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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor (Part 6)

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    alittle03
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    Sep 16th, 2020
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    #1204736466

    Not going to lie, I need some advice here guys. I have four I am 100 percent sure of and two that I’m iffy on: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jamie Dornan, and J.K. Simmons seem like LOCKS to me. That leaves one spot and I currently have Cooper in there but my GUT is scraming “CHOOSE Faist or Hinds”. So thoughts? I really wanna crack the top 100 this time guys 🙂

    I might suggest to wait until the BAFTA noms before finalizing, but I’d say Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, and Hinds are your definitive locks. Considering Cooper is in a Best Picture nominee, was nominated at SAG, and has numerous previous nominations, I’d say he’s probably next? And then I’d argue that the fifth spot is between Faist and Plemons: Faist because he has quite a bit of individual passion, is in a film that is arguably somewhat win-competitive for Best Picture, and he could even be nominated by the BAFTAs with how well WSS did on the longlist; Plemons because he seems to have a lot of goodwill in the industry, has been in various BP nominated films, and is in a film that is win-competitive for several categories, so it seems like a likely coattail. He also has a LFCC nom, so he could even show up at the BAFTAs, as well.

    I think only one of two Belfast boys are getting in, which makes me think Dornan is ultimately getting snubbed, especially after his BIFA snub. He doesn’t seem like a top 2 or a jury save at the BAFTAs, so with a SAG/BAFTA snub, I’d think he’s missing. Simmons is someone I’m very doubtful of, since he only has a CC nom (which he’s most likely going to lose) and no other industry nominations or significant precursor mentions. He doesn’t seem strong enough to coattail his film. I believe Leto is missing, too, because I just don’t see him being #1 for enough people to make the nomination. I don’t think it’s entirely impossible for him to make the BAFTAs, considering the absolute HOG spam on the longlist, but for the ultimate final five at the Oscars? I’d say the last two slots following Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, and Hinds are a rotation of Cooper, Plemons, and Faist.

    • FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

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    Miguel Marrero
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    #1204736607

    I might suggest to wait until the BAFTA noms before finalizing, but I’d say Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, and Hinds are your definitive locks. Considering Cooper is in a Best Picture nominee, was nominated at SAG, and has numerous previous nominations, I’d say he’s probably next? And then I’d argue that the fifth spot is between Faist and Plemons: Faist because he has quite a bit of individual passion, is in a film that is arguably somewhat win-competitive for Best Picture, and he could even be nominated by the BAFTAs with how well WSS did on the longlist; Plemons because he seems to have a lot of goodwill in the industry, has been in various BP nominated films, and is in a film that is win-competitive for several categories, so it seems like a likely coattail. He also has a LFCC nom, so he could even show up at the BAFTAs, as well. I think only one of two Belfast boys are getting in, which makes me think Dornan is ultimately getting snubbed, especially after his BIFA snub. He doesn’t seem like a top 2 or a jury save at the BAFTAs, so with a SAG/BAFTA snub, I’d think he’s missing. Simmons is someone I’m very doubtful of, since he only has a CC nom (which he’s most likely going to lose) and no other industry nominations or significant precursor mentions. He doesn’t seem strong enough to coattail his film. I believe Leto is missing, too, because I just don’t see him being #1 for enough people to make the nomination. I don’t think it’s entirely impossible for him to make the BAFTAs, considering the absolute HOG spam on the longlist, but for the ultimate final five at the Oscars? I’d say the last two slots following Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, and Hinds are a rotation of Cooper, Plemons, and Faist.

    Love this!

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    Moviebuff22
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    Jan 17th, 2016
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    #1204736682

    I think Cooper is solidly in at this point

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    vinny
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    May 20th, 2011
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    #1204736806

    I might suggest to wait until the BAFTA noms before finalizing, but I’d say Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, and Hinds are your definitive locks. Considering Cooper is in a Best Picture nominee, was nominated at SAG, and has numerous previous nominations, I’d say he’s probably next? And then I’d argue that the fifth spot is between Faist and Plemons: Faist because he has quite a bit of individual passion, is in a film that is arguably somewhat win-competitive for Best Picture, and he could even be nominated by the BAFTAs with how well WSS did on the longlist; Plemons because he seems to have a lot of goodwill in the industry, has been in various BP nominated films, and is in a film that is win-competitive for several categories, so it seems like a likely coattail. He also has a LFCC nom, so he could even show up at the BAFTAs, as well.

