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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 3)

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    GD
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    #1204468777

    After seeing Belfast, Balfe is a clear nominee and a possible winner. She was fantastic

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    kbc
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    Indiana represent!

    Oscar contenders “Belfast,” “King Richard,” “The Power of the Dog” and “Spencer” will be screened at the Indianapolis film festival.

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    KB93
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    #1204468794

    Balfe is an unknown, huge unknown,  literally had to just google who she was. She’s more of an unknown than Comer, she’s literally only being talked about on here. There’s no way she’s winning this thing when you have far bigger names who are in contention here for their first win, far bigger, Dowd, Dunst, Collette, Mara etc.
    Mariah said it best:

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    Lucas
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    #1204468796

    I just watched The Power of the Dog, and Dunst was fantastic and the MVP imo, but I do not see her winning. Her character (like pretty much every character in the movie) needed more space to breathe imo. The nomination will be her reward I guess.

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    crabbie
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    #1204468802

    Balfe is an unknown, huge unknown, literally had to just google who she was. She’s more of an unknown than Comer, she’s literally only being talked about on here. There’s no way she’s winning this thing when you have far bigger names who are in contention here for their first win Mariah said it best:

    I don’t support the dragging, but the other points of Balfe being unknown are valid. The Supporting Actress winners aren’t exactly kind to newcomers and have been dominated by veterans and well known industry actresses like Dern, King, Davis, Hathaway, and Janney. Yuh Jung-Youn won this year, but she is a legend veteran in Korea and had quite the narrative this year especially when the Parasite actors were all snubbed the previous year. Lupita was a newcomer but she played one of the most baitiest roles in cinema (not to peg her performance and never would since she’s one of the best winners!).

    Balfe’s nomination will be her reward and a welcome to the club nomination. We are more likely to see an experienced veteran like Collette or Ellis win. Or an actress that has been in the industry for a while such as Dunst, Mara, Negga, or Buckley win.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204468804

    I just watched The Power of the Dog, and Dunst was fantastic and the MVP imo, but I do not see her winning. Her character (like pretty much every character in the movie) needed more space to breathe imo. The nomination will be her reward I guess.

    Didn’t everybody say that about Regina King too? And Dern, and, well, a lot of winners in supporting who aren’t co-leads (which, for me, Dunst is, but not for you clearly).

    I guess 49% screen time isn’t enough for you for Dunst lol, but actually I do kiiiind of agree. I wish the whole movie were like 20 minutes longer, every single character could’ve gotten a bit more shading OR they could’ve shaded out McKenzie/Beach/Conroy. But imo with the time they did have they packed in everrrrrry single detail they could about their characters.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204468808

    I don’t support the dragging, but the other points of Balfe being unknown are valid. The Supporting Actress winners aren’t exactly kind to newcomers and have been dominated by veterans and well known industry actresses like Dern, King, Davis, Hathaway, and Janney. Yuh Jung-Youn won this year, but she is a legend veteran in Korea and had quite the narrative this year especially when the Parasite actors were all snubbed the previous year. Lupita was a newcomer but she played one of the most baitiest roles in cinema (not to peg her performance and never would since she’s one of the best winners!).

    Balfe’s nomination will be her reward and a welcome to the club nomination. We are more likely to see an experienced veteran like Collette or Ellis win. Or an actress that has been in the industry for a while such as Dunst, Mara, Negga, or Buckley win.

    I kind of feel like……Balfe has enough support to get into lead, I don’t know why they would pull a Mass because I don’t think she’s WINNING either of them. If Belfast is so strong……again, WHY not? (A lot of people on Twitter are like: “pencil in Dornan”, they mean for lead, but I’m like “wait but then…..Balfe MORE!” lol). I don’t think both Balfe & Dench are getting into supporting, so run Balfe lead! Sorry don’t buy it.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    KB93
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    #1204468813

    I don’t support the dragging, but the other points of Balfe being unknown are valid. The Supporting Actress winners aren’t exactly kind to newcomers and have been dominated by veterans and well known industry actresses like Dern, King, Davis, Hathaway, and Janney. Yuh Jung-Youn won this year, but she is a legend veteran in Korea and had quite the narrative this year especially when the Parasite actors were all snubbed the previous year. Lupita was a newcomer but she played one of the most baitiest roles in cinema (not to peg her performance and never would since she’s one of the best winners!). Balfe’s nomination will be her reward and a welcome to the club nomination. We are more likely to see an experienced veteran like Collette or Ellis win. Or an actress that has been in the industry for a while such as Dunst, Mara, Negga, or Buckley win.

