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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

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    Vincent Figueroa
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    #1204455978

    Okay, okay, okay. Bear with me, but I think there’s a reasonable chance that Jared Leto actually wins – and I don’t honestly want him too… he’s just a good meme. But, like, think about it… As I said before, all Best Supporting Actor winners since the Best Picture expansion have been for films nominated in Best Picture, with the exception of Christopher Plummer. (I’ve researched it now and that is the case). So, why did Christopher Plummer win? He was a historically overdue career-actor. Now, one could say the very same of Richard Jenkins. However, Jenkins is slightly disadvantaged compared to Plummer, due to him not being as well known, for lack of a better way to put it. It could happen, but it’s not terribly likely, unless The Humans gets into Best Picture – an unlikely proposition, given it’s not going anywhere below the line and it’s current nominations even now aren’t really locks, tbh. So, who is in a pretty likely Best Picture nominee? Well, we have Kodi Smit-McPhee and Jesse Plemons in The Power Of The Dog. The only problem here is that neither have been particularly praised in comparison to Cumberbatch (could win) and Dunst (WILL win). And Smit-McPhee hasn’t had the career yet to back up a win in this category. In the last decade, all Best Supporting Actor winners were either long-term character actors (Leto, Ali, Rylance, Simmons, Rockwell) or leading men with a strong filmography (Kaluuya, Bale, Pitt). So, it’s unlikely for McPhee to win, besides the unlikeliness of a film winning 3/4 acting Awards in a year – which hasn’t happened since Streetcar Named Desire, I think… And Plemons is seemingly outshone by McPhee anyways, so he is not so likely to get in, regardless. So, then we have other films like West Side Story, Belfast and Don’t Look Up, where the Supporting contenders (Alvarez, Hinds, Rylance, Morgan, (at a push) Hill) seem to not be the best aspects of their films, but could get dragged in as a nominee, due to their film’s potential overall success. The same could, also, be said of Spencer, Dune and King Richard. This narrows it down a bit. So, we have Tragedy Of Macbeth next. With this one, we have Corey Hawkins, who has developed a solid career so far (somewhere in between McPhee and Plemons, probably). However, unfortunately, MacDuff is far from a great part and he is almost certainly going to be outshone by MacDormand and Washington. Add to that, the uncertainty of the film’s overall reception and it seems like he isn’t going to get in. Then, we have Nightmare Alley. The obvious choice here would be Willem Defoe, right? But, from what we understand, Defoe is merely a cameo within the film, so he’s probably not going to get close to a nomination. That leaves Straithairn and (again) Jenkins in this film. Now, they could happen, but, similar to Macbeth and Power Of The Dog, the main focus of the film seems to be the leading man and the actresses (who will probably go into Supporting). Therefore, although more likely than the others, it’s still kind of unlikely. Penultimately, we have Liqorice Pizza. This could be the one, honestly. I don’t think Benny Safdie gets in, but, even if Bradley Cooper, also, doesn’t get in, Christopher Walken, Sean Penn and Tom Waits also co-star, so it’s possible that one of them takes it. Frankly, though, Bradley Cooper seems a shoe-in here. Now, in every Oscar’s race there is a runner-up (or two), last year’s was Sacha Baron Cohen and Leslie Odom Jr. and the year before’s was probably Joe Pesci. Now, this year – Richard Jenkins – could be the runner-up. But… we haven’t talked about one other film yet. House Of Gucci. Based on the trailer, it’s probably secure below-the-line and it’s hard not to see Lady Gaga not getting in for lead portrayal (in spite of its potential crassness). And, if The Last Duel isn’t performing so well, Ridley might well have done better here – he’s notoriously inconsistent. And, in that trailer, Leto might have the most baity performance of the ensemble, which is saying something when you star opposite Al Pacino, master of ham. Leto literally is wearing a silly costume, silly make-up and acting with a silly accent. He, even, has an offbeat, yet somewhat compelling presence on the screen based on the trailer… Something that many of the last few Best Supporting Actor winners have had. And it’s not exactly as if it’s unusual for the Academy to give a Best Supporting Actor to the same actor twice within so many years. Peter Ustinov between Spartacus and Topkapi (even though he probably didn’t deserve to win for either…). Then Christoph Waltz in 2009 and 2012. And, lastly, Mahershala Ali in 2016 and 2018. All these actors are kind of eccentric and unique character actors, who have the kind of screen presence which makes them known almost as much as the movie star. This is a quality that Jared Leto has, even if he is probably a much more dislikeable individual than the others mentioned. It is worth noting that SAG and Globes like Leto so much that they gave him a Supporting Actor nomination for The Little Things. A film which had an abysmal reception. Therefore, if House Of Gucci is acclaimed, don’t be shocked if he somehow wins at the Globes (if they happen) or at SAG. This could then propel him to an Oscar win. I know it’s ridiculous and I think Richard Jenkins and Bradley Cooper – from a career-POV – are significantly more worthy of an Oscar than Jared Leto (who, at this point, would have recieved two), but…. I’ll say this: if Liqorice Pizza does not connect with the Academy, then Jared Leto is almost definitely the frontrunner, ridiculous as it seems…

