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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 4)

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    WildChalice
    Joined:
    Apr 22nd, 2017
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    #1204485251

    1.) Ann Dowd

    2.) Kirsten Dunst

    3.) Judi Dench

    4.) Marlee Martin

    5.) Aunjaune Ellis

    6.) Ariana DeBose

    7.) Ruth Negga

    8.) Jayne Houdyshell

    9.) Rooney Mara

    10.) Meryl Streep

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    Piper Halliwell
    Joined:
    Oct 20th, 2019
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    #1204485272

    True. I find it a little strange what criteria people use to “evaluate” supporting performances on GD. The criticism of Dunst (that obviously not everyone agrees with because no one’s seen the same film) is that she doesn’t have as much to do? With 49% screentime and being in supporting and many many “Oscar scenes” as well as a performance with immense nuance and depth and intrigue/mystery, it feels like people wanted her…..to be a lead? (I personally feel like all 4 really are co-leads, but even if you don’t…this is supporting lol). I’ve seen the same argument from Dowd fans about Negga, Ellis, Buckley, Johnson, Hunter, Dench etc. But Dowd is DEFINITELY a co-lead and she’s in basically the whole film! Now I have my own reasons for liking/disliking these other performances & I agree that co-leads benefit more often than not but there’s plenty of truly supporting performances (Youn, Dern, King, Janney) that have won recently so………ummm. This category is such stealth though lol. Dowd may not even get nominated and even with all that passion she doesn’t have Smith/Stewart odds. We def have a stealth frontrunner, people just don’t wanna admit it because presumably they think it’s just narrative (it’s not). Particularly because she’s the most likely acting winner from a BP frontrunner even in GD odds. Glad she’s not Seyfried though.

    I don’t see much chatter about Dowd other than on GD lol Back in the day when I wasn’t yet a member but followed the forums, I remember that GD was predicting Margo Martindale for August until the very final minute they had to realize that she’s not happening lol

    I see Dunst, Negga, Ellis, Dench(/Balfe), (McDormand) as good possibilities. Collette and DeBose as a late breakthrough. Hawkins and Hunter as a maybe if Spencer and Tragedy of Macbeth over-performs.

    I have zero confidence in Dowd, Houdyshell or Matlin, very little in Mara, Buckley/Johnson.

    FYC 2022 Emmys:

    Best Actress in a Drama Series: Sandra Oh in "Killing Eve"

    Best Actress in a Comedy Series: Sandra Oh in "The Chair"

    Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Kim Joo-ryoung in "Squid Game"

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204485565

    I don’t see much chatter about Dowd other than on GD lol Back in the day when I wasn’t yet a member but followed the forums, I remember that GD was predicting Margo Martindale for August until the very final minute they had to realize that she’s not happening lol

    I see Dunst, Negga, Ellis, Dench(/Balfe), (McDormand) as good possibilities. Collette and DeBose as a late breakthrough. Hawkins and Hunter as a maybe if Spencer and Tragedy of Macbeth over-performs.

    I have zero confidence in Dowd, Houdyshell or Matlin, very little in Mara, Buckley/Johnson.

    I doubt McDormand is here but it doesn’t matter because I don’t think she’ll be winning regardless (unless she’s somehow found a way to top Nomadland, totally possible, and in which case — good god, woman, what is your SECRET!)

    But as for the others, I’m feeling like……..Negga is the biggest challenger of Dunst? A really good one, but I feel like I want Passing to be talked about more in BP before I say OK she’s def in a better place.

    This Balfe/Dench situation is hilarious. Either they kick out the biggest star of their film or they have an actual shot at winning (it’s slight though. Balfe would have to win based on sheer charisma, which is doable but unlikely, given her much more limited screentime. Or perhaps she’s the sole acting beneficiary of her film — but so is Dunst, and there’s no contest in terms of the level of difficulty required, though honestly I don’t mean to diminish Balfe. God, give her a GOOD ROLE!!!)

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204485580

    Collette and DeBose as a late breakthrough. Hawkins and Hunter as a maybe if Spencer and Tragedy of Macbeth over-performs.

    I have zero confidence in Dowd, Houdyshell or Matlin, very little in Mara, Buckley/Johnson.

