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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

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    Stefania
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    #1204454440

    Jenkins has got this if A24 doesn’t screw up. He’s a respectable actor with many movies under his belt and a previous Oscar nomination. His competition right now are Smit-McPhee and Ciarán Hinds.

    I can’t believe people were buying into the Leto fake hype! “A real firrrrrecrackerrrr” or whatever he says, come on! He’s just good for memes… 😂

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    George Ehret
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    #1204454474

    Glad to say that Richard Jenkins is COMING!!!

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Sir Pierce
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    Feb 7th, 2019
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    #1204454523

    Jenkins has got this if A24 doesn’t screw up. He’s a respectable actor with many movies under his belt and a previous Oscar nomination. His competition right now are Smit-McPhee and Ciarán Hinds. I can’t believe people were buying into the Leto fake hype! “A real firrrrrecrackerrrr” or whatever he says, come on! He’s just good for memes… 😂

    So…

    Jared Leto will win an Oscar for his career-best performance as Luig in Super Mario Bros.: The Movie as directed by Martin Scorsese – I mean, who else would be the perfect fit to direct a film about Italian plumbers?

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    kaziz
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    #1204454528

    Jenkins has got this if A24 doesn’t screw up. He’s a respectable actor with many movies under his belt and a previous Oscar nomination. His competition right now are Smit-McPhee and Ciarán Hinds.

    I agree, and I don’t know about Hinds but Smit-McPhee (who is definitely AH-MAZING) doesn’t feel like an obvious winner for me, maybe because I’m still stuck on “wait but……Plemons was great too, just less obviously” lol. Maybe enough of AMPAS sees that with Plemons (enough critics saw it I think), maybe not.

    Either way, Jenkins has NARRATIVE! His part in the play is fab, I don’t see him screwing this up or anything, as long as he is his usual level of wonderful, I think he’s got this?

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Stefania
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    #1204454548

    So… Jared Leto will win an Oscar for his career-best performance as Luig in Super Mario Bros.: The Movie as directed by Martin Scorsese – I mean, who else would be the perfect fit to direct a film about Italian plumbers?

    The movie is about Italian plumbers and Russian spies skiing in the Alps… 😂Seriously, Germanotta should rename herself as Russianotta…

    Also, nobody dressed like that in Italy, not even in the 1980s, I don’t think so… The lilac shirt ok, but not with that jacket and the flower… 🤷🏼‍♀️

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204454560

    Also, nobody dressed like that in Italy, not even in the 1980s, I don’t think so… 

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    George Ehret
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    #1204454580

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
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    Apr 20th, 2019
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    #1204455352

    As if “Soggy Bottom” was much better lmao

    I mean, it was still shit. But it was more of a “wow that’s a shit title but kinda funny” rather than Licorice Pizza‘s “wow that’s a shit title and I’m almost kind embarrassed for everyone involved.” The former almost sounds like a butt joke, while the latter sounds like a disgusting food created in the mind of a six-year-old.

    Oscars FYC:

    Visual Effects: Free Guy

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204455552

    Supporting Actor is always the most boring category. I think right now it’s Richard Jenkins’s to lose, with Kodi and Ciaran Hinds as potentials runner ups.

    Jenkins reminds me so much of Mark Rylance in the sense of being a overdue stage actor. I think he will sweep everything. It’s like Kaluuya when everybody knew he was winning the moment he was announced in the role.

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    kaziz
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    #1204455639

    I want this category to get locked HARD before Jared Leto can slither his way in.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204455647

    Jenkins reminds me so much of Mark Rylance in the sense of being a overdue stage actor.

    Funnily enough, Martha Plimpton fits that bill pretty well too, and look how she’s being treated. (It continues to make zero sense).

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204455846

    Okay, okay, okay. Bear with me, but I think there’s a reasonable chance that Jared Leto actually wins – and I don’t honestly want him too… he’s just a good meme.

    But, like, think about it…

    As I said before, all Best Supporting Actor winners since the Best Picture expansion have been for films nominated in Best Picture, with the exception of Christopher Plummer. (I’ve researched it now and that is the case). So, why did Christopher Plummer win? He was a historically overdue career-actor. Now, one could say the very same of Richard Jenkins. However, Jenkins is slightly disadvantaged compared to Plummer, due to him not being as well known, for lack of a better way to put it. It could happen, but it’s not terribly likely, unless The Humans gets into Best Picture – an unlikely proposition, given it’s not going anywhere below the line and it’s current nominations even now aren’t really locks, tbh.

    So, who is in a pretty likely Best Picture nominee?

    Well, we have Kodi Smit-McPhee and Jesse Plemons in The Power Of The Dog. The only problem here is that neither have been particularly praised in comparison to Cumberbatch (could win) and Dunst (WILL win). And Smit-McPhee hasn’t had the career yet to back up a win in this category. In the last decade, all Best Supporting Actor winners were either long-term character actors (Leto, Ali, Rylance, Simmons, Rockwell) or leading men with a strong filmography (Kaluuya, Bale, Pitt). So, it’s unlikely for McPhee to win, besides the unlikeliness of a film winning 3/4 acting Awards in a year – which hasn’t happened since Streetcar Named Desire, I think… And Plemons is seemingly outshone by McPhee anyways, so he is not so likely to get in, regardless.