     

    Oh c’mon

    Good enough for me. This movie is an absolute mockery and even the director has acknowledged it. The movie is supposed to have a criminal and corruption plot and the only thing we see is bad jokes and actors who should have an Italian accent pronouncing in Russian as if it were (this the one who dares, others do not change the register for anything ) To say that The Last Duel is a bad bet when it is a movie with an impressive script, a very accomplished photography and performances of Jodie Comer and Adam Driver of an epicity rarely seen in modern cinema … it really seems that we live in alternative worlds.

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204456110

    I’m sorry what. Leto is not the highly respected thespian people make him out to be. He only made it at the Globes because the HFPA loves their stars. Bill Murray was also nominated. SAG went for Leto since they don’t go for subtle performances such as Raci, Strathairn, or the child actor Alan Kim. There was no general consensus for the best supporting performance for Ma Rainey and people were divided on the second best player in Chicago 7 after SBC. If Rylance was pushed as much as SBC, Leto would be a non-factor especially when Trial 7 won ensemble there. I don’t know how Netflix campaigned their actors in that award season. There were barely any options for them to nominate someone. The Academy didn’t take the Leto bait and pulled the lead from Judas and the Black Messiah to nominate in Supporting. I treat the Leto snub as any other GG/SAG snub in the same vein as J-Lo, Amy Adams, and Mila Kunis.

    That’s fair enough, if you feel that way. But I think it says a lot that they nominate Leto for a terribly reviewed movie. They clearly somewhat like him… And, if he’s the main supporting role in an acclaimed film, it’s not hard to imagine him getting another win, at least from the Globes.

    I don’t want it to happen.

    All I’m saying is that it makes slightly more sense than Jenkins and significantly more than pretty much all the others outside of Bradley Cooper for Liquorice Pizza.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204456112

    Oh c’mon Good enough for me. This movie is an absolute mockery and even the director has acknowledged it. The movie is supposed to have a criminal and corruption plot and the only thing we see is bad jokes and actors who should have an Italian accent pronouncing in Russian as if it were (this the one who dares, others do not change the register for anything ) To say that The Last Duel is a bad bet when it is a movie with an impressive script, a very accomplished photography and performances of Jodie Comer and Adam Driver of an epicity rarely seen in modern cinema … it really seems that we live in alternative worlds.

    Erm… You do know the reviews for The Last Duel are out now. 67% on Rotten Tomatoes… Without a shockingly big box office, it’s probably not gonna happen, outside of a nomination for Comer possibly.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
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    crabbie
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    #1204456123

    That’s fair enough, if you feel that way. But I think it says a lot that they nominate Leto for a terribly reviewed movie. They clearly somewhat like him… And, if he’s the main supporting role in an acclaimed film, it’s not hard to imagine him getting another win, at least from the Globes. I don’t want it to happen. All I’m saying is that it makes slightly more sense than Jenkins and significantly more than pretty much all the others outside of Bradley Cooper for Liquorice Pizza.

