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January 21, 2022 at 5:43 am #1204741615
I wouldn’t begrudge the NYFCC Best Supporting Actress winner getting an Oscar nomination at all.
Throughout this whole scene, my constant thought was “How on earth is she able to do that? It’s surreal.”January 21, 2022 at 7:17 am #1204741728
I guarantee you Hunter is not getting nominated… The people who love her are either critics or people on these boards. In the real world, the film is not being embraced as well (aside from Denzel)… It will get its deserved noms for Denzel and Cinematography and that’s it. And that’s no disrespect to Hunter’s fine work. It’s just not gonna happen.
People in “the real world” don’t vote on the Academy Awards and thank goodness.
Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing
Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.January 21, 2022 at 10:21 am #1204742120
I still can’t help but think Marlee Matlin will somehow be nominated, despite missing every precursor award (unless you count SAG ensemble).
It just feels like the type of surprise nomination the Academy would do.January 21, 2022 at 10:27 am #1204742139
I still can’t help but think Marlee Matlin will somehow be nominated, despite missing every precursor award (unless you count SAG ensemble). It just feels like the type of surprise nomination the Academy would do.
Who would she bump out? Balfe?
Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category
Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original SongJanuary 21, 2022 at 11:04 am #1204742182
I really don’t think Matlin’s getting nominated when she missed the Globes, missed SAG after being widely predicted to make it there, did not even make one of CC’s gazillion slots, and was shut out of BAFTA’s longlist completely. If Balfe, DeBose, Dunst, and Negga are the consensus top four, I don’t see how Matlin makes a fifth spot when the precursors have shown that she and her film are not strong enough for her to coattail and she has neither industry nor international support.
• FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.January 22, 2022 at 1:18 am #1204743212
It seems like the SAG Awards provided a bit of clarification in this category, but also added a little bit of confusion. It seems as if three women are strong locks for nominations right now: Belfast’s Caitriona Balfe, The Power of the Dog’s Kirsten Dunst and West Side Story’s Ariana DeBose.
For now, yes, with picture something of a muddle, DeBose seems comfortably out front; she won the Globe, which may not mean much this year, but also leads in critics’ prizes and is the kind of breakout discovery this category has historically been made for (see Lupita Nyong’o or Alicia Vikander, of late).
The fourth seeming lock we had, also repping a strong best-picture candidate, unexpectedly missed with the actors’ guild though: Aunjanue Ellis. But I wouldn’t rule out the King Richard scene-stealer yet, at least for a nomination. SAG loves its big stars, and presumably she missed out on a nomination there to Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), who seems to me to be on shakier ground.
I think you’re right that Ellis makes it in for the Oscar nomination despite the SAG snub. Every year there is some overlap, but the two lists never completely match up….
There are several other supporting actresses that seem more likely to land the Oscar nomination at this point [than Blanchett]. Namely, Ruth Negga, who has been racking up a slew of nominations, including SAG and the Spirit Awards. Passing doesn’t have as much steam for best picture as the rest of the films we’re talking about, but it’s clear that her performance has been noticed.
Passing hasn’t hit with awards voters anywhere outside of Negga, really, and it’s a smaller movie, so for SAG particularly to lob for it bodes well. But when you’re carrying a film’s torch by yourself, you can never be a sure thing.
It’s why another very deserving indie turn, Ann Dowd in Mass, is at this point really unlikely. There’s no campaign outside of her for that film at this stage, and she simply hasn’t hit outside of some critics’ groups, likely because it hasn’t been seen enough.
If we’re looking for other options for that fifth slot, we should look for who can pull a Marina de Tavira and surprise, with the backing of a strong overall contender. Rita Moreno will surely score some votes; her role in WSS is smaller than DeBose’s, but she is the movie’s heart in a way, and her rendition of “Somewhere” is among the big highlights. The sheer significance of honoring her, for a remake of the movie she won her Oscar for many years ago, shouldn’t be discounted either. Still, as with Belfast’s Judi Dench, the buzz may be leaning too heavily in her costar’s favor to pull off that kind of upset.
One I’ve been thinking about is another Oscar winner, Marlee Matlin. CODA is surging across-the-board, and her lesser-known costar Troy Kotsur—who, to be fair, gets the richest supporting role to play—is, as we just discussed, a lock for a nomination. Matlin’s buzz has cooled—she missed even the BAFTA longlist—but if CODA is an Academy fave, can we really count her lovely work out?
Jessie Buckley is on my radar as a potential surprise, especially if The Lost Daughter can sneak into the BP 10; she’s so fantastic in it, and manages to create this remarkable symmetry with Olivia Colman’s performance. The Tragedy of Macbeth is circling the best-picture conversation, too, and I’m not sure how you can vote for that film and not stump for Kathryn Hunter’s otherworldly turn as the Three Witches … She’d be my passion pick and another one I wouldn’t entirely rule out, even if the road is long.
