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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 4)

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204513899

    Belfast doesn’t need critics whatsoever, we already know it’s the type of film they won’t go for. I have seen both Belfast and POTD and Balfe is way more Oscar friendly than Dunst and well…. better. A lot of you are just in denial that Balfe can win cause you stan Dunst lol.

    Mahershala Ali wasn’t a critic’s favorite and won an Oscar, in front of a critics favorite/british veteran with a incredible performance/movie. She has the right movie to get through these problems.

    And the delusional idea that critics from smaller groups go only with “artistic things”. Even films like Danish Girl, Les Miserables, The Help have a lot of wins. Some groups are super basic.

    I forgot that since Green Book won Supporting Actor that means Belfast will Supporting Actress because every film follows a formerly preordained film’s exactly and the 2 are exactly the same

    Balfe is too good for Belfast but gonna have to try harder to convince people of her winning over Dunst rather than simply saying it’s Oscar friendly as if any of the previous winners fit some silly 1990s mold of Oscar friendly

    imo ANY argument saying someone’s going to win IN OCTOBER is stupid, so heavily disagree with all of that. But I do agree that it is ludicrous to think critics “don’t matter”, and yes that notion of Oscar friendly is very antiquated I’m sorry. Using such traditional notions of Oscar friendly, Ellis or actually DENCH would win. But in all likelihood they won’t, so stanning Balfe is the same as stanning Dunst, it’s ALL……..stanning lol

    Also Mahershala Ali was winning his 2nd Oscar. I don’t know how that happened exactly but he is no analog to Balfe who has never been nominated and is new to a lot of people. If you went by his first win, which you conveniently didn’t, that would favor Dunst lol. But again, it’s just OCTOBER!

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
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    #1204513906

    Neither Dunst nor Balfe are locked to sweep when it’s only October.

    100%. Also, this whole SWEEP business is so silly LOL. If either of them win, I don’t see a full sweep in the cards imo because most years most categories the winner does not sweep, unless they’re Daniel Day Lewis… Almost nobody sweeps! Laura Dern in Marriage Story was the exception, not even Regina King SWEPT.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204513912

    I forgot that since Green Book won Supporting Actor that means Belfast will Supporting Actress because every film follows a formerly preordained film’s exactly and the 2 are exactly the same

    Wasn’t Once Upon a Time in Hollywood suppose to win Picture, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay like Green Book?

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    Diogo Duarte
    Joined:
    Nov 1st, 2019
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    #1204513914

    That still lost the British film of the year to <i>Promising Young Woman </i>so your comparison is flawed. Anyway reviews from the London film critics (who didn’t review the film at TIFF or Telluride) of Belfast will be out tomorrow as the film is screening at LFF so it will be interesting to see what the response is.

    I’m not talking about the Best British Film category. Even losing the British Film, The Father won awards and had a lot of support there. That’s what I’m saying and Power of the Dog / Belfast seem to be front runners in different acting categories. They can give Actor to TPOTD and Supp Actress to Belfast and everything will be ok.

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    diego
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    #1204513916

    Idea that Balfe is now gonna sweep LOL 💀 Y’all do know no Belfast actor will be a critic’s choice right? (Maybe Hinds, but they don’t much like the film) And critics groups are next, no need to get down on Negga, Buckley, Johnson just yet because along with Dunst, they’re the most likely to be cited by critics groups. Johnson is campaigning a lot more! Listen, I think they’re both fantastic, and I expected to prefer Buckley but I…didn’t. Also, I REALLY feel like people are just skipping over the passion for Dunst’s performance…like, it’s right here lol 😂, and I assure you re-watch the film, you’ll understand it a LOT more (like with any film, but TPOTD is particularly onion-like). FWIW: I haven’t seen Mass but from every review I can kinda tell Dowd & Plimpton are at the top of their game, present throughout the film, and I would prefer them to Dunst as winners. Unfortunately, it just doesn’t look like that’s happening, Dunst is campaigning like a boss lol  

    This is very nice but haven’t we learned over and over again that critics don’t mean anything in the end?

    So many so-called critic favorites have lost and will continue to do so in the future. At this point, you can’t even claim who is going to be the critics’ push.

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    diego
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    #1204513918

    Wasn’t Once Upon a Time in Hollywood suppose to win Picture, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay like Green Book?

    It should have

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204513920

    It should have

    Over Parasite? Wrong answer.

     

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    diego
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    Dec 10th, 2019
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    #1204513922

    Over Parasite?

    Yes!

