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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 2)

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    Coltrane
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    #1204423047

    I got a lot of my tea from our DMs, Coltrane lol

    Yes, indeed. 🙂

    I read the screenplay first, which was lovely. Maggie Gyllenhaal is a talent. I’m tentative to say too much, but I will be betting highly on Olivia Colman 🙂 From the films I’ve seen to date, anyway.

    It’s true that Dakota Johnson’s part is bigger. She is hardly a reserved character, showy and fun, rather! She was obviously cast with her strengths in mind. Both her and Jessie Buckley are wonderful. I can’t say who is more likely. Buckley gets pivotal moments. Johnson gets a whole canvas! In my personal opinion, Johnson is perhaps more likely. Not because she’s better, but as a woman and mother, she’s a sharp contrast to older and younger Leda.

    That is just my opinion 🙂 If I’m honest, after watching the film, we conversed only about Colman. I don’t know how others feel.

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    Coltrane
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    #1204423049

    Oh, so many smiley faces. Must restrain myself.

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    crabbie
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    I’ve yet to be bowled over by her like with Buckley,

    Yeah I think this is the primary reason why Buckley is so widely predicted over Johnson. I agree with you Johnson has range and has tackled multiple genres. But I guess I would never consider her performances to be nomination worthy compared to Buckley’s Wild Rose and I’m Thinking of Ending Things. But maybe Johnson needs to work with the right director to produce a truly remarkable performance. Luca Gudagnino is an auteur who has challenged her as an actor. Though I did find her underwhelming in Suspiria, I attribute it to the film being absolutely awful and too ambitious.

    This will be Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut but I get the impression she will also challenge Johnson since The Lost Daughter has a lot of meat and baity material. Johnson could muster a nomination similar to Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air as an actress who’s always been capable but given the right role completely blows it out of the park.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    Though I did find her underwhelming in Suspiria, I attribute it to the film being absolutely awful and too ambitious.

    Definitely atrocious film, but I personally found her to be as good as she could possibly be. It was such a strange role, it required such strange changes in her character. She was just as good as JLaw in mother! for me, I’ll say that! I disliked both films and find both performances more or less on par. God both of them went on and on and on and on…

    It’s true that Dakota Johnson’s part is bigger. She is hardly a reserved character, showy and fun, rather! She was obviously cast with her strengths in mind. Both her and Jessie Buckley are wonderful. I can’t say who is more likely. Buckley gets pivotal moments. Johnson gets a whole canvas! In my personal opinion, Johnson is perhaps more likely. Not because she’s better, but as a woman and mother, she’s a sharp contrast to older and younger Leda.

    Yeah this is kinda what I imagined. Nina (Johnson) is pretty larger-than-life, in that vivacious way that Johnson knows how to be and we’ve seen her be. If it’s a film that hits broadly, I don’t see why not. I don’t think either her or Buckley are going against type here, I can pretty clearly imagine them in their roles!

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    Coltrane
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    I would perhaps caution against the idea that either supporting lady is a certainty.

    Primarily because Olivia Colman is so breathtaking, she dominated my thoughts even when surrounded by a wonderful ensemble, including Dakota and her adorable daughter. I am predicting both myself, because it’s early, but I wouldn’t want my opinion to affect yours too much!

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    kaziz
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    #1204423086

    This will be Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut but I get the impression she will also challenge Johnson since The Lost Daughter has a lot of meat and baity material. Johnson could muster a nomination similar to Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air as an actress who’s always been capable but given the right role completely blows it out of the park.

    That’s actually a REALLY good comparison! I think Kendrick has given some great performances, but she usually just gets on my nerves lol

    And yeah, I’m definitely going for both The Lost Daughter and Passing in Adapted because…why not dream big 😋

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    crabbie
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    I suspected Olivia Colman will be the dominant force of her film. Had she not been such a recent winner I would predict the win for this easily. I do have to wonder if Buckley playing a younger version of Colman’s character can detract her chances since a lot of supporting nominees are often lauded for their strong chemistry with the lead playing opposite against each other. And well it’s physically impossible for Buckley to play opposite of Colman because she’s the younger character of her.

    I appreciate your insight on Dakota’s character, Coltrane! At the moment I think I will trust Dakota to churn a good performance and she is more likely to be nominated than Buckley for the sharp contrast between Johnson and Colman. The both of them will have intense scenes together that will ooze radiance. Reminds me a lot of the Ronan and Pugh endearing dynamic producing nominations for both of them.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    Coltrane
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    I suspected Olivia Colman will be the dominant force of her film. Had she not been such a recent winner I would predict the win for this easily. I do have to wonder if Buckley playing a younger version of Colman’s character can detract her chances since a lot of supporting nominees are often lauded for their strong chemistry with the lead playing opposite against each other. And well it’s physically impossible for Buckley to play opposite of Colman because she’s the younger character of her. I appreciate your insight on Dakota’s character, Coltrane! At the moment I think I will trust Dakota to churn a good performance and she is more likely to be nominated than Buckley for the sharp contrast between Johnson and Colman. The both of them will have intense scenes together that will ooze radiance. Reminds me a lot of the Ronan and Pugh endearing dynamic producing nominations for both of them.

