Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 11)

[Manav Joined: Dec 21st, 2019 Topics: 50 Posts: 4945 View Predictions]

#1204739398

I’m surprised people are thinking Buckley/Hunter could surprise and not SAG Nominee and 7 time Oscar nominee Cate Blanchett.

[JV Joined: Dec 31st, 2019 Topics: 9 Posts: 4221 View Predictions]

#1204739413

Oscar nominated actors that missed SAG

2021:
Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday (late screeners)
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

2020:
Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell (late release)
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women (late screeners)
Florence Pugh – Little Women (late screeners)

2019:
Yalitza Aparicio – Roma (not eligible)
Marina de Tavira – Roma (not eligible)
Sam Rockwell – Vice
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (late screeners)
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate

2018:
Daniel Day Lewis – Phantom Thread (late screeners)
Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread (late screeners)
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
Meryl Streep – The Post (late screeners)
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

2017:
Ruth Negga – Loving
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

2016:
Matt Damon – The Martian
Tom Hardy – The Revenant
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years

2015:
Bradley Cooper – American Sniper (Late Release)
Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night
Laura Dern – Wild

2014:
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street (late screeners)
Amy Adams – American Hustle
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street (late screener)
Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine

2013:
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Amy Adams – The Master
Emanuelle Riva – Amour
Quenvezhané Wallis – Beasts of Southern Wild
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained (late screeners)
Jackie Weaver – Silvers Lining Playbook

The only movie nominated for Ensemble out of these was American Hustle, which weirdly overperformed at the Oscars.

Aunjanue Ellis missing might be one of the most shocking snubs ever at SAG, for the role she’s playing, for the movie she’s in, for the GG and CC nominations, etc. It’s unusual for a performance like this miss for a movie that, as far as I can tell, played well with SAG and it’s not a foreign movie or a debut actress, or a late release with screeners problems. It’s not like Octavia getting snubbed for The Shape of Water, which clearly wasn’t loved by actors (underperformed at both SAG and BAFTA in acting noms), or Seyfried missing for Mank, which was expected for Ensemble and didn’t get in.

I do think now that she can miss the Oscar nom, which is sad for me because I respect her and she was the MVP of the movie.

[UmOkaaayyyyy Joined: Sep 1st, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 132 View Predictions]

#1204739431

I guarantee you Hunter is not getting nominated… The people who love her are either critics or people on these boards. In the real world, the film is not being embraced as well (aside from Denzel)… It will get its deserved noms for Denzel and Cinematography and that’s it. And that’s no disrespect to Hunter’s fine work. It’s just not gonna happen.

The noms will be:
Balfe
DeBose (winner and no one even comes close)
Dunst
Ellis
Negga

The two that seem most vulnerable are Ellis and Negga, but I still think they will get in…If someone else slips in, it will probably be Moreno (who was wonderful in WSS)… I’d say Matlin and Blanchett would be the other surprises… And no, it wont be Buckley. She’s great in “Lost Daughter” but the film is also not as loved as everyone here seems to think.

I’d rank the overall top contenders’ nom chances like this:
1. Ariana DeBose
2. Kirsten Dunst
3. Caitriona Balfe
4. Ruth Negga
5. Aunjanue Ellis
6. Rita Moreno
7. Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley)
8. Marlee Matlin
9. Ann Dowd
10. Judi Dench
11. Jessie Buckley
12. Cate Blanchett (Don’t Look Up)
13. Kathryn Hunter
14. Meryl Streep
15. Martha Plimpton

[Rynd_Rawikara Joined: Aug 28th, 2021 Topics: 2 Posts: 232 View Predictions]

#1204739435

I hope to see more campaign from Ruth (or any one involved in Passing). Ruth is safe for now, but we never know.

[touchofmyfeet Joined: Dec 7th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 92 View Predictions]

#1204739736

If Hunter (should be the frontrunner) and Buckley aren’t nominated, they will be the biggest snubs of the century in this category. Unforgivable. C’mon Academy, you are not the VMA’s.