    So, then we have other films like West Side Story, Belfast and Don’t Look Up, where the Supporting contenders (Alvarez, Hinds, Rylance, Morgan, (at a push) Hill) seem to not be the best aspects of their films, but could get dragged in as a nominee, due to their film’s potential overall success. The same could, also, be said of Spencer, Dune and King Richard.

    This narrows it down a bit. So, we have Tragedy Of Macbeth next. With this one, we have Corey Hawkins, who has developed a solid career so far (somewhere in between McPhee and Plemons, probably). However, unfortunately, MacDuff is far from a great part and he is almost certainly going to be outshone by MacDormand and Washington. Add to that, the uncertainty of the film’s overall reception and it seems like he isn’t going to get in.

    Then, we have Nightmare Alley. The obvious choice here would be Willem Defoe, right? But, from what we understand, Defoe is merely a cameo within the film, so he’s probably not going to get close to a nomination. That leaves Straithairn and (again) Jenkins in this film. Now, they could happen, but, similar to Macbeth and Power Of The Dog, the main focus of the film seems to be the leading man and the actresses (who will probably go into Supporting). Therefore, although more likely than the others, it’s still kind of unlikely.

    Penultimately, we have Liqorice Pizza. This could be the one, honestly. I don’t think Benny Safdie gets in, but, even if Bradley Cooper, also, doesn’t get in, Christopher Walken, Sean Penn and Tom Waits also co-star, so it’s possible that one of them takes it. Frankly, though, Bradley Cooper seems a shoe-in here.

    Now, in every Oscar’s race there is a runner-up (or two), last year’s was Sacha Baron Cohen and Leslie Odom Jr. and the year before’s was probably Joe Pesci.

    Now, this year – Richard Jenkins – could be the runner-up.

    But… we haven’t talked about one other film yet.

    House Of Gucci.

    Based on the trailer, it’s probably secure below-the-line and it’s hard not to see Lady Gaga not getting in for lead portrayal (in spite of its potential crassness). And, if The Last Duel isn’t performing so well, Ridley might well have done better here – he’s notoriously inconsistent. And, in that trailer, Leto might have the most baity performance of the ensemble, which is saying something when you star opposite Al Pacino, master of ham. Leto literally is wearing a silly costume, silly make-up and acting with a silly accent. He, even, has an offbeat, yet somewhat compelling presence on the screen based on the trailer… Something that many of the last few Best Supporting Actor winners have had.

    And it’s not exactly as if it’s unusual for the Academy to give a Best Supporting Actor to the same actor twice within so many years. Peter Ustinov between Spartacus and Topkapi (even though he probably didn’t deserve to win for either…). Then Christoph Waltz in 2009 and 2012. And, lastly, Mahershala Ali in 2016 and 2018. All these actors are kind of eccentric and unique character actors, who have the kind of screen presence which makes them known almost as much as the movie star. This is a quality that Jared Leto has, even if he is probably a much more dislikeable individual than the others mentioned.

    It is worth noting that SAG and Globes like Leto so much that they gave him a Supporting Actor nomination for The Little Things. A film which had an abysmal reception. Therefore, if House Of Gucci is acclaimed, don’t be shocked if he somehow wins at the Globes (if they happen) or at SAG. This could then propel him to an Oscar win.

    I know it’s ridiculous and I think Richard Jenkins and Bradley Cooper – from a career-POV – are significantly more worthy of an Oscar than Jared Leto (who, at this point, would have recieved two), but…. I’ll say this: if Liqorice Pizza does not connect with the Academy, then Jared Leto is almost definitely the frontrunner, ridiculous as it seems…

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    sundin114
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    #1204455875

    Jenkins certainly lived up to his awards buzz. His performance in The Humans is so layered, intelligent and richly funny.

    As for Power of the Dog, hopefully the experts of Gold Derby will make the changes in their lineups after the film festivals to prioritize McPhee over Plemons. In addition to crafting plenty of standout moments for himself, Dunst and Cumberbatch’s best work in the film come opposite the young actor.

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204455879

    I’m sorry what. Leto is not the highly respected thespian people make him out to be. He only made it at the Globes because the HFPA loves their stars. Bill Murray was also nominated. SAG went for Leto since they don’t go for subtle performances such as Raci, Strathairn, or the child actor Alan Kim. There was no general consensus for the best supporting performance for Ma Rainey and people were divided on the second best player in Chicago 7 after SBC. If Rylance was pushed as much as SBC, Leto would be a non-factor especially when Trial 7 won ensemble there. I don’t know how Netflix campaigned their actors in that award season. There were barely any options for them to nominate someone. The Academy didn’t take the Leto bait and pulled the lead from Judas and the Black Messiah to nominate in Supporting. I treat the Leto snub as any other GG/SAG snub in the same vein as J-Lo, Amy Adams, and Mila Kunis.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204455904

    Jared Leto winning would make the Oscars the embodiment of the Bo Burnham song “Art is Dead” lol

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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