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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 4)

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    wolfali
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    #1204513821

    The Power of the Dog is more auteur driven and thus appeals to British sensibilities more than Belfast like when the BAFTA body chose The Father and Three Billboards for Best British Film. Cumberbatch looks stronger than ever to win at BAFTA and Campion is likely to do extremely well there as well.

    Promising Young Woman actually won the British film BAFTA over The Father last year but it proves your point further. The membership doesn’t vote for films based on where they’re set. They vote for which films have more British sensibilities or they simply defer to the strongest Best Picture contender.

    Kenneth Branagh (who only has three BAFTA film nominations compared to five Oscar nominations) being from Belfast doesn’t change the fact that Benedict Cumberbatch and Jane Campion are both incredibly respected within the British film industry (Campion even turned up with a sole director nomination on the television side for Top of the Lake : China Girl which was otherwise an awards flop) or that The Power of the Dog appeals to the membership’s sensibilities more as a film. There are already some criticisms of Belfast being a very Americanised and sanitised depiction of the events leading to the troubles.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Babygirl
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    Sep 12th, 2018
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    #1204513826

    Just saw the news, congrats to Caitriona Balfe on her well deserved Oscar.

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    diego
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    Dec 10th, 2019
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    #1204513830

    I think that Ruth Negga is more likely to be nominated than Marlee Matlin.

    This should be common knowledge. Marlee Matlin won’t even be in the top 30 once nomination voting comes.

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    kaziz
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    #1204513835

    Seen that they all go supporting, do you think that both Dench and Balfe are going to get nominated? At the expenses of whom? Who do you think is being left out of the 4 in “Belfast”? I’m only sure about Balfe right now and I wish I had seen the movie to know more about the rest.

    I REALLY don’t see both getting in, Balfe should be very safe though. I do NOT see this as a winning performance in any category, just a nod-worthy one. It’s WAY too traditional a role. It’s full of Old Hollywood charm, Balfe is…….far more the Seyfried contender than anyone, but obviously no comparison is perfect. I’d say maybe it is kinda similar to Marina de Tavira as well, maybe the closest “type” to her is Patricia Arquette in Boyhood but Arquette wasn’t relying on charm so much as off-the-wall authenticity and a LOT of screen time (technically a lead!) She won because you related to her—Balfe is truly wonderful, but…

    Maybe the closest analog is…. Jennifer Connelly for A Beautiful Mind? Personally I think she was more respected by the Academy given that she this was the year after her Requiem for a Dream performance, and she had been in Pollock and Labyrinth and was more of a film actor, so she was kind of…hot at the time! AMPAS has changed since then, I’m not sure she would win over the other nominees in that category and more out-of-the-box contenders. Dunst, Negga, Buckley, Johnson, Dowd, Plimpton, Collette, Mara, Streep all seem to have roles that I can see AMPAS handing a win to in a hypothetical other year.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Rachel615
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    Sep 20th, 2018
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    #1204513844

    Promising Young Woman actually won the British film BAFTA over Belfast last year but it proves your point further. The membership doesn’t vote for films based on where they’re set. They vote for which films have more British sensibilities or they simply defer to the strongest Best Picture contender.

    Do you mean over The Father? And do you think that Promising Young Woman had “more British sensibilities” than American sensibilities? I know it was written by a Brit but I think of it as having equally American sensibilities.

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    kaziz
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    #1204513857

    Idea that Balfe is now gonna sweep LOL 💀

    Y’all do know no Belfast actor will be a critic’s choice right? (Maybe Hinds, but they don’t much like the film) And critics groups are next, no need to get down on Negga, Buckley, Johnson just yet because along with Dunst, they’re the most likely to be cited by critics groups.

    Johnson is campaigning a lot more! Listen, I think they’re both fantastic, and I expected to prefer Buckley but I…didn’t. Also, I REALLY feel like people are just skipping over the passion for Dunst’s performance…like, it’s right here lol 😂, and I assure you re-watch the film, you’ll understand it a LOT more (like with any film, but TPOTD is particularly onion-like).

    FWIW: I haven’t seen Mass but from every review I can kinda tell Dowd & Plimpton are at the top of their game, present throughout the film, and I would prefer them to Dunst as winners. Unfortunately, it just doesn’t look like that’s happening, Dunst is campaigning like a boss lol

    kd

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Diogo Duarte
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    Nov 1st, 2019
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    #1204513867

    The Power of the Dog says hi.

    I know. I just think Belfast is the typical british film, like The Father.

    There will probably be love for everyone there. Benedict, Balfe, Campion and both films winning Screenplay.

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    wolfali
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    #1204513869

    Do you mean over The Father? And do you think that Promising Young Woman had “more British sensibilities” than American sensibilities? I know it was written by a Brit but I think of it as having equally American sensibilities.

