a film that is not as beloved as the director’s previous award winning work so it gets overlooked).

    That is highly-possible. I’d probably lean more in the direction of it being another 127 Hours/Zero Dark Thirty/Les Miserables instead if that happens and still being a lower-tier Best Picture nominee. It is worth pointing out though that the two biggest exceptions that still performed about as well as the previous awards-winners from their directors are The Revenant and Roma, so doubting del Toro’s ability to do what Cuaron and Inarritu did might not be the best idea.

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204363577

    I think if the rumours about Macbeth, Blonde and Venice thing is true, it wouldnt undermine Macbeth’s chance. I have a weird feeling Venice committee just being too snobbish towards these movies because its an “Hollywood/american production” or whatever the reason they have.

    Besides, how Soho could screen/premiered there over Macbeth and Blonde is beyond me (and Im saying this as someone who roots Soho to score across the board nominations)

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    mateil
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    #1204363585

    That is highly-possible. I’d probably lean more in the direction of it being another 127 Hours/Zero Dark Thirty/Les Miserables instead if that happens and still being a lower-tier Best Picture nominee. It is worth pointing out though that the two biggest exceptions that still performed about as well as the previous awards-winners from their directors are The Revenant and Roma, so doubting del Toro’s ability to do what Cuaron and Inarritu did might not be the best idea.

     

    Yes, but let’s not forget that both were Picture and Director frontrunners, even if they both ended up losing the former.

     

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    schmids
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    #1204363596

    I think if the rumours about Macbeth, Blonde and Venice thing is true, it wouldnt undermine Macbeth’s chance. I have a weird feeling Venice committee just being too snobbish towards these movies because its an “Hollywood/american production” or whatever the reason they have. Besides, how Soho could screen/premiered there over Macbeth and Blonde is beyond me (and Im saying this as someone who roots Soho to score across the board nominations)

    Why would it be because they’re ‘Hollywood’ movies when the most recent Coen Bros film premiered there?

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204363605

    I think if the rumours about Macbeth, Blonde and Venice thing is true, it wouldnt undermine Macbeth’s chance. I have a weird feeling Venice committee just being too snobbish towards these movies because its an “Hollywood/american production” or whatever the reason they have. Besides, how Soho could screen/premiered there over Macbeth and Blonde is beyond me (and Im saying this as someone who roots Soho to score across the board nominations)

    Venice wouldn’t snub Blonde or Macbeth for being “too American.” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford are as American as it gets, but played in Venice.

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204363615

    Venice wouldn’t snub Blonde or Macbeth for being “too American.” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford are as American as it gets, but played in Venice.

    yeah thanks for correcting but their snubs currently is really, really strange like unexpected

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204363620

    Wait, TLD is coming to Venice? I’m in state of shock! Fox is lurking on GD!

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    Cabelo da Shiv
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    #1204363622

    I feel like Edgar Wright could be nominated for Director even if Soho isn’t able to get in BP. The Directors’s branch hasn’t always been in synch with BP (especially these last few years) and Wright’s peers LOVE him.

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