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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 4)

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    kaziz
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    #1204487504

    I honestly don’t understand your acronyms tbh, but everything I said was literally based off the accolades listed on Wikipedia and IMDb pages. Okay yeah agreed — only actor with every precursor without a nod. True. I did accept that already lol.

    I’m sorry, I don’t have anything to respond to “she was probably 6th or 7th…” arguments with lol, they never make sense to me. (The only one I could figure out was The Young Victoria and omg cmon, let’s start talking The Beguiled, Little Women, and The Virgin Suicides in that case).

    Regardless, yeah I think they’re plenty comparable because PLENTY of well-respected people who have been considered due for Oscar love never came close to any precursors at all! I didn’t bring that up but when we’ve seen people like Allison Janney, Regina King etc come up, it’s not just that they were super respected in TV, but also made enough films and were never recognized for it. These are often older actors. If it was McAdams for her first nod today — yes, I’d agree. After Spotlight, Disobedience, True Detective, all that — yep, I’d agree.

    The acronyms are giving me a headache though lol, I don’t get which films youre referring to 😂 I worked out A Quiet Place, I dunno if a GD ranking should be factored in. Technically Dunst ranked pretty high for The Beguiled (7 or something), Melancholia (somewhere in the 8 or 9, and in any case, that year the last spot was gonna go to someone with comparable critics things, like Mara, because there were so many great performances).

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Edgar Pereira
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    Jun 29th, 2011
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    #1204487519

    I re-watched IN THE HEIGHTS… The thing is: I really want Olga Merediz to happen, but what do you think?
    I believe I love the movie too much to have a down-to-earth view of Merediz’s Best Supporting Actress chances

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    kaziz
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    #1204487523

    Not to discount Dunst at all, but to say that MPR was the only time Blunt has come close is… just plain wrong. She quite literally has come close without getting it more than any other actor.

    That’s not what I said though. I basically said if you look at the whole precursor run, Mary Poppins makes the biggest difference in nomination count between the two and was the strongest trajectory. Frankly we can only guess at how many times they’ve come “close” because both have so many films that won critics prizes and had passion and sometimes that’s all one needs to leap into that final spot. Yes, it IS bizarre that Blunt had it all go perfectly and didn’t get it. But broadly, it’s bizarre looking at both careers. I love them both why are you doing this to me 😭😭😭

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
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    #1204487525

    I re-watched IN THE HEIGHTS… The thing is: I really want Olga Merediz to happen, but what do you think?
    I believe I love the movie too much to have a down-to-earth view of Merediz’s Best Supporting Actress chances

    I hope I’m an okay person to say this because I liked the film but she was lovely and also too small 🙁 I don’t think she made THAT much of an impact on me, I liked Anthony Ramos most, but what I saw I really liked in a “oh she’s lovely” kinda way maybe not…..in a “omg she’s going on my ballot” kinda way 🤷🏽‍♂️

    Anne Thompson still has her winning tho?

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204487528

    I can’t help but think Dunst acting opposite of Cumberbatch’s powerhouse performance will be enough for her to win. Not only that but she has so much bait in the film that’s enough to woo voters over. I have a strong feeling the international bloc will rally behind her performance similar to how they rallied behind her Cannes Best Actress win for Melancholia. I’m not entirely confident in her chances of winning, but as it stands I am predicting her unless more fierce contenders come along.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kaziz
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    #1204487541

    I can’t help but think Dunst acting opposite of Cumberbatch’s powerhouse performance will be enough for her to win. Not only that but she has so much bait in the film that’s enough to woo voters over. I have a strong feeling the international bloc will rally behind her performance similar to how they rallied behind her Cannes Best Actress win for Melancholia. I’m not entirely confident in her chances of winning, but as it stands I am predicting her unless more fierce contenders come along.

    You’ll appreciate this lol. It has nothing to do with winning etc BUT.

    I often do this with Dunst & Williams, I dunno why…ever since Dick I’ve see them as somewhat similar (ofc they both have their own strengths and stuff, but they’re as similar as any 2 actors can be I think? They both have that range. I dunno, maybe it’s just bc I stan them both). I was wondering what Dunst’s last monologue to Peter would’ve been if Williams had delivered it lol. And then I went back to Williams’ famous Manchester by the Sea scene. The latter was SO VISCERAL because it was all real, direct things a former grieving partner might say, so it’s very different to the highly metaphorical monologue Dunst delivers.

    But I couldn’t shake the feeling that there was a moment that Williams would’ve nailed too, and Dunst does. It’s a really perfect monologue, once it’s on YouTube I imagine people will dissect it (WHY didn’t Williams win that year again???? Oh bc of Viola Davis fraud. Ughhhhhhh). Incidentally, she was the frontrunner from Sundance until Viola displaced her permanently. And that too based on such a small performance.

    I dunno. Dunst has the materials for a win but we’re understandably waiting for a Davis-in-Fences level performance. Dowd and Negga have that……I think? But for a supporting performance, it’s a perfectly pitched and delivered monologue, packed with details to unfold that show you just how key the character is (and she has two full scenes after that that are pretty great). As just one scene, it’s better than the earth is evil scene in isolation. So Dowd was the Sundance frontrunner this year but Mass is no Manchester by the Sea, so why didn’t Negga assume frontrunner position? I’m so confusedddddd

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
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    #1204487545

    Apparently Dowd does have THAT kind of monologue, the earth-shattering kind. Critics may flock to that, but again there’s the Plimpton problem. Maybe we’ve been too quick to dismiss her?

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
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    Apr 20th, 2019
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    #1204487598

    FYI Kaziz the acronyms were for the following: The Devil Wears Prada, The Young Victoria, The Girl on the Train, Mary Poppins Returns, and A Quiet Place.

