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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 10)

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    24fanatic
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    Nov 6th, 2010
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    #1204687632

    1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
    2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
    3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
    4. Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
    5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story

    I think your Top 5 is where I’m at now as well.

    I also think Ruth Negga and Marlee Matlin could replace one or 2 of those names.

    I personally think Moreno and Balfe are the most vulnerable, but…

    I fear, in reality, that Kirsten Dunst is actually the most vulnerable to be snubbed (even though she shouldn’t be).

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1204687711

    I have seen Mass, and I cannot take any awards body seriously that ignores Dowd’s and Plimpton’s impeccable performances (same for Birney and Isaacs over in supporting actor). What’s even the point of awards if you’re gonna ignore such performances?

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    estrelas
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    #1204687713

    I have seen Mass, and I cannot take any awards body seriously that ignores Dowd’s and Plimpton’s impeccable performances (same for Birney and Isaacs over in supporting actor). What’s even the point of awards if you’re gonna ignore such performances?

    THIS. ALL OF THIS.

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1204687719

    THIS. ALL OF THIS.

    Like, I get that bigger groups probably won’t see this movie, but critics have!!! What are they doing nominating a bunch of people over Dowd and Plimpton???? They should be winning!!

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    Rachel615
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    #1204687826

    fun fact: Ever Carradine, who plays Naomi Putman on THT, is Martha Plimpton’s cousin. All these connections. We need Martha to guest-star on THT.

    Also, if curious, Ever Carradine (and by extension, Martha Plimpton) is part of the Carradine acting dynasty. Her grandfather, John Carradine, was one of the great character actors in Hollywood’s early days, appearing in many films by Cecil B. DeMille and John Ford, and her uncle Keith Carradine starred  in Robert Altman’s Nashville, while also appearing on the TV series Deadwood and Dexter, while another uncle, David Carradine, was the star of the 1970s TV series, Kung Fu, and appeared in several Scorsese films, including Mean Streets.

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1204687841

    and her uncle Keith Carradine starred  in Robert Altman’s Nashville, while also appearing on the TV series Deadwood and Dexter,

    Keith is also in The Power of the Dog!

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    FilmRoyalty
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    #1204687843

    The best acting category of the year. Even when the Oscar nods are out, it may be hard to determine winner.

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    Joe Langer
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    #1204687856

    1. Aunjanue Ellis for King Richard

    2. Ariana Debose for West Side Story

    3. Caitriona Balfe for Belfast

    4. Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog

    5. Marlee Matlin for CODA or Ruth Negga for Passing or Dame Judi Dench for Belfast or Ms.Rita Moreno for West Side Story or Meryl Streep for Don’t Look Up.

    Ellis, Balfe and Debose are in winning contention. Kirsten won’t win but is safe for a nomination. The last spot can go to anyone.

    Member of the Screen Actors Guild. Inducted in 1999.

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    laslo
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    #1204687943

    Updating my predictions today and also listing my personal favorites. Caitriona Balfe was very good but would be the weakest contender in my opinion and even though the two performances from WSS are super strong, they didn’t resonate with me that much either… In all honesty, I liked all of them at least a little bit so I wouldn’t be upset about anyone winning – I think DeBose has this in the bag tho.

    Predictions:

    1. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
    2. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
    3. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
    4. Caitriona Balfe – Belfast
    5. Ann Dowd – Mass
    6. Ruth Negga – Passing**
    7. Rita Moreno – West Side Story**
    8. Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter**
    9. Marlee Matlin – CODA**
    10. Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up**

    Personal list:

    1. Ruth Negga – Passing
    2. Dakota Johnson – The Lost Daughter
    3. Rebecca Ferguson – Dune
    4. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
    5. Marlee Matlin – CODA
    6. Martha Plimpton – Mass**
    7. Charlotte Rampling – Benedetta**
    8. Kathryn Hunter – The Tragedy of Macbeth**
    9. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard**
    10. Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter**
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    rue
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    #1204687968

    DeBose will and should win

    FYC:
    That's Where I Am by Maggie Rogers - Song of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Music Video, Best Country Song, Best Melodic Rap Performance, Best Traditional R&B Performance, Best Country Solo Performance, Best Rap Solo Performance, Best Metal Performance, Best Rock Song, Best American Roots Performance

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    Joe Langer
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    #1204688044

    DeBose will and should win

    Sure she can but you need to understand how a voting mind works. The first thing to note is that people will compare her performance to Ms. Moreno’s performance in the old version. If they think she did a better job, she’ll get the vote,if not,she won’t. The second thing to note is that Ms. Moreno herself is competing and some voters may feel that she is the one from West side story who should be recognised because she essentially came back to where it started. Like for example Rachel would not have lost if Emma was not in the same category. This is the main reason why I think Ellis has the strongest chance because she doesn’t have to compete against someone from her own film. Balfe is also at a disadvantage because some may think Dame Judi was better but I don’t think many would think that. Balfe’s performance is also the one that will resonate the most. So I think it’s a three way race between Ellis, Debose and Balfe. Kirsten dunst will most likely not win because very few people think she’s award worthy in the film and also because people think of it as the Jane Campion’s film foremost and because Benedict is so large in the film with Kodi at the end that they are the two performers that seek attention first. In a year like this, people are not going to vote for the same film in 3 acting categories and Kirsten has the least to do in the film (also because her charachter never seems as much fleshed out in the film as the others). If anyone out of the four gets snubbed on Oscar nominations morning,it will likely be her but I don’t think that will happen.The Brits may go for Dame Judi (and we know how strong the Brits are) as the fifth nominee while nostalgic voters may go for Ms.Moreno or Marlee matlin and some may go for Ruth for the last slot. At the end of the day think of whose campaign is the strongest. Kirsten has a good campaign because the film is a top contender and because she has a respected career behind her and had she got a final scene of intensity,she would have won. Debose also has a good campaign because people will think she did justice to Ms.Moreno while Ms.Moreno herself has the strongest campaign of all. Ellis has another strong narrative because she has been churning out good work for some time and people may think of it as the time to reward her a bit like Regina. Balfe has a role that will personally affect people and Dame Judi has huge respect on her side. Marlee Matlin also had a great narrative because of obvious reasons. The thing that helps her is that people will be voting for Troy kotsur and so it is almost a combination of the two. She may show up at the guild awards. Among all these strong campaigns,the one with the strongest will likely prevail. I hope this explains this category to an extent. I’ve tried my best.

    Member of the Screen Actors Guild. Inducted in 1999.

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    Dr. Manhattan
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    #1204688065

    Joe, since screeners of West Side Story aren’t going out to SAG members, do you think DeBose could miss out on a SAG nomination?

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    Joe Langer
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    #1204688072

    Joe, since screeners of West Side Story aren’t going out to SAG members, do you think DeBose could miss out on a SAG nomination?

    Screeners have not been sent to the general guild body but digital screeners of west side story have been sent to the nominating group,so they will watch the film. I don’t think she is missing.

    Member of the Screen Actors Guild. Inducted in 1999.

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    Dr. Manhattan
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    #1204688074

    Screeners have not been sent to the general guild body but digital screeners of west side story have been sent to the nominating group,so they will watch the film. I don’t think she is missing.

    Cool, thanks for letting me know!

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    Vincent Figueroa
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    #1204688240

    1. Jessie Buckley

    2. Ruth Negga

    3.  Caitriona Balfe

    4.  Ann Dowd

    5. Kathyrn  Hunter

    Would  be nice and epic. TPOD and WS only will be male nominations I think (Alvarez , Faist, Cumberbatch , Mcphee,..)

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