    I think only one of two Belfast boys are getting in, which makes me think Dornan is ultimately getting snubbed, especially after his BIFA snub. He doesn’t seem like a top 2 or a jury save at the BAFTAs, so with a SAG/BAFTA snub, I’d think he’s missing. Simmons is someone I’m very doubtful of, since he only has a CC nom (which he’s most likely going to lose) and no other industry nominations or significant precursor mentions. He doesn’t seem strong enough to coattail his film. I believe Leto is missing, too, because I just don’t see him being #1 for enough people to make the nomination. I don’t think it’s entirely impossible for him to make the BAFTAs, considering the absolute HOG spam on the longlist, but for the ultimate final five at the Oscars? I’d say the last two slots following Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, and Hinds are a rotation of Cooper, Plemons, and Faist.

    noted. Thanks 4 the assistance 🙂

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    vinny
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    #1204736808

    I’d say switch Dornan for Hinds as you Belfast guy, he’s much more of a lock. J.K Simmons hasn’t been nominated for anything except Critics’ Choice, I’d go with Cooper over him or Dornan. For the 5th spot is better pick someone from another strong contender like Faist or Plemons, even Jared Leto has a better chance to get nominated over Dornan or Simmons imo.

    . Noted. Thanks 4 the assist 🙂

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    Barbra Please
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    Oct 21st, 2018
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    #1204737250

    The Power of The Twink will win the Oscar darling.

    For Your Consideration Darling

    Lead Actress

    Michelle 'Crazy Talented' Yeoh
    EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

    Tang Wei
    DECISION TO LEAVE

    Nicole Kidman
    THE NORTHMAN

    Supporting Actor & Actress

    Ke Huy Quan
    Stephanie Hsu
    Jamie Lee Curtis
    EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204738164

    NBP has updated their predictions and now half of them have Smit-McPhee winning. Nice change from 8th December when FOR THEM he was 7th overall! 😂 😂 😂

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    Stank83
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    #1204741023

    Nah, Cooper’s SAG nomination is just a fluke.

    He won’t get in at the Oscars.

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204741035

    Nah, Cooper’s SAG nomination is just a fluke.

    He won’t get in at the Oscars.

    He will, and as soon as you accept the better. Licorice Pizza needs more noms to get in Picture and it’s not common for an actor in a Best Picture nominee to get in at SAG and then miss the Oscars.

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204741107

    Licorice Pizza needs more noms to get in Picture

    No it doesn’t. We’ve seen plenty instances of a Best Picture nominee having only 1 other nomination.

    Eventually with the 10-nominee field, we may even see a film get in with no other nomination. It’s very understandable when you consider that 1/3 of the Academy votes only on Best Picture in the nomination phase (I include the documentary, animation, and short film branches in that, since those categories are essentially irrelevant to Best Picture).

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    kamila
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    Dec 6th, 2021
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    #1204741171

    Nah, Cooper’s SAG nomination is just a fluke. He won’t get in at the Oscars.

    There are only two locks in this category. Plenty of room for a star they already love.

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1204741422

    I feel like the trajectory of this race will be: Troy Kotsur takes SAG — he makes the most sense there given their affinity for showier and more emotion-laden performances — and potentially CC (since they are ultra reactionary), while Smit-McPhee takes BAFTA and then the Oscar. Now if Smit-McPhee wins SAG, I might feel comfortable calling him a safe bet for the Oscars.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204741427

    In terms of the type of performance Kotsur makes the most sense to take the SAG but there’s something about it that just feels too good to be true (and I say this as someone who preferred Kotsur’s performance to Smit-McPhee’s, although Kodi is also excellent in his own right). I don’t know. He’s neither a veteran nor is CODA the type of populist hit SAG tends to throw a curveball towards (although I guess neither was Ma Rainey but Viola Davis).

    It will be interesting to see nonetheless (personally as long as Jared Leto doesn’t win I’ll be fine).