    I radically disagree. I don’t think Leto would ever win for House of Gucci even if the film got Parasite critical acclaim. The Academy has made bad choices in acting awards, but they do pay particular attention to actors’ accent work when rewarding an actor. Simply put, Leto sounds like Luigi in HoG. It’s lazy and stereotypical. He could get nominated but not win since that accent is an embarrassment to other actors who have put immense work to their dialect such as DDL, Streep, Portman, Bale, etc.

    When has an actor with egregious accent work like Leto ever won an Oscar? Maybe if there is a recent example then I could possibly buy a Leto win.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204456147

    I radically disagree. I don’t think Leto would ever win for House of Gucci even if the film got Parasite critical acclaim. The Academy has made bad choices in acting awards, but they do pay particular attention to actors’ accent work when rewarding an actor. Simply put, Leto sounds like Luigi in HoG. It’s lazy and stereotypical. He could get nominated but not win since that accent is an embarrassment to other actors who have put immense work to their dialect such as DDL, Streep, Portman, Bale, etc. When has an actor with egregious accent work like Leto ever won an Oscar? Maybe if there is a recent example then I could possibly buy a Leto win.

    It’s not that recent, but the best example of this is Sean Connery playing an Irishman or an Irish-American in The Untouchables… He literally just uses his regular extremely Scottish accent lol.

    That’s 1987, so it might be too long ago to count. And Sean Connery is a better actor than Leto, but in Supporting Actor it’s the one that comes to mind.

    And, besides, I think Cooper will win if Liqorice Pizza is a success.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

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    crabbie
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    #1204456159

    He literally just uses his regular extremely Scottish accent lol.

    That’s fine since its not a caricature accent like Leto. So Leto still loses without an exaggerated accent Oscar win precedent.

    And, besides, I think Cooper will win if Liqorice Pizza is a success.

    SAG is more willing to accept Cooper than Leto imo since SAG honors “overdue” narratives a lot more than other precursors. SAG embraced Close, Freeman, Idris Elba etc. So without SAG, Leto probably loses since no way would Critics Choice or BAFTA go for him.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204456191

    SAG is more willing to accept Cooper than Leto imo since SAG honors “overdue” narratives a lot more than other precursors. SAG embraced Close, Freeman, Idris Elba etc. So without SAG, Leto probably loses since no way would Critics Choice or BAFTA go for him.

    This is definitely true.

    Also, Cooper is in PT Anderson film. An auteur director. Something that the BAFTA of last year will probably like. So, Cooper could get in there…

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

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    Orestes
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    #1204456405

    I’m reasonably confident that Richard Jenkins is getting nominated, but I’m more doubtful of him winning now as Jayne Houdyshell seems to be getting even higher praise by critics (not to mention she’s the only cast-member reprising her role from the original play). Yes, different categories, different competition, but these things usually have a way of balancing out with the most raved performer, if anyone, gaining the most awards recognition. That’s not to say I believe Houdyshell is an instant frontrunner either, although she could be.

     

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    Crackleking
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    #1204456417

    I’m reasonably confident that Richard Jenkins is getting nominated, but I’m more doubtful of him winning now as Jayne Houdyshell seems to be getting even higher praise by critics (not to mention she’s the only cast-member reprising her role from the original play). Yes, different categories, different competition, but these things usually have a way of balancing out with the most raved performer, if anyone, gaining the most awards recognition. That’s not to say I believe Houdyshell is an instant frontrunner either, although she could be.

    I highly doubt that this film is getting any acting nominations and maybe any nominations at all. The performances are subtle and are shot in strange ways that hinder the impact of their performances. I just can’t see the academy responding well to this film and that’s even if A24 campaign it which at this point is iffy as this looks like their 3rd priority at best. Jenkins can be nominated but for Nightmare Alley instead.

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