January 12, 2022 at 8:16 am #1204719780
The SAG nominations are beyond atrocious! Jared Leto is getting an Oscar nomination ): It’s insane!
Kodi solidifies his frontrunner status for the Oscar, which is a good thing. He’s the MVP of the movie for me. He and Troy Kotsur are now the only true locks.
Now I have no idea who will get Oscar nominations in this category – it’s a total mess! When do the BAFTA nominations come out to help clarify this category?January 12, 2022 at 8:20 am #1204719820
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee – LOCKED
2. Troy Kotsur – LOCKED
3. Ciaran Hinds – Likely
This category is the most fluid as it only has two locked. But I think at least Ciaran Hinds is getting nominated. Unless he misses a Bafta nom, I will comfortably have him in my top 3. I do think the SAG snub means Jaime Dornan is out, which I always felt was the case.
4. Mike Faist (NGNG) – I know this is risky, but I can’t help but look at the ensemble snub for West Side Story and come to the conclusion that the screeners issue played a part here. If he gets in at Bafta, I think he is in.
5. Bradley Cooper/Jared Leto (please let this be Cooper)
Ben Affleck is like Jared Leto from last year, his race ends at a SAG nomination. He wasn’t even in the Top 15 for Bafta. Speaking of Leto, he is more likely now. But I won’t be ignoring that Globe snub, and idkk, his performance is just so bad. Like I know that shouldn’t factor in my predictions, but I just feel weird slotting him in lol.
Bradley Cooper is in my top 5 now because the SAG nomination for a performance like this is a bit surprising. He also got in at AACTA over Leto and keeps showing up for critics awards nominations.January 12, 2022 at 8:21 am #1204719836
Bradley has a real shot of getting in. He has SAG and AACTA noms so far which happen to be the only 2 places where people that also vote for Oscars vote.January 12, 2022 at 8:25 am #1204719906
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee
2. Troy Kotsur
3. Jamie Dornan
4. Jared Leto
5. Ben AffleckJanuary 12, 2022 at 9:19 am #1204720397
Kodi Smit-McPhee is the only supporting actor who has appeared in all of: Critics Choice, Golden Globe, SAG, AACTA, BAFTA long list, and London Film Critics nominations.
Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.
Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,January 12, 2022 at 9:33 am #1204720506
Anyone thinking Belfast was going to keep carrying two Supporting noms, especially when the second actor is Dornan, was wishful thinking. The writing was on the wall that Dornan was weaker. It’s Hinds or nothing.January 12, 2022 at 9:48 am #1204720643
Dornan got AACTA, CC and GG, and I believe will get BAFTA + will be in the biggest movie of the night alongside Dog. He sure has a chance, more so than Affleck and maybe Cooper. He’s far from done.January 12, 2022 at 9:49 am #1204720650
Dornan got AACTA, CC and GG, and I believe will get BAFTA + will be in the biggest movie of the night alongside Dog. He sure has a chance, more so than Affleck and maybe Cooper. He’s far from done.
He’s not Top2 at BAFTA and that jury won’t touch him.January 12, 2022 at 9:49 am #1204720652
he’s coming for his 9th nomJanuary 12, 2022 at 9:54 am #1204720681
With Hinds missing SAG, looks like the BAFTA winning comments aged poorly lol. Kodi is so winning.January 12, 2022 at 9:58 am #1204720705
Here for Kodi’s sweep!!!
Oh hi again @Luca
Best Picture: Jockey
Director: Clint Bentley
Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
Film Editing: Parker Laramie
Music Score: Aaron & Bryce DessnerJanuary 12, 2022 at 10:02 am #1204720721
I honestly think your 5 in supporting actor at SAG may be your Oscar 5. I think the academy will like Licorice Pizza and we know they like to namecheck Bradley Cooper. I am skeptical of 2 actors getting in for Belfast, especially when Hinds to me is just there. If he does make it he probably bumps Leto or Cooper out. Affleck to me seems like your stereotypical feel good supporting performance that they give to a veteran for a first time nomination.
Your only absolute locks are Kodi and KotsurJanuary 12, 2022 at 10:06 am #1204720763
With Hinds missing SAG, looks like the BAFTA winning comments aged poorly lol. Kodi is so winning.
Yeah. Kodi will likely win. Also can we talk about the fact that Kirsten Dunst is more likely to win SAG? But DeBose might take it. She’s definitely on Top 2 now.Not now
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