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    Babygirl
    Joined:
    Sep 12th, 2018
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    #1204513941

    I forgot that since Green Book won Supporting Actor that means Belfast will Supporting Actress because every film follows a formerly preordained film’s exactly and the 2 are exactly the same Balfe is too good for Belfast but gonna have to try harder to convince people of her winning over Dunst rather than simply saying it’s Oscar friendly as if any of the previous winners fit some silly 1990s mold of Oscar friendly

    I did not say she’s winning solely because her film will be strong, don’t put shit in my mouth to fit your narrative.

    What I obviously meant by “Oscar friendly”  is her big moments are BIG and fit in the zone voters usually like to award. (even in 2010s, not that shit 90s drag you thought you ate with) Dunst is just simply not the type of performance they award against someone who quite literally throws plates around and has a ton more to do.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
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    #1204513945

    This is very nice but haven’t we learned over and over again that critics don’t mean anything in the end?

    So many so-called critic favorites have lost and will continue to do so in the future. At this point, you can’t even claim who is going to be the critics’ push.

    Mmmm, no absolutely not, “critics favorites” usually win actually. If you’re referring to nominations, yes—some people like JLo who was 2nd in terms of critics groups wins didn’t get in. Of course, Hustlers was only ever thought to be a JLo play, so it’s not comparable to Balfe or Dunst.

    But if you’re referring to wins, Yuh-Jung Youn, Laura Dern, Regina King, Viola Davis all led the critics groups. Allison Janney was 2nd to Laurie Metcalf. So technically… yeah they’ve been a stellar indicator in this category as of late.

    Obviously I do not know who they will pick. Sure, Balfe can pick some up like Charlize Theron did for Bombshell (2) and Renee Zellweger did for Judy (8 out of 49 critics groups), but populist plays are generally not critics groups’ faves at all. You can’t exactly pretend that she can win without anything at all, just doesn’t work that way lol.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1204513948

    The hell fights over who’s going to win between that or the other, when we don’t even know the noms or saw everyone.

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    Diogo Duarte
    Joined:
    Nov 1st, 2019
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    #1204513950

    I forgot that since Green Book won Supporting Actor that means Belfast will Supporting Actress because every film follows a formerly preordained film’s exactly and the 2 are exactly the same Balfe is too good for Belfast but gonna have to try harder to convince people of her winning over Dunst rather than simply saying it’s Oscar friendly as if any of the previous winners fit some silly 1990s mold of Oscar friendly

    because it has a Green Book-like narrative. What is Belfast winning? Editing? Costumes? Cinematography? I don’t think.

    You have two options. either you think Belfast will fall over the season or that this film will only win Picture and Screenplay (Director is very unlikely is this case), which is also very unlikely despite Spotlight.

    And she has the reviews, the perfect role and all that.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
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    #1204513952

    I did not say she’s winning solely because her film will be strong, don’t put shit in my mouth to fit your narrative.

    What I obviously meant by “Oscar friendly” is her big moments are BIG and fit in the zone voters usually like to award. (even in 2010s, not that shit 90s drag you thought you ate with) Dunst is just simply isn’t the type of performance they award against someone who quite literally throws plates around and has a ton more to do.

    Hey sock-puppet, put a lid on the crude tone. Though I suppose must thank you for making my point (I also said it’s traditional) with “someone who quite literally throws plate around” LOL.

    No but seriously. Can it.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    diego
    Joined:
    Dec 10th, 2019
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    #1204513956

    Mmmm, no absolutely not, “critics favorites” usually win actually. If you’re referring to nominations, yes—some people like JLo who was 2nd in terms of critics groups wins didn’t get in. Of course, Hustlers was only ever thought to be a JLo play, so it’s not comparable to Balfe or Dunst. But if you’re referring to wins, Yuh-Jung Youn, Laura Dern, Regina King, Viola Davis all led the critics groups. Allison Janney was 2nd to Laurie Metcalf. So technically… yeah they’ve been a stellar indicator in this category as of late. Obviously I do not know who they will pick. Sure, Balfe can pick some up like Charlize Theron did for Bombshell (2) and Renee Zellweger did for Judy (8 out of 49 critics groups), but populist plays are generally not critics groups’ faves at all. You can’t exactly pretend that she can win without anything at all, just doesn’t work that way lol.

    Not one of these Oscars happened because they were the critic’s favorite.

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    Babygirl
    Joined:
    Sep 12th, 2018
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    #1204513960

    Hey sock-puppet, put a lid on the crude tone. Though I suppose must thank you for making my point with “someone who quite literally throws plate around” LOL. No but seriously. Can it.

    Anyway Balfe is winning, can’t wait for y’all to take off your stan goggles and realize this in a few months.

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