    Mmm I’m feeling the opposite to you regarding some of these. DeBose and Hawkins…I don’t see it even if they’re going all the way to BP :/ Hunter, I wanna see how this shakes out. Something about Houdyshell gives me…pause. If Richard Jenkins can happen… I dunno.

    If The Lost Daughter overperforms, which I do think is very possible, I feel like the Buckley/Johnson thing will likely be solved by critics, I can see them going for one more than another (maybe Buckley? Idk) — unlike Dowd/Plimpton who, frankly, I don’t see not because critics have something against Bleecker St (it’s AMPAS where it fails to register) but because……….I feel like they will be genuinely split as to who to reward, and fairly mystified as to how two leads should be evaluated in supporting.

    With Collette and Mara, again, I’m confused because Mara genuinely has a MUCH bigger role and as del Toro’s “moral compass”…I dunno, I can’t count that out.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Owl-Always-watching
    Joined:
    Dec 13th, 2017
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    #1204485584

    Frances does not top Nomadland. This coming from fan of hers

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    Vicki Leekx
    Joined:
    Aug 3rd, 2019
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    #1204485587

    I doubt McDormand is here but it doesn’t matter because I don’t think she’ll be winning regardless (unless she’s somehow found a way to top Nomadland, totally possible, and in which case — good god, woman, what is your SECRET!) But as for the others, I’m feeling like……..Negga is the biggest challenger of Dunst? A really good one, but I feel like I want Passing to be talked about more in BP before I say OK she’s def in a better place. This Balfe/Dench situation is hilarious. Either they kick out the biggest star of their film or they have an actual shot at winning (it’s slight though. Balfe would have to win based on sheer charisma, which is doable but unlikely, given her much more limited screentime. Or perhaps she’s the sole acting beneficiary of her film — but so is Dunst, and there’s no contest in terms of the level of difficulty required, though honestly I don’t mean to diminish Balfe. God, give her a GOOD ROLE!!!)

    As you may know I’ve read both books, seen neither film (I’m waiting for the proper Netflix experience)…and just can’t see Dunst beating Negga? Yes I think both are baity performances… but I just see Negga being slightly more baity (for reasons you probably understand) and what with Dunst never being nominated before like Seyfried last year for me this will be her welcome to the club nomination…I can’t see anyone beating Negga right now.

    FYC:

    Swinton, Weerasethakul Memoria, (Best Actress, Director)
    Efira, Rampling, Wilson Benedetta (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Rapace Lamb (Best Actress)
    Stewart, Hawkins, Spall Spencer (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204485593

    As you may know I’ve read both books, seen neither film (I’m waiting for the proper Netflix experience)…and just can’t see Dunst beating Negga? Yes I think both are baity performances… but I just see Negga being slightly more baity (for reasons you probably understand) and what with Dunst never being nominated before like Seyfried last year for me this will be her welcome to the club nomination…I can’t see anyone beating Negga right now.

    I agree re: the roles…….I think Rose is a pretty freaking amazing role, but ya Clare is…I mean, how can one even begin to describe what Clare is. They’re both very, very powerful roles, but yes I agree Clare >> Rose.

    But as of now, TPOTD is by far the stronger film and…no, I think being a first-time nominee for Dunst is her whole narrative so that can only help her lol. Negga needs to really cement her place. I think this is something of a fight (and WOWZA, it’s my luckyyyyyy year!) but I haven’t actually seen Negga myself yet. I assume she’s stratospheric, I have all my fingers and toes crossed for the film overall to do well, and hopefully for Thompson to get in too because…if Negga is as amazing as the reviews say, Thompson must be too. Bit of a wait-and-see, but yes I agree with you…theoretically.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204485595

    Negga would be a groundbreaking win (THIS character!). In a way no other nominee would. So…that’s MAJOR, yep.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Piper Halliwell
    Joined:
    Oct 20th, 2019
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    #1204485761

    I’m in minority but I don’t see Dunst as a front-runner at all. She’s the strongest bet for the overdue “welcome in the club” mention ala Rachel McAdams and Amanda Seyfried and that’s it. I just cannot imagine her winning.

    Negga, Ellis or Collette is my bet.