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1204741435

    In terms of the type of performance Kotsur makes the most sense to take the SAG but there’s something about it that just feels too good to be true (and I say this as someone who preferred Kotsur’s performance to Smit-McPhee’s, although Kodi is also excellent in his own right). I don’t know. He’s neither a veteran nor is CODA the type of populist hit SAG tends to throw a curveball towards (although I guess neither was Ma Rainey but Viola Davis). It will be interesting to see nonetheless (as long as Jared Leto doesn’t win I’ll be fine).

    Good points, wolfali. What is swaying me is the fact that CODA is insanely “accessible” (a term I don’t usually like to use but feels appropriate here). You can bet that a large majority of SAG-AFTRA can relate to Kotsur’s (and Matlin’s) characters, which might be enough to give him the edge here. What is a bit confusing to me is that Matlin couldn’t manage to snag a nomination, but I chalk that up to supporting actress being incredibly crowded.

    The Power of the Dog, on the other hand, still doesn’t strike me as something that’s going to do well with a voting body that consists of 160K members, many of whom aren’t even actors. Have they seen TPOTD? Will they take to Smit-McPhee’s subtle performance? I don’t know. That said, I’ve seen a lot of actors post about this movie on social media and have heard numerous times that even people who didn’t love the film still singled out Smit-McPhee, which is interesting.

    I also would not be shocked to see any of the other three win, to be honest. People will be quick to rule out Affleck at SAG, but this is the first time he has ever been nominated individually for an acting award by the industry (excluding his BAFTA nom for Argo). And I have to assume that there is some goodwill for him, especially after this past year.

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    wolfali
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    #1204741451

    Good points, wolfali. What is swaying me is the fact that CODA is insanely “accessible” (a term I don’t usually like to use but feels appropriate here). You can bet that a large majority of SAG-AFTRA can relate to Kotsur’s (and Matlin’s) characters, which might be enough to give him the edge here. What is a bit confusing to me is that Matlin couldn’t manage to snag a nomination, but I chalk that up to supporting actress being incredibly crowded. The Power of the Dog, on the other hand, still doesn’t strike me as something that’s going to do well with a voting body that consists of 160K members, many of whom aren’t even actors. Have they seen TPOTD? Will they take to Smit-McPhee’s subtle performance? I don’t know. I also would not be shocked to see any of the other three win, to be honest. People will be quick to rule out Affleck at SAG, but this is the first time he has ever been nominated individually for an acting award by the industry. And I have to assume that there is some goodwill for him, especially after this past year.

    The type of subtlety in Kodi’s performance (alongside the fact that he’s essentially an unknown actor to most of the voting body, althugh so is Kotsur) does make me feel uneasy about predicting him at SAG but at the same time I feel like in spite of its SAG ensemble miss, The Power of the Dog is probably one of the most visible films in contention purely because it’s on Netflix. I feel like it’s probably something a large chunk of SAG’s voting body will be more likely to check out than CODA purely because it’s on a more “accessible” platform than it (although then again I guess it’s not as if SAG hasn’t awarded Apple before). Of course a large chunk of those voters could just not care for Kodi’s performance but along with his Globe win, it just makes him feel like the most “visible” choice in that category for me.

    The Matlin miss is quite interesting because she also missed on the long-list at BAFTA in favour of smaller supporting performances and performances that are in films that aren’t factors in either the best film race at BAFTA or the Oscar race. Earlier on in the season I did feel hesitant predicting her because it just didn’t feel like the passion for her performance matched up with Kotsur’s or even Jones’ although she did make it in at the Gothams and is an Academy Award winning actress so it does still feel somewhat strange for her to miss completely with both groups. Part of me wonders if it reflects on CODA‘s strength as a film (it kind of had a performance on the BAFTA long-lists that was “ok”) or if it just suggest there wasn’t much passion behind her work to begin with.

    I agree that any of the other three can win in that SAG category and I’m keeping an eye out specifically at who makes it into the BAFTA top 2 because with how wide open the category there is after Kodi and how well their films performed on the long-list, it wouldn’t particularly surprise me if either Leto (eww) or Cooper manage to get in.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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