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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 4)

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204475362

    NO. (Said with love hehe) I don’t know if Buckley and Johnson are canceling each other out. I agree that both have raves and any given review leans to one more than the other, but it also feels people are just naturally gravitating towards Buckley (narrative, I guess? But Johnson has one too!) I do take the higher odds for Buckley as indicative of the general goodwill since most of those votes are probably not people who’ve seen the film. Plus I think The Lost Daughter will be in for BP.

    Sorry which part are you disagreeing with? I have TLD in Picture as well and it would make sense for Johnson or Bukcley to get in but it is quite difficult to figure out if either of them will replace Negga or McDormand currently.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204475995

    Sorry which part are you disagreeing with? I have TLD in Picture as well and it would make sense for Johnson or Bukcley to get in but it is quite difficult to figure out if either of them will replace Negga or McDormand currently.

    Hahah I bolded the Negga is most vulnerable part. Mostly just saying it because I stan her and you understand, but also I think she’ll be fine, those raves are WOWZA. I think I need to see the trailer for McDormand, I feel like name checking her doesn’t make as much sense as it does for Denzel?

    Also, my post-Telluride sense that Ellis was a lock has kinda sorta faded and I want to see how the film campaign goes because it’s not a critics choice, and no one expected her like they expected Dunst so she’s more vulnerable to me than Negga frankly just bc we KNOW Passing is playing all the fests from now on :/ AFI is a bit late for a KR resurgence and Dunst/Negga/Buckley/Johnson are the obvious critics choices

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Anirudh Arun
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    Sep 28th, 2019
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    #1204476188

    I just saw Dear Evan Hansen. The movie is ….umm……I don’t know, kind of weird. The RT/ Metacritic score is really accurate. But I am ready to crown Julianne Moore as one of the greatest actresses of all time. She has some four scenes but is so mesmerizing and believable, even when the script is sub-par. She REALLY impressed me. Dever and Adams are also excellent. The three of them do some real heavy lifting to save the movie from going down the drain. I hope Julianne gets some sort of award attention even though I know it is wishful thinking.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204476497

    The big question for me here is: will Blanchett go supporting? I feel it can be a strong year for Best Actress, but BSActress feels wide open besides Dunst who’s a clear frontrunner.

    Unless Del Toro completely changed the story in this movie version Cate Blanchett will belong in the supporting category; her character doesn’t show up until half way through both the novel and the 1947 film. I think the billing is alphabetical after Bradley Cooper’s name. The trailer is gorgeous to look at and definitely does it’s job of making me want to see the movie.

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    veronikavoss
    Joined:
    Jul 28th, 2011
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    #1204476571

    Hahah I bolded the Negga is most vulnerable part. Mostly just saying it because I stan her and you understand, but also I think she’ll be fine, those raves are WOWZA. I think I need to see the trailer for McDormand, I feel like name checking her doesn’t make as much sense as it does for Denzel?

    Also, my post-Telluride sense that Ellis was a lock has kinda sorta faded and I want to see how the film campaign goes because it’s not a critics choice, and no one expected her like they expected Dunst so she’s more vulnerable to me than Negga frankly just bc we KNOW Passing is playing all the fests from now on :/ AFI is a bit late for a KR resurgence and Dunst/Negga/Buckley/Johnson are the obvious critics choices

    I think Ellis is more safe than Negga, at least, with the stronger film (at least campaign-wise, for voters) and more of a reputation as a character actress whose paid her dues. I’m rooting for Negga but a lot of my predicting her is rooted in some wishful thinking.

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    methaddiction
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    Aug 1st, 2017
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    #1204476576

    Ann Dowd is going to get robbed 

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204477115

    I think Ellis is more safe than Negga, at least, with the stronger film (at least campaign-wise, for voters) and more of a reputation as a character actress whose paid her dues. I’m rooting for Negga but a lot of my predicting her is rooted in some wishful thinking.

    I dunno, I don’t really think it’s wishful thinking at all tbh. Worst case scenario Negga is the sole nominee of her film :/ I mean she came out REALLY strong out of the gate at Sundance, experts are predicting her but users aren’t. I don’t quite understand that because Negga is what Dowd could be if she didn’t have internal competition from Plimpton. I mean the reviews for Negga — WOAH. She’s gonna win a bunch of critics awards I don’t really think it’s wishful thinking.

    Wishful thinking is Marlee Matlin lol. I also don’t think Dowd is wishful thinking, BUT I do think “but why over Plimpton??” which is something I’m guessing is something everyone will ve thinking. Without that, she would’ve been fine (for a nod) imo, Bleecker St or no 🤷🏽‍♂️

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204477125

    Passing could be the Can You Ever Forgive Me of the year. Too small scale for Best Picture, but Actress, Supporting Actress and Adapted seems very likely.

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    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
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    Apr 20th, 2019
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    #1204477195

    Passing could be the Can You Ever Forgive Me of the year. Too small scale for Best Picture, but Actress, Supporting Actress and Adapted seems very likely.

    Oooooo. I love this take. I’ve been very very skeptical of Passing thus far but ig i could definitely see this. Although instead of Actress I’d think a technical nomination instead a la IBSCT.

    Oscars FYC:
    Picture: Dune, The Power of the Dog
    Director: Jane Campion, Denis Villeneuve
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons
    Adapted Screenplay: Dune, Passing, The Power of the Dog
    Cinematography: Dune, The Power of the Dog
    Costume Design: Dune
    Film Editing: Dune, The Power of the Dog
    Production Design: Dune, The Power of the Dog
    Sound: Dune, The Power of the Dog
    Visual Effects: Dune, Free Guy

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    alittle03
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2020
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    #1204477208

    Ruth Negga is coming, I’m fearing.

    FYC -
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
    Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
    O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
    A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
    Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204477216

    Passing could be the Can You Ever Forgive Me of the year. Too small scale for Best Picture, but Actress, Supporting Actress and Adapted seems very likely.

    It could also NOT be like Can You Ever Forgive Me and be more like Sound of Metal because it’s a devastating and incredibly moving and intelligent story 🙂

    In a way the story has all the advantages TPOTD and The Lost Daughter does but with the advantage?/disadvantage? that it’s about something people (all people…white people included) don’t think or talk about much. It IS fascinating. Sound of Metal’s premise was a drummer-losing-hearing. Regardless, yes Negga looks pretty likely.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204477227

    Glad I grabbed Negga at 100/1 odds. 😊

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    lorelei lor
    Joined:
    Dec 20th, 2017
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    #1204477259

    Ann Dowd is going to get robbed

    Darling, no one knows that movie exists. I doubt she’s getting nominated.

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    methaddiction
    Joined:
    Aug 1st, 2017
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    #1204477291

    Darling, no one knows that movie exists. I doubt she’s getting nominated.

    That’s what I mean hun they should’ve done a better job campaigning.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204477295

    Glad I grabbed Negga at 100/1 odds. 😊

    So bizarre that Dowd immediately went to #1 when the center opened and the two OTHER people who got full out raaaaaaaves from Sundance didn’t: Plimpton from the same film & Negga from Passing. Just……..makes no sense.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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