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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 4)

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    JakeT
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    #1204477684

    Negga got in somewhat surprisingly first time round. I think she’ll easily make the cut. And agreed re: fewer opportunities for her. I was simply disagreeing with her being overdue a second nom. Sounds like we all share similar views.

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    crabbie
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    #1204477721

    Is Frances going supporting in Macbeth? Apparently someone from AW said she is going lead.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    nevkm
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    #1204477725

    Is Frances going supporting in Macbeth? Apparently someone from AW said she is going lead.

    She’s lead. Erik from AW was very sure about it.

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    crabbie
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    #1204477728

    She’s lead. Erik from AW seemed pretty sure about it.

    </p>
    A slot just opened up in Supporting.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    FilmRoyalty
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    #1204477742

    I can’t believe how excited I got watching the trailer for Passing.

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    Vicki Leekx
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    #1204477793

    Glad I snatched Negga at those early odds

    FYC:

    Virginie Efira, Charlotte Rampling, Lambert Wilson Benedetta (Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Noomi Rapace Lamb (Actress)
    Kristen Stewart, Sally Hawkins, Timothy Spall Spencer (Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Penelope Cruz, Israel Elejalde, Milena Smit, Julieta Serrano, Rossy de Palma Madres Paralelas (Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress)
    Jim Broadbent, Helen Mirren The Duke (Actor/Supporting Actress)

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    estrelas
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    #1204477808

    Passing trailer was beyond phenomenal and I’m even more perched for it than ever. Best black and white shots I’ve seen all year. With that said, Thompson looked better than Negga imo. I was more excited for Ruth but Tessa really stole my attention. But I don’t think they showed Ruth best moments in the trailer, so I’m still extremely perched for her. Can’t wait to watch the movie.

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    M: The Original
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    #1204478155

    I’m getting weird Regina King vibes from Ruth Negga.

    Which means she’s winning?

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    FilmRoyalty
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    #1204478243

    This category is going to be fire. Probably my most anticipated when it comes to the acting categories.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
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    #1204478321

    I’m getting weird Regina King vibes from Ruth Negga.

    I actually only sort of agreeeeee except that Dunst has been giving me Regina King vibes too. She has the most perfect moments and just THAT character who is incredibly subtle and nuanced and in such a strong contender that she does actually seem…..really strong but it’s okay if you are predicting your Amy Adams-equivalent noms for now because she probably should not seem like THAT strong a frontrunner.

    Negga is similar but her character, in contrast to Thompson’s, is much much much less subtle (still is!) because she’s BRASH and BIG and not as internal. Internal and subtle — that’s all in Tessa’s character far more. I think she gives me Regina King vibes in that if she seals it, she seals it. But it won’t seem obvious either I don’t think. She’s not the…sympathetic character as such. It’s such a difficult story to categorize characters with but being in Tessa’s character’s perspective means that she carries the sympathy far more (and that shifts!)

    I don’t know — I am SO THERE for a Dunst and Negga contest but they’re INCREDIBLY different characters. I think the King comparison just works better for Dunst even though she has almost exactly as much screentime as Cumberbatch, but King had much less. Negga will also have much more than King did. They’re not perfect analogues but I can see it for both.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204478324

    As an aside, my mother (separately) watched TPOTD and her first question was about Rose’s motivations which seem obvious even by the end, but are very much not. She zeroed in on this big scene and had an interpretation that I can find only in some LB reviews not really critics.

    Just another fascinating anecdote for me as to how vastly different TPOTD comes off to literally everyone. Passing (the book) is like that too, but I’d say much more for Tessa’s character than Negga’s because the whole thing with Negga’s character is how…she doesn’t exactly hold back in any way lol 😋

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204478342

    GD doesn’t have her in this category but I think Caitriona Balfe will go supporting and if Belfast is as strong as we suspect it might be, she could even win. I don’t think Focus will risk Dornan and Balfe getting snubbed in lead when they could both be contending for the win in supporting.

    It would not even be fraud because the boy is the only lead in the movie anyway.

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    Luca
    Joined:
    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204478385

    I don’t know where best to comment, but “Passing” looks phenomenal! I’m not looking forward to too many movies this year, but this one looks truly excellent.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204478389

    GD doesn’t have her in this category but I think Caitriona Balfe will go supporting and if Belfast is as strong as we suspect it might be, she could even win. I don’t think Focus will risk Dornan and Balfe getting snubbed in lead when they could both be contending for the win in supporting.

    It would not even be fraud because the boy is the only lead in the movie anyway.

    Does anyone know the reason that Jude Hill isn’t in the predictions center? Usually they nominate child performers in supporting even when they are the lead in their movie. Balfe in the Supporting Actress category sure would change the category but I think they will place her in lead since Dench is likely to be nominated in the Supporting Actress category. When will that decision be made? Last year wasn’t LaKeith Stanfield in lead in the predictions center and then got a Supporting Actor nomination? Maybe the academy just decides for themselves where to ultimately place the performers against the wishes of the studios.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204478450

    Reminder that, as fantastic as Passing looks, it has internal competition with TPOTD and DLU. But atm, TPOTD is Netflix champ for everything – Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor. They are not going to give up on Dunst for Negga. They will try to get both in unless they will also try to get Streep in and then things get tricky. 

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