I don’t know if it helps or hurts Blanchett to have two juicy, worthy performances to choose from here, but Don’t Look Up is moving in the right momentum direction, unlike Nightmare Alley.
Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
Best Adapted Screenplay: David KajganichJanuary 22, 2022 at 2:47 am #1204743262
Following the best picture reace, I believe that Balfe, Dunst and DeBose are near locks. That leaves it for the remaining two spots. For whom?
Ruth Negga – she got some critics love. SAG, Globes, Gotham, Spirit loved her. BAFTA longlist as well. Very likely
Ann Dowd – there is some passion for here, but it has cool down. Soem critics love and a Critics choice nom. Likely
Marlee Matlin – may be this year surprise. CODA is getting stronger
Aunjanue Ellis – some critics love. Best picture candidate. SAG (cast), Globes, Critics Choice nom. BAFTA longlist. Maybe
Cate Blanchett – SAG nom. BAFTA longlist for Dont Look Up. Two best picture candidates. While Dont Look Up is rising, Nightmare Alley is falling. But from the 1st of February, Nightmare Alley will be available on HBO Max. Just a week before nomination day. She MAY cancel herself out.
Jessie Buckley – can surprise on the 8th of February
Anya Taylor Joy – may surprise come nomination day
Rita Moreno – may show up on nomination day
Best Picture: The Way of The Wind
Best Director: Decision to Leave
Best Actress: TAR
Best Actor: The Whale
Best Supporting Actress: The Whale
Best Supporting Actor: Poor ThingsJanuary 22, 2022 at 4:14 am #1204743320
Finally got to watch The Power of the Dog a couple days ago and I can say that Kirsten Dunst gave such a great performance! Absolutely deserving of a nomination.January 22, 2022 at 9:17 am #1204743535
Nahhhh cause Kathryn Hunter should be WINNING best supp actress for macbeth…that performance…next level
A little bit of Magic never hurt anybody.
~ MYSTICJanuary 22, 2022 at 10:46 am #1204743643
The Top 4 is solid.
5th slot is between Ellis (CC, GG, Bafta Longlist), Moreno (CC, could have gotten SAG if late didn’t screeners hurt her, Bafta Longlist), and Hunter (Bafta long-list, late-breaker, passion).
Dowd is not happening. She was clearly a jury pick for the Bafta longlist and missed both GG and SAG.
Buckley missed CC, SAG, and GG. GG is the worst snub for her since they nominated TLD in Directing too.January 22, 2022 at 11:43 am #1204743728
If we lived in a fair world, Park Yoo-Rim would be a sole frontrunner. Her four key scenes: audition, dinner, rehearsal and performance are some of the best showcases of acting I’ve seen in quite a while, and I’m really not one for hyperboles.
Drive My Car was her first film performance and she unfortunately only got a single mention by the ICS. Such an exhilarating performance that also serves as an compendium of the film’s main motifs should be getting more attention. I know that her pulling a Marina de Tavira is virtually impossible by now, but it’d be so deserving.January 22, 2022 at 11:47 am #1204743740
Buckley missed CC, SAG, and GG. GG is the worst snub for her since they nominated TLD in Directing too.
She did. But none of those groups nominated the film for Best Picture (the Globes didn’t even nominated Gyllenhaal’s screenplay).
I don’t think The Lost Daughter is going to become a juggernaut of a contender but it does feel quite significant that it performed really well on the BAFTA long-lists (getting mentioned in film, director, screenplay, multiple crafts) in a way not many of the films in the best film long-list have. I’ve mentioned how I could see Kathryn Hunter pulling a Lesley Manville and cracking in as late-breaker with TTOM after having been the recipient of so much critical passion but I can just as well see that happen with Buckley instead. Like Manville she feels like someone who has developed a lot of industry goodwill in recent years and interestingly enough their performances with critics hasn’t been too dissimilar (Manville had 8 critics nominations compared to Buckley’s 11, both got in with the London film critics, both placed in the top 3 with the NSFC).
"The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.January 22, 2022 at 12:06 pm #1204743754
so ellis is kinda done now ?? after the sag snub ??January 22, 2022 at 1:25 pm #1204743867
I dont understand why people think Ellis is not getting nominated anymore for King Richard after getting snubbed at SAGs. She will be nominated at the Oscars I have no doubt and let’s not forget that only a couple of years ago Regina King won Supporting Actress at the Oscars even after being snubbed at not only the SAGs but the BAFTAs too, so I’m sure Ellis will be fine.Not now
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