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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 11)

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204739398

    I’m surprised people are thinking Buckley/Hunter could surprise and not SAG Nominee and 7 time Oscar nominee Cate Blanchett.

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204739413

    Oscar nominated actors that missed SAG

    2021:
    Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday (late screeners)
    Amanda Seyfried – Mank
    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
    Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

    2020:
    Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell (late release)
    Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
    Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
    Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
    Saoirse Ronan – Little Women (late screeners)
    Florence Pugh – Little Women (late screeners)

    2019:
    Yalitza Aparicio – Roma (not eligible)
    Marina de Tavira – Roma (not eligible)
    Sam Rockwell – Vice
    Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (late screeners)
    Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate

    2018:
    Daniel Day Lewis – Phantom Thread (late screeners)
    Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread (late screeners)
    Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
    Meryl Streep – The Post (late screeners)
    Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

    2017:
    Ruth Negga – Loving
    Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

    2016:
    Matt Damon – The Martian
    Tom Hardy – The Revenant
    Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
    Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years

    2015:
    Bradley Cooper – American Sniper (Late Release)
    Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night
    Laura Dern – Wild

    2014:
    Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street (late screeners)
    Amy Adams – American Hustle
    Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
    Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street (late screener)
    Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine

    2013:
    Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
    Amy Adams – The Master
    Emanuelle Riva – Amour
    Quenvezhané Wallis – Beasts of Southern Wild
    Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained (late screeners)
    Jackie Weaver – Silvers Lining Playbook

    The only movie nominated for Ensemble out of these was American Hustle, which weirdly overperformed at the Oscars.

    Aunjanue Ellis missing might be one of the most shocking snubs ever at SAG, for the role she’s playing, for the movie she’s in, for the GG and CC nominations, etc. It’s unusual for a performance like this miss for a movie that, as far as I can tell, played well with SAG and it’s not a foreign movie or a debut actress, or a late release with screeners problems. It’s not like Octavia getting snubbed for The Shape of Water, which clearly wasn’t loved by actors (underperformed at both SAG and BAFTA in acting noms), or Seyfried missing for Mank, which was expected for Ensemble and didn’t get in.

    I do think now that she can miss the Oscar nom, which is sad for me because I respect her and she was the MVP of the movie.

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    UmOkaaayyyyy
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    Sep 1st, 2021
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    #1204739431

    I guarantee you Hunter is not getting nominated… The people who love her are either critics or people on these boards. In the real world, the film is not being embraced as well (aside from Denzel)… It will get its deserved noms for Denzel and Cinematography and that’s it. And that’s no disrespect to Hunter’s fine work. It’s just not gonna happen.

    The noms will be:
    Balfe
    DeBose (winner and no one even comes close)
    Dunst
    Ellis
    Negga

    The two that seem most vulnerable are Ellis and Negga, but I still think they will get in…If someone else slips in, it will probably be Moreno (who was wonderful in WSS)… I’d say Matlin and Blanchett would be the other surprises… And no, it wont be Buckley. She’s great in “Lost Daughter” but the film is also not as loved as everyone here seems to think.

    I’d rank the overall top contenders’ nom chances like this:
    1. Ariana DeBose
    2. Kirsten Dunst
    3. Caitriona Balfe
    4. Ruth Negga
    5. Aunjanue Ellis
    6. Rita Moreno
    7. Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley)
    8. Marlee Matlin
    9. Ann Dowd
    10. Judi Dench
    11. Jessie Buckley
    12. Cate Blanchett (Don’t Look Up)
    13. Kathryn Hunter
    14. Meryl Streep
    15. Martha Plimpton

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    Rynd_Rawikara
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    Aug 28th, 2021
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    #1204739435

    I hope to see more campaign from Ruth (or any one involved in Passing). Ruth is safe for now, but we never know.

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    touchofmyfeet
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2018
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    #1204739736

    If Hunter (should be the frontrunner) and Buckley aren’t nominated, they will be the biggest snubs of the century in this category. Unforgivable. C’mon Academy, you are not the VMA’s.

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    George Papakostas
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    Oct 30th, 2013
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    #1204739919

    Cate Blanchett for Nightmare Alley is not happening then?
    She just got the SAG nomination from her peers and the Oscar voters will ignore her? OK

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204739931

    Cate Blanchett for Nightmare Alley is not happening then?
    She just got the SAG nomination from her peers and the Oscar voters will ignore her? OK

    Cate Blanchett is the second most nominated actor at SAG (Streep is the first)

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    Beastialg
    Joined:
    Sep 15th, 2011
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    #1204739938

    Hunter (should be the frontrunner) and Buckley

    They are both much more deserving that the frontrunner of this category (DeBose). This would be the perfect line up for me:

    1) Ruth Negga
    2) Kathryn Hunter
    3) Jessie Buckley
    4) Ann Dowd
    5) Martha Plimpton

    I’m cool with Ellis, DeBose, Dunst and Balfe getting a nom, since they give very good performances although I have some problems with their movie (Balfe) or some particular things about their performances (DeBose, Dunst). I will not be rooting for any of them to win though.

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    Manav
    Joined:
    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204739960

    Cate Blanchett for Nightmare Alley is not happening then?
    She just got the SAG nomination from her peers and the Oscar voters will ignore her? OK

    When actresses like Streep, Kidman, Winslet, Blanchett, Mirren, Moore etc get nominated just at SAG and nowhere else, their status in the industry is a big factor for it and doesn’t necessarily mean an Oscar nomination.

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    superbrats
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    Dec 22nd, 2021
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    #1204740066

    Cate Blanchett seems like a SAG thing. If Nightmare Alley hadn’t underperformed so bad at the Oscar shortlists and BAFTA longlists I could see her getting nominated, but apparently they couldn’t care less about this movie.

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    Labyrinth
    Joined:
    Feb 21st, 2021
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    #1204740133

    Ann Dowd is the winner of the Best Supporting Actress at the Houston Film Critics Awards.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204740148

    I’m surprised people are thinking Buckley/Hunter could surprise and not SAG Nominee and 7 time Oscar nominee Cate Blanchett.

    Because her film is a flop…

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Hawk
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    Aug 16th, 2019
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    #1204740358

    Blanchett could hypothetically happen but I’m not considering it for a couple of reasons. Yes, she did get a SAG nom, but as Manav pointed out, SAG tends to give somewhat random nominations to veteran, well respected actresses in this category who end up missing on Oscar morning. It feels a lot like Kidman’s nomination for Bombshell 2 years ago. Secondly, Nightmare Alley is extremely weak and flopped on the BAFTA longlists. She only made the long list for a completely different performance, which also implies that there could be some serious vote splitting on the Oscar ballot that could also hurt her.

    I understand why people would think she could make it but I seriously doubt it.

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    Heptapod
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    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1204740406

    I quite liked Nightmare Alley, and I would be very happy to see Blanchett get in (her nod was the only good surprise at SAG lol), but yeah, I don’t think she’s happening. Again, never say never, but this is a classic case of SAG name checking a veteran that the Oscars won’t look twice at.

    FYC: PHYSICAL (Rose Byrne) THE SEX LIVES OF COLLEGE GIRLS (Amrit Kaur, Renee Rapp) YELLOWJACKETS (Samantha Hanratty, Christina Ricci) THE OTHER TWO (Drew Tarver, Helene Yorke) THE GREAT (Elle Fanning) BETTER THINGS (Pamela Adlon)

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    Babylonian
    Joined:
    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204741522

    I wouldn’t begrudge the NYFCC Best Supporting Actress winner getting an Oscar nomination at all.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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