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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 4)

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    Barbra Please
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    #1204485927

    the most challenging, heartbreaking, and brave performance of the year. 

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    wolfali
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    #1204485933

    the most challenging, heartbreaking, and brave performance of the year.

    Poor Eliza Scanlen going from her incredibly deserving performances in Babyteeth and Sharp Objects to this -_- .

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    kaziz
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    #1204485966

    Seyfried was a soft frontrunner when she got raves after Mank premiered and after the Hillbilly Elegy reviews dropped. Dunst is kind of a soft frontrunner right now, she just didn’t take the place of someone in a shitty movie and has an overdue narrative that Seyfried didn’t. I’d say they’re about even

    I feel like “soft frontrunner” at least the way I understand how you’re using it is basically a euphemism for “this is not the actual frontrunner, just a default placeholder.”

    So I guess I’m back to: wellllllllll, maybe there’s something to this Dowd-mania? She’s gone almost unmentioned in these threads for a while now, but nobody dropped her. Not experts, not users. She only went up in nomination count and Dunst started racking up predicted wins like crazy after she was put here in the prediction center right before Venice. Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    wolfali
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    #1204486005

    Marlee Matlin is campaigning hard. I ultimately think CODA is too weak as a contender for her to make it in at the Oscars but I think she might showing up at some of the precursors.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204486137

    Marlee Matlin is campaigning hard. I ultimately think CODA is too weak as a contender for her to make it in at the Oscars but I think she might showing up at some of the precursors.

    I think Marlee Matlin is close to being a lock for CODA. I have seen the original French film (The Belier Family) and the role is a great one (Karin Viard was nominated for the French Cesar award in the Best Actress category – Louane Emera won a Cesar award for Most Promising Female Newcomer for her role as the daughter), Matlin is a former Oscar winner who has never been nominated since she won, and she is campaigning for the nomination. She could miss but I really don’t think she will.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204486139

    I’ll grant you the last and just agree to disagree on the rest because lol no but I am def too tired. It makes no sense to put Seyfried in First Reformed next to Dunst in either of those 2 films I’m sorry — I don’t even remember a single critics group citing the former performance? It’s just ahistorical c’mon. ANYWAY. We disagree, okay great. 👍🏼

    Lol what I meant that they are even in terms of no precursors love unlike Blunt. Dunst obviously had more serious stuff in her filmography, but yeah I do think they are the same with McAdams and Seyfried in terms of being around for a long time, doing great work, and having been noticed for the first time just recently. I’m not comparing their actual filmography, but their situation.

    FYC 2022 Emmys:

    Best Actress in a Drama Series: Sandra Oh in "Killing Eve"

    Best Actress in a Comedy Series: Sandra Oh in "The Chair"

    Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Kim Joo-ryoung in "Squid Game"

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    gorman
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    #1204486202

    I’m still awaiting category placement news and am going to have to see how big the campaign for Passing is, but at the minute I think Negga will take this category. She’s been shown love by the Academy before, and the role seems really challenging, meaty and bordering on a co-lead. Her buzz is also really strong from those who have seen and reviewed it already and just from the trailer it’s clear she could mount a strong campaign. I’m not sure the likes of Mass and CODA will be strong enough to compete or even get nominations if Netflix gives her the big push that I think she warrants. I think she’ll get critical love in their awards too. The issue with the Netflix factor is that Dunst may get more of the focus because TPOTD will likely be their biggest movie of the season, but I’m not sold on her buzz translating to an Oscar. My view probably changes if, say, Balfe, McDormand, Mara or Blanchett are pushed in Supporting.

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    syrus80
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    #1204486260

    Amy Adams was so solid, as always, in Dear Evan Hansen. I’d love for her to be “the surprise nominee.”

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    Crackleking
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    Jan 12th, 2017
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    #1204486262

    Amy Adams was so solid, as always, in Dear Evan Hansen. I’d love for her to be “the surprise nominee.”

    Hmmmmmmmm, I think we saw a different film cause Amy Adams was razzie worthy in Dear Evan Hansen.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204486315

    Amy Adams was so solid, as always, in Dear Evan Hansen. I’d love for her to be “the surprise nominee.”

    She was competent but not Oscar-worthy or nomination worthy. I was actually quite disappointed in the movie ): It felt flat to me in it’s direction, the opening up of the musical too realistically failed as far as I am concerned. Amy Adams was good but not great, the same for Julianne Moore. I wish they had just cast the Broadway performers and utilized a less realistic more theatrical approach to the material ):

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    Oscirus Jones
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    #1204486530

    Im still not seeing that overdue narrative with dunst. Maybe overdue to be nommed but def not overdue to win. Thats just a thing on this board.  Hell I dont even think we have any locks in this category yet much less favorites to win

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    kaziz
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    #1204486877

    Lol what I meant that they are even in terms of no precursors love unlike Blunt.