    AND Lupita barely won that award, like barely, but You make a much more valid point to what I was saying. Do unknowns happen? Sure, but rarely and especially like you said in the supporting category. Her reward will the nomination indeed, again this is all just speculation, but the raves people go on about on here, they aren’t in the reviews but I understand art is subjective.
    and what I’m about to say may start a war crabbie, but you know Imma say it! Lupita wouldn’t have won that Oscar if Lawrence didn’t win for SLP.

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    crabbie
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    #1204468830

    I kind of feel like……Balfe has enough support to get into lead, I don’t know why they would pull a Mass because I don’t think she’s WINNING either of them. If Belfast is so strong……again, WHY not? (A lot of people on Twitter are like: “pencil in Dornan”, they mean for lead, but I’m like “wait but then…..Balfe MORE!” lol). I don’t think both Balfe & Dench are getting into supporting, so run Balfe lead! Sorry don’t buy it.

    I actually feel like Balfe can’t make it in lead even if Belfast is super strong. The child is the heart of the film at the end of the day. I don’t know I don’t buy Balfe winning with this type of sympathetic mother role if her character lacks depth. Yuh-Jung Youn played the sympathetic grandma, but THAT scene where she leaves the burning house secured her that Oscar from the start. You’ve seen Belfast, does Balfe have similar bait scenes to that?

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    BigJay2012
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    #1204468835

    As much as I love to read your posts, I disagree here. I think Ellis’ raves are worthy enough and she fits the profile of a hard-working veteran actress such as Regina King, Patricia Arquette, Octavia Spencer, Melissa Leo rewarded in supporting.

    Agreed. She has always been amazing, but these last few years she has been putting out some fantastic overlooked performances. She should have been Emmy nominated/potentially won for The Clark Sisters movie, among other films. And she’s Emmy nominated this year again for Lovecraft. She’s coming.

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    crabbie
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    #1204468838

    and what I’m about to say may start a war crabbie, but you know Imma say it! Lupita wouldn’t have won that Oscar if Lawrence didn’t win for SLP.

    I agree with you only because the industry was so WILLING to reward Jlaw as soon as possible. So if she didn’t win for SLP, she would probably win for American Hustle. And if she didn’t win for AH, she would win for Joy and keep getting nominated until she wins.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Babygirl
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    #1204468840

    I actually feel like Balfe can’t make it in lead even if Belfast is super strong. The child is the heart of the film at the end of the day. I don’t know I don’t buy Balfe winning with this type of sympathetic mother role if her character lacks depth. Yuh-Jung Youn played the sympathetic grandma, but THAT scene where she leaves the burning house secured her that Oscar from the start. You’ve seen Belfast, does Balfe have similar bait scenes to that?

    I’ve seen Belfast and I disagree with this. I think she could very much make it in Lead, she just won’t win (for obvious reasons). Also, there’s a reason almost everyone who has seen it so far thinks she’s the MVP, she (along witn the boy) is the heart of the film and her character definitely doesn’t lack depth imo. Her Oscar clips are more traditional and they are reasonably baity, she definitely can win if she goes supporting.

    2x Academy Award loser GODma Stone
    Future EGOTer BilLORD Eilish

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    Diogo Duarte
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    #1204468844

    I think Belfast is winning one of the two supporting categories.

    about Balfe, she has a strong and noisy fan base on twitter/facebook and three Golden Globe nominations for Outlander. But ok, I don’t think it matters.

    It’s not as if Tomei, Sorvino, Swank, Hudson, Nyongo, Monique, Spencer, Vikander or even Larson didn’t fit that same “not well known enough, just a nomination is already a win” line.

    It’s not how it works. It’s not like every year the academy should award veteran actresses or actresses only based in her status in indunstry. Balfe has the role (the brave and emotional mother – heart of the film), has a top3 contender for Best Picture and has british appeal. If they fall in love for Belfast and this character/performance, nothing will stop her for a win. believe

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    crabbie
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    #1204468848

    It’s not as if Tomei, Hudson, Nyongo, Monique, Spencer, Vikander or even Larson didn’t fit that same “not well know enough, just a nomination is already a win” line.

    Hudson sang and dance in Dreamgirls. Nyongo, Larson, and Spencer played one of the most baitiest roles ever. Vikander had quite the year with Ex Machina and The Danish Girl where she was double nominated at the Globes and BAFTA. Balfe could certainly win, but being an unknown competing with more well known industry actors will hurt her since her role is not traditional bait that was able to overcome their “not well known enough” barrier.  Belfast  would need to be a top 2 Best Picture contender for Balfe to win.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Babygirl
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    #1204468852

    Belfast  would need to be a top 2 Best Picture contender for Balfe to win.

    You say this like it won’t be.

    2x Academy Award loser GODma Stone
    Future EGOTer BilLORD Eilish

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