    Oscars FYC:

    Dune in Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Sound, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Costume Design, Film Editing, and Visual Effects

    Free Guy in Visual Effects

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    Hawk
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    #1204487661

    Apparently Dowd is campaigning pretty hard. It’s making me wonder if I’m underestimating her chances.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    Feb 19th, 2012
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    #1204487663

    Apparently Dowd does have THAT kind of monologue, the earth-shattering kind. Critics may flock to that, but again there’s the Plimpton problem. Maybe we’ve been too quick to dismiss her?

    She is first in the predictions center and she is actually a LEAD, both of which will help her. But… I think there will be passion for other actresses when the final voting occurs.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204487665

    I re-watched IN THE HEIGHTS… The thing is: I really want Olga Merediz to happen, but what do you think?
    I believe I love the movie too much to have a down-to-earth view of Merediz’s Best Supporting Actress chances

    I have pretty much given up hope ): So far she is by far my choice for the Oscar of all the performances I have seen but of course I haven’t seen the others yet. I would love for her to get a nomination, she is AMAZING and phenomenal! The movie was wonderful too. It opened too early ):

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    kaziz
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    #1204487667

    FYI Kaziz the acronyms were for the following: The Devil Wears Prada, The Young Victoria, The Girl on the Train, Mary Poppins Returns, and A Quiet Place.

    Thanks :)))

    At this point I’m just thinking about Blunt and not Dunst at all because it’s so sad she hasn’t gotten a nom :(((( I think it’s a weird trifecta: she’s never had a run from both critics and televised precursors for the same film, they’re all broken up between different films, and none of them were BP contenders 🙁

    She got 1 or 2 critics mentions for Devil Wears Prada, so the BAFTA and GG nods happened a bit unexpectedly & then she missed CC & SAG. With Young Victoria she had a few more critics groups & popped up for CC. But she wasn’t in the top 10 on GD for either of them actually (GD was smaller then lol).

    I think Sicario would’ve been a LOT of sense: lots of critics cited it but it went nowhere with the precursors. Dunst has had a lot more of these Sicario-like situations. A Quiet Place is also interesting: she got critics and then only SAG. BAFTA didn’t recognize her but then A Girl on the Train happened. That, honestly, was also unexpected — she was high in GD odds until the film came out to fairly bad reviews (48 MC) so it was totally surprising when she showed up there. I remember how surprising that was bc there had been zeeero critics attention. The weird thing that perhaps explains her (terrible) continued snubs is that she popped up in completely different precursors for a variety of different films, and critics groups didn’t pave the way for her best shots, so only Mary Poppins gave her some semblance of the whole trajectory, and even BAFTA snubbed her there.

    I don’t think it’s the precursors here that made the difference – the critics groups didn’t cite her enough until Sicario. That was such a brilliant performance, it would’ve made so much sense if THAT had gone to the precursors instead of Girl on the Train — it would’ve locked her in. She’s just been flat out unlucky tbh, and in a way has had the same problem as Dunst and most actors: no BP films :/

    But to address what you said about her being next in line for many films…no I dont think so? Aside from Mary Poppins, she was actually highest out of all the other films in GD odds for Sicario, but that was based on critics groups & then she got no precursors. She faded 🙁

    So okay: that’s 5 films with wildly different trajectories and at least 1 precursor each except for Sicario, but only 1 was a very good shot I think, and Sicario is one film you didn’t mention that I think she was VERY much in the conversation for all year long. Her one great shot is similar to Interview with the Vampire. Dunst is sort of a weird inverse to Blunt: she got critics groups’ awards for Little Women, Melancholia, The Cat’s Meow, Marie Antoinette that didn’t translate into any precursors. It may surprise you to know she was in the top 10 consistently for Melancholia, The Beguiled and Midnight Special in this decade. Either way — McAdams and Seyfried had neither Blunt nor Dunst’s career. Ya ofc Blunt has a far better record with precursors, but the overdue narrative doesn’t take a simple number of precursors into account: Dowd e.g. is seen as overdue based off of one film, King, Janney, Metcalf for one or two films — but all mostly for their TV work so I guess it helps Dunst is coming off two TV shows and 3 decades of films. I just feel……they’re the only ones, there’s no other highly respected actresses of their generation who have a comparably long record with critics or precursors and haven’t gotten nominated yet (ScarJo got hers).

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204487673

    Apparently Dowd is campaigning pretty hard. It’s making me wonder if I’m underestimating her chances. https://twitter.com/mavericksmovies/status/1442286415480385536?s=21

     

    Spirit Awards seem likely to be the ceiling for Mass, where she and Plimpton will split the vote as dual supporting nominees. Can’t imagine any critics’ awards honoring either of them individually – unless they go their own way and consider one a leading performance.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    FreemanGriffin
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2012
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    #1204487681

    Spirit Awards seem likely to be the ceiling for Mass, where she and Plimpton will split the vote as dual supporting nominees. Can’t imagine any critics’ awards honoring either of them individually – unless they go their own way and consider one a leading performance.

    I think they are more likely to be nominated for Female Lead at the Indie spirits. Mass is basically a four person movie and the two women are the leads. Dowd will definitely be nominated imo for the Supporting Actress Oscar. I think she is almost certainly a lock.

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204487689

    Spirit Awards seem likely to be the ceiling for Mass, where she and Plimpton will split the vote as dual supporting nominees. Can’t imagine any critics’ awards honoring either of them individually – unless they go their own way and consider one a leading performance.

    Yeah I don’t know how the critics groups will solve this problem. Dowd def needs the critics groups bc otherwise Indie Spirits is the cap and even then…..they’ll probably nominate both in lead. I really don’t know how this will go but if Dowd somehow does get singled out then I think she can ride it to a win but…..how lol

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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