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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 4)

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204513963

    Anyway Balfe is winning, can’t wait for y’all to take off your stan goggles and realize this in a few months.

    Sure hon, will do.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    lorelei lor
    Joined:
    Dec 20th, 2017
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    #1204513969

    Told ya’ those Belfast stans are going to be extra annoying

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204513971

    Not one of these Oscars happened because they were the critic’s favorite.

    Um. Lol what sort of weird chicken-and-egg argument is this? How on earth do you know these things? Almost 50 critics groups weigh in, precursors almost always pick up the thread from there, it’s a fantastic indicator. This is basically the same thing as saying “not one of these Oscars happened because the film won People’s Choice”. How would you know?! Both things are indicators, that’s the whole point, which means… yes critics groups & People’s Choice are probably both influential!

    You really need to decide if they don’t matter at all or if Balfe will get some because I find the latter to be a lot more sensible, and it actually CAN happen despite my skepticism. Why not argue that maybe she CAN win critics groups? Doesn’t that seem better? Anyway lol, loads of Best Actress (Part 19) thread energy here now, so ima duck out.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Babygirl
    Joined:
    Sep 12th, 2018
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    #1204513975

    Told ya’ those Belfast stans are going to be extra annoying

    Nobody is more annoying here than the delusional Dunst cult but okay.

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    Edgar Pereira
    Joined:
    Jun 29th, 2011
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    #1204513979

    That moment I lost my 1/100 odds on both Balfe and Dornan because of a sudden category exchange and GoldDerby people enthusiasm about including them

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204513983

    Dunst has been under the Academy’s radar for so long now with her films being players at the Oscars with Little Women, Interview with the Vampire, Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind, Marie Antoinette. Not to mention Dunst being  ingrained in the Cannes film festival circuit having won Best Actress in 2011 and her film in 2017, The Beguiled, winning Best Director. 

    The Power of the Dog is Dunst’s time as it was for Aquette, Weisz, and Swinton who won in the Supporting Actress category with extreme good will from the career work they had put out years prior to their victory. In fact I think Dunst could win similar to Swinton with just BAFTA. Don’t underestimate Dunst.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    Rachel615
    Joined:
    Sep 20th, 2018
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    #1204513995

    There seems to be fairly widely held views that (a) it’s unlikely two actors or actresses from the same film will be nominated in the supporting categories (i.e.,not both Balfe AND Dench, not both Hinds AND Dornan), and (b) two strong nominees in the same category decrease the likelihood that either one will be nominated (Dowd and Plimpton will cancel each other out, as will Buckley and Johnson).

    Just a reminder that having two nominees from the same film in the same category has happened four different times in the last five years alone: from Three Billboards (Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson), from The Irishman (Al Pacino and Joe Pesci), from The Favourite (Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz), and from Judas and The Black Messiah (Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield). It’s actually a fairly common occurrence; it happened for The Help, The Fighter, Up on the Air, Doubt, Babel, Chicago, Gosford Park, Almost Famous, Working Girl, The Color Purple, Bullets Over Broadway, Tootsie, Kramer vs Kramer, Platoon, Bugsy, Terms of Endearment, Nashville, Paper Moon, Ordinary People, Julia, Rocky, The Godfather AND Godfather Part II, Bonnie and Clyde, The Hustler, The Last Picture Show, Airport, etc., etc., etc.

    This seems to be a very strong year in the Supporting Actress category but this early, before we’ve seen the nominations for the precursors and from the critics’ and/or film associations, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of BOTH Balfe and Dench, or BOTH Mara and Collette, or BOTH Dowd and Plimpton, or BOTH Buckley and Johnson, being nominated. It’s not tremendously likely, but it’s definitely possible.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204514001

    This seems to be a very strong year in the Supporting Actress category but this early, before we’ve seen the nominations for the precursors and from the critics’ and/or film associations, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of BOTH Balfe and Dench, or BOTH Mara and Collette, or BOTH Dowd and Plimpton, or BOTH Buckley and Johnson, being nominated. It’s not tremendously likely, but it’s definitely possible.

    I agree. Nobody’s seen Mara/Collette yet obviously, and I’ve only seen Belfast & The Lost Daughter out of these but the thing about Belfast is that it has the great mismatch between the two contenders, i.e. Balfe >> Dench, whereas with The Lost Daughter I think there’s near-parity with both having their advantages, and with Mass, well we know both are raved. So it’s a tricky case of the strongest film having the trickiest pairing, maybe? I think Dornan/Hinds and/or Smit-McPhee/Plemons are far more likely because of that category. This is in my opinion the most competitive acting category of all right now.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
    Joined:
    Apr 20th, 2019
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    #1204514017

    LOL JACOB this is actually HILARIOUS because I said that misremembering where you stood on whether she was lead or supporting. I thought you had said she was lead and so I was convinced (in my….faulty memory)…… and so I wrote that she was, but it’s been so long since I’ve seen it, but I thought I was deferring to you hahahahahahaahah. Yeah no you’re right, if that’s the case, then yeah she wasn’t lead.

    Hahahahaha. Okay. I’m actually laughing out loud that’s so funny.

    Oscars FYC:
    Picture: Dune, The Power of the Dog
    Director: Jane Campion, Denis Villeneuve
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons
    Adapted Screenplay: Dune, Passing, The Power of the Dog
    Cinematography: Dune, The Power of the Dog
    Costume Design: Dune
    Film Editing: Dune, The Power of the Dog
    Production Design: Dune, The Power of the Dog
    Sound: Dune, The Power of the Dog
    Visual Effects: Dune, Free Guy

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    diego
    Joined:
    Dec 10th, 2019
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    #1204514029

    Reading this thread will be just sad in a couple of months.

     

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    boogiezen
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2020
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    #1204514061

    An Oscar nomination for Kiki is something that I want for her after being snubbed for Melancholia.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204514063

    Obviously I prefer Dunst’s performance to Balfe’s but to defuse the bizarre tension… I really should say how much I admire her for what she did. I’d never seen her in anything before and all of a sudden I want to see her in far better films because hot damn is she talented. I forget who said this but not only is she talented, she’s 42 (!!!) but looks like a hot, young ingenue. Category favors veterans even if it’s their first nod, so it’s just a testament to her sheer talent and charisma that even somebody who dislikes the movie like me sees her as a deserving nominee. Dornan too, samesies with him.

    Yes I think she CAN pick up some critics prizes but I hafta say: damn this field is full of hot young actresses (when I say “young” it’s more their public perception, Dunst isn’t considered young anymore but she’s technically younger than Balfe lol)

    From what I’ve seen (alphabetical order), it should be:
    Balfe
    Buckley
    Dunst
    Johnson
    Negga

    Who are ALL 40ish or younger!

    …but I’m sure I will love Dowd, Plimpton, and probably Collette as well when I see their performances.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Hawk
    Joined:
    Aug 16th, 2019
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    #1204514076

    I think Balfe is in the best spot to take the win at the moment…. but to say she’s a complete lock this far out when she’s got strong competition in Dunst, Negga, and possibly Cate Fucking Blanchett is a BOLD statement.

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204514085

    The overconfidence for Balfe in October when last year in October the Supporting Actress race projected winners were Seyfried and Close with little regard to Youn as a serious contender until later in the season.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204514119

    The hell fights over who’s going to win between that or the other, when we don’t even know the noms or saw everyone.

    This forum in a nutshell.

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