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January 19, 2022 at 9:58 am #1204738366
How is Jessie Buckley in? She hasn’t gotten anywhere major and The Lost Daughter is not even close to being a best picture contender.
We’re talking about the fucking BAFTAs you dumb piece of fuck.
You couldn’t be anywhere more socially dumb. Get outside the house sometimes. Talk to real people.January 19, 2022 at 10:30 am #1204738445This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 19, 2022 at 10:37 am #1204738454
I feel like if Ellis misses, it’ll be to Moreno, who could coattail off of her film. I’m personally gonna play it safe and go with DeBose, Dunst, Balfe, Negga and Ellis.
Johnny Depp is a wifebeater.January 19, 2022 at 11:00 am #1204738479
Ellis feels very 50/50 to me right now. The SAG snub is telling and I don’t feel like she’s going to make the BAFTA line-up, but GG/CC could still be enough to get her over the finish line. Hunter and Buckley have the potential to take that 5th spot, but I agree with what people have said about their various weaknesses. They both definitely deserve it though in my opinion so hopefully one of them can pull it off.
(In order of likelihood of nomination)
Very Strong Contenders:
1- Ariana DeBose
2- Kirsten Dunst
3- Caitriona Balfe
4- Ruth Negga
5- Aunjanue Ellis
Looking to Surprise:
6/7- Kathryn Hunter & Jessie Buckley (I think both make BAFTA)
8- Rita Moreno
9- Ann Dowd (If BAFTA jury helps her out 1st)January 19, 2022 at 12:03 pm #1204738628
I was just about to write a long post on why Ellis won’t miss but then I realised that even people predicting her snub know that she won’t miss and are just trying to keep the race interesting ( which is absolutely fine, it’s a predictions site after all, anything could happen)January 19, 2022 at 12:23 pm #1204738662
I think Ellis is in.January 19, 2022 at 12:58 pm #1204738721
SAG – AFTRA memberJanuary 19, 2022 at 1:44 pm #1204738835
https://mobile.twitter.com/suzford/status/1483847661925060615 SAG – AFTRA member
I’m wondering if the world flipped on its head and Negga actually wins SAG. She kinda gives me Youn Yuh-jung vibes in terms of passion (albeit Youn’s film was definitely much stronger last year than Passing is this year).
But I’m happy to see a SAG member likes her performance. Hoping she votes for her.
• FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.January 19, 2022 at 1:48 pm #1204738855
Ruth Negga when she ends up being the other person in the BAFTA top 2 after we’ve had a long debate over whether it’s Dunst or Balfe:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")January 19, 2022 at 2:18 pm #1204738941
I kinda feel that with the way the category feels so “locked” that there will be a surprise contender and I think with the way Macbeth has been surging and particularly how Hunter has been received by audiences, it could be her. Then again, this could just be me hopedicting her because she is one of my favorites right now in this race.January 19, 2022 at 3:04 pm #1204739008
A surprise contender who misses GG + SAG will show up this year. They show up every year — Raci, Stanfield, Pugh, De Tavira, Manville, etc.
And it’s more likely for that contender to appear in Supporting Actor or Supporting Actress, so that’s why Hunter and Buckley are being discussed.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.January 19, 2022 at 3:35 pm #1204739080
A surprise contender who misses GG + SAG will show up this year. They show up every year — Raci, Stanfield, Pugh, De Tavira, Manville, etc. And it’s more likely for that contender to appear in Supporting Actor or Supporting Actress, so that’s why Hunter and Buckley are being discussed.
What everyone you listed here has in common is that they were in Best Picture nominees. So unless you’re predicting The Lost Daughter or The Tragedy Of Macbeth for Best Picture, Hunter and Buckley don’t make sense. To be clear though, I’m not saying TLD and TTOM are unreasonable predictions. They can absolutely happen.
However, I retain that if someone surprises here it will be Rita Moreno who has a sentimental factor and is in a locked Best Picture nominee.
Johnny Depp is a wifebeater.January 19, 2022 at 3:35 pm #1204739082
So Jessie Buckley will take aunjaunee place ??January 19, 2022 at 6:05 pm #1204739303
I don’t see Jessie gets in unless TLD get a BP nomination, although I like her performance. I think Rita Moreno may still have a shot because WSS is a top 3 BP contender. But since King Richard is also locked for BP and Ellis only missed SAG so far (but gets in ensemble), I think Ellis is quite safe for the 3-4th spot. For the 5th place I think Ruth has the best chance to get in, then comes Cate, Ann, and Rita.Not now
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