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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 3)

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    kaziz
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    I actually feel like Balfe can’t make it in lead even if Belfast is super strong. The child is the heart of the film at the end of the day. I don’t know I don’t buy Balfe winning with this type of sympathetic mother role if her character lacks depth. Yuh-Jung Youn played the sympathetic grandma, but THAT scene where she leaves the burning house secured her that Oscar from the start. You’ve seen Belfast, does Balfe have similar bait scenes to that?

    Mmmm my opinion is tricky: it may give me less or more credibility because I really don’t like the film lol

    I think Balfe’s the best part of it! I love Dornan, I really do, and his part is (imo) better and he was great, but Balfe kind of makes lemonade out of…nothing? lol it’s quite an “America’s sweetheart is born” kind of performance and I think she’d get in anywhere (meh, I don’t care if it’s fraud)

    Ofc: the only other Best Actress contenders I’ve seen are Chastain & Hudson.

    So yes, I think she’d get in Lead (and arguably should, honestly! I don’t like the film but I’m very more impressed by how she stood out. Don’t think she’s winning in supporting though. Not over Dunst, Negga, Buckley, maybe Dowd and/or Plimpton, Ellis. Especially given that she’s very unlikely to be a critics choice here over any of these other ladies, but that’s true in Lead too. Both categories are full of very complex almost co-lead performances from actors with huge narratives.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    Yuh-Jung Youn played the sympathetic grandma, but THAT scene where she leaves the burning house secured her that Oscar from the start.

    It’s not that Balfe doesn’t have nuance, she does, that’s the thing that makes her GOOD, she more or less makes that entirely by herself lol (the film does Dornan bigger favors). But she’s no match for Yuh-Jung Youn’s complexity. I don’t think Youn won solely on the basis of being sympathetic of course, she was much more complicated than that.

    Again: she doesn’t have what Dunst has. Dunst has obvious Oscar bait scenes, and the rest are all scenes people will return to and be like “oh…wait”. And she’s not just sympathetic, she’s almost pathetic or just…more. From all accounts, so do Negga & Buckley & Dowd & Plimpton. I dunno about Ellis, can’t remember the reviews pinpointing particular scenes.

    Balfe is fundamentally different in complexity to Youn, King, Janney, Davis, Arquette, Hathaway, Nyong’o…basically everyone whether or not I liked their performance. It’s like asking for Octavia Spencer to win for The Shape of Water, honestly: Spencer is FAB, but it’s not an Oscar-winning role.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Diogo Duarte
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    #1204468873

    Hudson sang and dance in Dreamgirls. Nyongo, Larson, and Spencer played one of the most baitiest roles ever. Vikander had quite the year with Ex Machina and The Danish Girl where she was double nominated at the Globes and BAFTA. Balfe could certainly win, but being an unknown competing with more well known industry actors will hurt her since her role is not traditional bait that was able to overcome their “not well known enough” barrier. Belfast would need to be a top 2 Best Picture contender for Balfe to win.

    She is the heart of a crowdpleasure. She plays the typical mother struggling to keep the family together and etc… How is that not enough baity? Especially if Belfast wins Best Picture…

    Dowd is obviously just a solo nomination and Toni might (or probably) not have a juicy role/screen time enough for a win

     

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    crabbie
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    #1204468878

    She plays the typical mother struggling to keep the family together and etc… How is that not enough baity?

    Balfe’s role is baity, but it’s not quite as baity as unknown actresses who won playing a tormented slave, racially oppressed maid, and kidnapped mother. We have seen the sympathetic mother role frequently before who have lost (Scarjo, Bates in Richard Jewell, Metcalf, Kidman in Lion). List goes on.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    KB93
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    #1204468883

    I think Belfast is winning one of the two supporting categories. about Balfe, she has a strong and noisy fan base on twitter/facebook and three Golden Globe nominations for Outlander. But ok, I don’t think it matters. It’s not as if Tomei, Sorvino, Swank, Hudson, Nyongo, Monique, Spencer, Vikander or even Larson didn’t fit that same “not well know enough, just a nomination is already a win” line. It’s not how it works. It’s not like every year the academy should award veteran actresses or actresses only based in her status in indunstry. Balfe has the role (the brave and emotional mother – heart of the film), has a top3 contender for Best Picture and has british appeal. If they fall in love for Belfast and this character/performance, nothing will stop her for a win. believe

    Those actresses you mentioned (outside of Sorvino, Tomei, Hudson, what a terrible choice for a nomination btw) were in extremely baity roles. Is Balfes role really baity? Why, because it’s a musical? I don’t think so. How many musicals with women playing mothers have come and gone before her? If we’re being honest, it’s just fans pushing her narrative. There’s nothing wrong with it at all, but it’s also like me saying Chastain is a lock for the W, it’s that stanning that gets in our way.

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    kaziz
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    #1204468885

    She is the heart of a crowdpleasure. She plays the typical mother struggling to keep the family together and etc… How is that not enough baity? Especially if Belfast wins Best Picture…

    Dowd is obviously just a solo nomination and Toni might (or probably) not have a juicy role/screen time enough for a win

    Because baity is obsolete & the archetype as being enough is an outdated idea. Every year people in these archetypes, from Claire Foy in First Man to Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour, fail to get in. Don’t get me wrong: I think Balfe will get in here (and Lead too, but whatever), but for every year’s winner I see someone playing some a more typical character trope we call “Oscar bait”: long-suffering wife, sympathetic mother, scene-stealing femme fatale, wisecracking sidekick, strong professional woman in male environment. Bait is kinda useless to me here.

    Balfe is wonderful and yes in a frontrunner. But it’s precisely the archetype that makes her feel like an odd winner.

    [Archetype] + [Oscar frontrunner] = it’s not a formula to win otherwise Seyfried, de Tavira, Spencer, Harris, McAdams would’ve just swept.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    FreemanGriffin
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    Feb 19th, 2012
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    #1204469290

    I just don’t think Ann Dowd is going to win for Mass. I will be rooting for a second Oscar for Judi Dench for Belfast. I will be very disappointed if Olga Merediz isn’t nominated for In the Heights – she won’t win but boy she deserves to be nominated for her wonderful performance!

    It is possible that Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) and Catriona Balfe (Belfast) might wind up in the Supporting Actress category.

    Even though she has very limited screen time I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Audra McDonald were to get a nomination – similar to Judi Dench in Shakespeare in Love and Beatrice Straight in Network (both winners) who had very little screen time but made a large impact with the material they had in their films.

    My current predictions as of September 19th:

    Judi Dench, Belfast
    Ann Dowd, Mass
    Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
    Marlee Matlin, CODA
    Olga Merediz, In the Heights

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