    My pleasure! Again, I would certainly caution against taking me too seriously, for I am often very wrong.

    For instance, I was surprised to see the test reactions to “Spencer,” but I am delighted by them!

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    kaziz
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    My pleasure! Again, I would certainly caution against taking me too seriously, for I am often very wrong.

    For instance, I was surprised to see the test reactions to “Spencer,” but I am delighted by them!

    Oh dip I meant to ask you about that because George mentioned you’d seen that too. Anything you haven’t seen???

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    George Ehret
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    Hmmmm OK.

    I guess Johnson getting more to work with is something to consider. I figured Colman being more of a standout would be the thing. Is Johnson better than Buckley? Is it possible they snag a double nomination if the movie hits? Maybe that’s something to consider.

    FYC
    Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

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    crabbie
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    Oh and what a coincidence it is to have Passing and The Lost Daughter in the award race. Both are Netflix films directed by women in their first directorial debut adapted from novels that contain complex internal female characters. My only wish is for both the Thompson-Negga and Colman-Johnson/Buckley pairs to get nominated. Unfortunately I only see one of these pairs getting in but hopefully I’m wrong since these performances seem to be such nuanced and inspiring roles that should be recognized by the Academy.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    alittle03
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    People like comebacks. Look at the conversation about Halle Berry. Both she and Matlin are singular trailblazers without anyone following behind. Which makes their historic wins less breakthroughs and more so novelty and curios.

    I agree to some extent. I suppose, for me personally, I feel Halle Berry might be in a different situation. Her film has a better release date, her film is being distributed by Netflix, she has this narrative of creating her own opportunities and self-directing, and I’m sure she’s one of the more likely WOC contenders this season (even though I hate to reduce WOC actresses’ path to the Oscars down to just their identity).

    I feel Matlin could have a comeback narrative, but I just don’t see her film being strong enough to justify her being #2 in so many predictions or to survive the onslaught of strong contending Supporting Actress players that will eventually be showing up in stronger movies with better release dates with better distributors.

    I am, of course, always happy to be wrong because Matlin is a terrific actress. Also, the fall festivals aren’t even here yet, so no one could definitively say she couldn’t make it. But when I look ahead and imagine the final 5, I have reservations about Matlin making it into that quintet.

    • FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

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    kaziz
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    Hmmmm OK.

    I guess Johnson getting more to work with is something to consider. I figured Colman being more of a standout would be the thing. Is Johnson better than Buckley? Is it possible they snag a double nomination if the movie hits? Maybe that’s something to consider.

    God I really REALLY hope this film hits big, big enough to be a BP contender and at least have both Buckley and Johnson in play during the season. Buckley is inevitable & Johnson is sort of the underdog I root for lol, I was so happy when she got the part.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    kaziz
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    Oh and what a coincidence it is to have Passing and The Lost Daughter in the award race. Both are Netflix films directed by women adapted from novels that contain complex internal female characters. My only wish is for both the Thompson-Negga and Colman-Johnson/Buckley pairs to get nominated. Unfortunately I only see one of these pairs getting in but hopefully I’m wrong since these performances seem to be such nuanced and inspiring roles that should be recognized by the Academy.

    YES. YES. YES. YES. I mean everything after “unfortunately…” makes me sad because you’re probably right but I have all 4 in my predix right now at least lololol.

    But at least Negga has a shot at the win. From what people have said about Thompson, it seems I’m trying too hard to make it happen despite the evidence but if it does, I doubt she’ll win, and same for Buckley and Johnson. Like, even if Colman loses, I don’t think that magically gives steam to one of them.

    Also I know that Campion is the big dog in Adapted Screenplay, but since she’s basically a near-lock for Director, I’d rather see Rebecca Hall or Maggie Gyllenhaal take it. It would be a huge boon to them as directors, Greta Gerwig-style!

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    crabbie
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    #1204423149

    But at least Negga has a shot at the win.

    Yes I agree to this to the fullest extent. It looks like Dunst vs Negga to me. But at the same time I think that’s too much Netflix competition so maybe it’s Dunst/Negga vs Collette/Mara or Dench? Either way this category to me is just as exciting as actress!

    YES. YES. YES. YES

    Another similarity between the two films is that they’re both directorial debuts! If The Lost Daughter is a period piece that’s another similarity haha.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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