    I do mean over The Father! Sorry. The comparisons between those two and Three Billboards/Darkest Hour led to a nasty word misplacement!

    I think what really helped Promising Young Woman to win British film at BAFTA (and do well there) is that whilst it is an American set film, the type of humour in its writing was a very dark one that has been a staple of British dramedy films for a while.

    A bit like how whilst Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is American set and American focused, Maria Bakalova’s performance managed to find appeal with the London Film Critics Circle and the BAFTA jury (although not with the BAFTA membership considering she wasn’t strong enough to win over Yuh Jung-Youn) because its pedigree (just like the character of Borat) originated from British television satires from the 2000s/early 2010s.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Babygirl
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    #1204513875

    Belfast doesn’t need critics whatsoever, we already know it’s the type of film they won’t go for. I have seen both Belfast and POTD and Balfe is way more Oscar friendly than Dunst and well…. better. A lot of you are just in denial that Balfe can win cause you stan Dunst lol.

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    wolfali
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    #1204513877

    I just think Belfast is the typical british film, like The Father.

    That still lost the British film of the year to <i>Promising Young Woman </i>so your comparison is flawed.

    Anyway reviews from the London film critics (who didn’t review the film at TIFF or Telluride) of Belfast will be out tomorrow as the film is screening at LFF so it will be interesting to see what the response is.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Diogo Duarte
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    Nov 1st, 2019
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    #1204513883

    Idea that Balfe is now gonna sweep LOL 💀 Y’all do know no Belfast actor will be a critic’s choice right? (Maybe Hinds, but they don’t much like the film) And critics groups are next, no need to get down on Negga, Buckley, Johnson just yet because along with Dunst, they’re the most likely to be cited by critics groups. Johnson is campaigning a lot more! Listen, I think they’re both fantastic, and I expected to prefer Buckley but I…didn’t. Also, I REALLY feel like people are just skipping over the passion for Dunst’s performance…like, it’s right here lol 😂, and I assure you re-watch the film, you’ll understand it a LOT more (like with any film, but TPOTD is particularly onion-like). FWIW: I haven’t seen Mass but from every review I can kinda tell Dowd & Plimpton are at the top of their game, present throughout the film, and I would prefer them to Dunst as winners. Unfortunately, it just doesn’t look like that’s happening, Dunst is campaigning like a boss lol kd

    Mahershala Ali wasn’t a critic’s favorite and won an Oscar, in front of a critics favorite/british veteran with a incredible performance/movie. She has the right movie to get through these problems.

    And the delusional idea that critics from smaller groups go only with “artistic things”. Even films like Danish Girl, Les Miserables, The Help have a lot of wins. Some groups are super basic.

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    wolfali
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    #1204513885

    Neither Dunst nor Balfe are locked to sweep when it’s only October.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
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    Apr 20th, 2019
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    #1204513887

    Patricia Arquette in Boyhood but Arquette wasn’t relying on charm so much as off-the-wall authenticity and a LOT of screen time (technically a lead!)

    And I thought we shared the same views on category fraud… 😥

    I just dont understand the argument for her being lead. She doesnt have POV and shes in only 20% of Boyhood.

    Oscars FYC:
    Belfast (Pic, Balfe, Dornan, Hinds, Screenplay)
    CODA (Kotsur, Screenplay)
    Dune (Pic, Villeneuve, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, VFX)
    Free Guy (VFX)
    Passing (Negga)
    The Power of the Dog (Pic, Campion, Cumberbatch, Dunst, Smit-McPhee, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing)
    tick, tick, Boom! (Garfield)
    West Side Story (Pic, Spielberg, Zegler, DeBose, Moreno, Faist, Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume, Editing, Production Design, Sound)

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    Ashley Hernandez
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    Aug 21st, 2017
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    #1204513891

    I forgot that since Green Book won Supporting Actor that means Belfast will Supporting Actress because every film follows a formerly preordained film’s exactly and the 2 are exactly the same

    Balfe is too good for Belfast but gonna have to try harder to convince people of her winning over Dunst rather than simply saying it’s Oscar friendly as if any of the previous winners fit some silly 1990s mold of Oscar friendly

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204513896

    And I thought we shared the same views on category fraud… 😥

    I just dont understand the argument for her being lead. She doesnt have POV and shes in only 20% of Boyhood.

    LOL JACOB this is actually HILARIOUS because I said that misremembering where you stood on whether she was lead or supporting. I thought you had said she was lead and so I was convinced (in my….faulty memory)…… and so I wrote that she was, but it’s been so long since I’ve seen it, but I thought I was deferring to you hahahahahahaahah. Yeah no you’re right, if that’s the case, then yeah she wasn’t lead.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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