[George Papakostas Joined: Oct 30th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 24 View Predictions]

#1204739919

Cate Blanchett for Nightmare Alley is not happening then?
She just got the SAG nomination from her peers and the Oscar voters will ignore her? OK

[JV Joined: Dec 31st, 2019 Topics: 9 Posts: 4221 View Predictions]

#1204739931

georgepapakostas wrote:

Cate Blanchett for Nightmare Alley is not happening then?
She just got the SAG nomination from her peers and the Oscar voters will ignore her? OK

Cate Blanchett is the second most nominated actor at SAG (Streep is the first)

[Beastialg Joined: Sep 15th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 252 View Predictions]

#1204739938

touchofmyfeet wrote:

Hunter (should be the frontrunner) and Buckley

They are both much more deserving that the frontrunner of this category (DeBose). This would be the perfect line up for me:

1) Ruth Negga
2) Kathryn Hunter
3) Jessie Buckley
4) Ann Dowd
5) Martha Plimpton

I’m cool with Ellis, DeBose, Dunst and Balfe getting a nom, since they give very good performances although I have some problems with their movie (Balfe) or some particular things about their performances (DeBose, Dunst). I will not be rooting for any of them to win though.

[Manav Joined: Dec 21st, 2019 Topics: 50 Posts: 4945 View Predictions]

#1204739960

georgepapakostas wrote:

Cate Blanchett for Nightmare Alley is not happening then?
She just got the SAG nomination from her peers and the Oscar voters will ignore her? OK

When actresses like Streep, Kidman, Winslet, Blanchett, Mirren, Moore etc get nominated just at SAG and nowhere else, their status in the industry is a big factor for it and doesn’t necessarily mean an Oscar nomination.

[superbrats Joined: Dec 22nd, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 45 View Predictions]

#1204740066

Cate Blanchett seems like a SAG thing. If Nightmare Alley hadn’t underperformed so bad at the Oscar shortlists and BAFTA longlists I could see her getting nominated, but apparently they couldn’t care less about this movie.

[Labyrinth Joined: Feb 21st, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 437 View Predictions]

#1204740133

Ann Dowd is the winner of the Best Supporting Actress at the Houston Film Critics Awards.

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 216 Posts: 32853 View Predictions]

#1204740148

Manav wrote:

I’m surprised people are thinking Buckley/Hunter could surprise and not SAG Nominee and 7 time Oscar nominee Cate Blanchett.

Because her film is a flop…

FYC:

"The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 350 View Predictions]

#1204740358

Blanchett could hypothetically happen but I’m not considering it for a couple of reasons. Yes, she did get a SAG nom, but as Manav pointed out, SAG tends to give somewhat random nominations to veteran, well respected actresses in this category who end up missing on Oscar morning. It feels a lot like Kidman’s nomination for Bombshell 2 years ago. Secondly, Nightmare Alley is extremely weak and flopped on the BAFTA longlists. She only made the long list for a completely different performance, which also implies that there could be some serious vote splitting on the Oscar ballot that could also hurt her.

I understand why people would think she could make it but I seriously doubt it.

[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 2 Posts: 638 View Predictions]

#1204740406

I quite liked Nightmare Alley, and I would be very happy to see Blanchett get in (her nod was the only good surprise at SAG lol), but yeah, I don’t think she’s happening. Again, never say never, but this is a classic case of SAG name checking a veteran that the Oscars won’t look twice at.

FYC: PHYSICAL (Rose Byrne) THE SEX LIVES OF COLLEGE GIRLS (Amrit Kaur, Renee Rapp) YELLOWJACKETS (Samantha Hanratty, Christina Ricci) THE OTHER TWO (Drew Tarver, Helene Yorke) THE GREAT (Elle Fanning) BETTER THINGS (Pamela Adlon)

[Babylonian Joined: Aug 16th, 2021 Topics: 5 Posts: 2762 View Predictions]

#1204741522

I wouldn’t begrudge the NYFCC Best Supporting Actress winner getting an Oscar nomination at all.

FYC:

Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song