    FYC 2022 Emmys:

    Best Actress in a Drama Series: Sandra Oh in "Killing Eve"

    Best Actress in a Comedy Series: Sandra Oh in "The Chair"

    Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Kim Joo-ryoung in "Squid Game"

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    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204485778

    I prefer to see both TPOTD and “Passing” before saying which one is my favorite or before predicting the winner. I don’t think anybody is a frontrunner just yet. We just have more people’s reactions from TPOTD than other movies (Passing, Mass, King Richard, Nightmare Alley).

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    Posts:
    #1204485827

    I’m in minority but I don’t see Dunst as a front-runner at all. She’s the strongest bet for the overdue “welcome in the club” mention ala Rachel McAdams and Amanda Seyfried and that’s it. I just cannot imagine her winning.

    Negga, Ellis or Collette is my bet.

    But she’s nothing like McAdams or Seyfried. There wasn’t a super strong overdue-for-a-nom narrative for either of them, more of a happiness that two excellent actors got nominated, McAdams was just a happy surprise in fact. Dunst has been landing on the same lists as Emily Blunt in terms of “how has she never???” for like a decade, so that’s…not the same.

    Regardless, strange to see “just cannot imagine her winning” certitude but okay I guess. Ellis would be very welcome to the club nod too. Collette’s got a super strong narrative too, and for a win, so she makes sense in that regard, but the rest….eh, whatever. I don’t get it.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204485834

    I prefer to see both TPOTD and “Passing” before saying which one is my favorite or before predicting the winner. I don’t think anybody is a frontrunner just yet. We just have more people’s reactions from TPOTD than other movies (Passing, Mass, King Richard, Nightmare Alley).

    You’re right…I can see that, but actually Passing has a LOT of raves and I frankly think a lot more people should be penciling Negga in based on those because it’s not in the same boat as Mass — Netflix isn’t Bleecker St, at least 2 nominees here make total sense 🤔

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Piper Halliwell
    Joined:
    Oct 20th, 2019
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    Posts:
    #1204485849

    But she’s nothing like McAdams or Seyfried. There wasn’t a super strong overdue-for-a-nom narrative for either of them, more of a happiness that two excellent actors got nominated, McAdams was just a happy surprise in fact. Dunst has been landing on the same lists as Emily Blunt in terms of “how has she never???” for like a decade, so that’s…not the same. Regardless, strange to see “just cannot imagine her winning” certitude but okay I guess. Ellis would be very welcome to the club nod too. Collette’s got a super strong narrative too, and for a win, so she makes sense in that regard, but the rest….eh, whatever. I don’t get it.

    I mean both Seyfried and McAdams were hard-workers with plenty of great performances and they were ignored for decades. It’s the same with Dunst, except she had more serious roles/performances that were snubbed. I don’t think that any of the three have been actual Oscar contenders before (like you could make arguments for Seyfried in First Reformed and Dunst for Melancholia or Interview with the Vampire: The Vampire Chronicles) as much as Emily Blunt were, who’s work has been translated to many industry mentions.

    At the end of the day, Collette is obviously the most overdue in this category.

    FYC 2022 Emmys:

    Best Actress in a Drama Series: Sandra Oh in "Killing Eve"

    Best Actress in a Comedy Series: Sandra Oh in "The Chair"

    Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Kim Joo-ryoung in "Squid Game"

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204485859

    I mean both Seyfried and McAdams were hard-workers with plenty of great performances and they were ignored for decades. It’s the same with Dunst, except she had more serious roles/performances that were snubbed. I don’t think that any of the three have been actual Oscar contenders before (like you could make arguments for Seyfried in First Reformed and Dunst for Melancholia or Interview with the Vampire: The Vampire Chronicles) as much as Emily Blunt were, who’s work has been translated to many industry mentions.

    At the end of the day, Collette is obviously the most overdue in this category.

    I’ll grant you the last and just agree to disagree on the rest because lol no but I am def too tired. It makes no sense to put Seyfried in First Reformed next to Dunst in either of those 2 films I’m sorry — I don’t even remember a single critics group citing the former performance? It’s just ahistorical c’mon. ANYWAY. We disagree, okay great. 👍🏼

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    George Ehret
    Joined:
    Sep 3rd, 2019
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204485873

    Seyfried was a soft frontrunner when she got raves after Mank premiered and after the Hillbilly Elegy reviews dropped. Dunst is kind of a soft frontrunner right now, she just didn’t take the place of someone in a shitty movie and has an overdue narrative that Seyfried didn’t. I’d say they’re about even

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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