    Lol yeah ok I still take issue with that because you’re comparing Dunst to two people who had basically nothing in terms of any major awards noms or any critics groups and you’re separating all 3 from Blunt which is…weird. Interview with the Vampire was before SAG (they started the year after that film), and she got a GG nod for that and tons of critics awards which really did make it seem like she was getting an Oscar nod, the precursors weren’t the same. Melancholia, she cleaned up with critics awards, Cannes, AACTA, European Film Award and then missed all the precursors. Blunt has all them BAFTA nods, The Girl on the Train being a baffling one obviously: it was a clear AMPAS-isn’t-nominating-this nod and yeah she has more overall precursor nods mostly for Mary Poppins Returns, but Seyfried had basically nothing — no televised precursor nods or critics groups — before Mank. Dunst got more critics groups for The Cat’s Meow, a film so few people have heard of, than Seyfried did for First Reformed, a film most people have heard of. Prior to Spotlight, McAdams had no awards noms or critics groups at all either. Of course, I don’t want to crap on any of these amazing actresses but the fact is Blunt has the most precursors, and then Dunst had some too lol, but it’s really mostly Mary Poppins that’s making the difference. And Seyfried is…….completely different to that (mostly a lack of opportunity of course, she’s fab)! Mary Poppins is the only one Blunt really had on the possible road to Oscar. Other than that, Blunt has mostly exactly what Dunst has: a lot of notices from smaller groups for things like Sicario (ugh she deserved this one, but what she got was a CC nod for Actress in an Action Movie, not Best Actress) and Young Victoria and GG noms for things like Salmon Fishing in the Yemen at the GGs which was never in the conversation for Oscars but in terms of count, you may as well bring in that Dunst pivoted to TV and got GG, CC, Emmy attention for solely 2 seasons of work. So aside from Mary Poppins, Blunt was never on the road to Oscar either — which suuuuuucks, but it is what it is!

    My point: ofc Blunt has more nods in number but Dunst does not have none, they are comparable, she does indeed have nods everywhere (except BAFTA, they love Blunt lol) and that makes them far more comparable than Seyfried or McAdams (also, Blunt and Dunst getting a nod around now…they’ll be in their 40s, and they’ve been highly respected for a lot longer than the other 2, thus the better roles). To the best of my knowledge, Blunt doesn’t have that one performance that cleaned up with critics & shows up on Top 25 of this century lists & won Cannes Best Actress, like Dunst does (Melancholia). Maybe the closest is Sicario? Lol either way this just doesn’t stand up.

    I get that you were saying this to build up to Collette being FAR AND AWAY more decorated, also she’s a prior nominee so that’s a whole other thing, no argument. But there’s no need to argue Dunst had the zero things Seyfried and McAdams had before their noms? I’m sorry, she has a lot. The other two really didn’t have anything before Mank and Spotlight, not televised precursors nor critics groups! I mean, c’mon! Why? Why erase history like this

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204486901

    I’m still awaiting category placement news and am going to have to see how big the campaign for Passing is, but at the minute I think Negga will take this category. She’s been shown love by the Academy before, and the role seems really challenging, meaty and bordering on a co-lead. Her buzz is also really strong from those who have seen and reviewed it already and just from the trailer it’s clear she could mount a strong campaign. I’m not sure the likes of Mass and CODA will be strong enough to compete or even get nominations if Netflix gives her the big push that I think she warrants. I think she’ll get critical love in their awards too. The issue with the Netflix factor is that Dunst may get more of the focus because TPOTD will likely be their biggest movie of the season, but I’m not sold on her buzz translating to an Oscar. My view probably changes if, say, Balfe, McDormand, Mara or Blanchett are pushed in Supporting.

    I agree that Negga can take this and as of now I’m inclined to agree that she will. But if that doesn’t happen, there’s no reason Dunst cannot win. The naysaying alone makes her different to Seyfried in Mank. At this point, very few people were saying she cannot win. And the more time passes, the more I genuinely do believe it’s not just buzz, it would be a deserving win.

    But Negga will mostly likely turn that upside down lol, I know she will. And despite being a prior nominee, I think it’ll be just on the strength of the performance, no Dunst or Dowd-like narrative. There’s no real reason to think AMPAS is clamoring to reward her. Her performance will do the whole thing hopefully, so narrative-talk here means basically nothing.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204486977

    Damn, that’s close. Dunst won.

    Who’s going to Win Best Supporting Actress (2022) (September, Final Round) 599 votes

    Caitriona Balfe – Belfast (36%)

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (6%)

    Ann Dowd – Mass (20%)

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (38%)

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
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    #1204487444

    Kaziz I’m sorry but a lot of that Blunt stuff was wrong. Dunst is more comparable to her than she is to McAdams and Seyfried, but she still shouldn’t be compared to her at all (at least in terms of precursors).

    Blunt is the ONLY actor to receive multiple nominations from each major precursor without getting an Oscar nom (the same position ScarJo was in before her dual nominations). Ofc, SFitY was never gonna be an Oscar vehicle. But she probably came awfully close to a nomination for a handful of other movies. She was sixth in our predix center for both AQP and MPR, she was also probably sixth for TDWP, probably sixth or seventh for TYV, and at least in the top ten for TGotT. The only two times Dunst has ever been close were for IwaV and Melancholia. And for the latter she only got Critics Noms and wins…

    Not to discount Dunst at all, but to say that MPR was the only time Blunt has come close is… just plain wrong. She quite literally has come close without getting it more than any other actor.

    Oscars FYC:

    Visual Effects: Free Guy

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