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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 5)

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    Chloe Sevigny stan <3
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    #1204533672

    I’m very curious now to see if industry awards continue to embrace Jessie Buckley, or if there’ll be more of a split with Johnson, or if they both get dropped completely. Solely based on the trailer however, I was most compelled by Johnson and hope she can build up some steam with the precursors.

    Emmy FYC:

    Chloë Sevigny in “The Girl From Plainville” and “Russian Doll”

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204533768

    Wish Ferguson could get nominated but it is not happening😭

    Agreed with this.

    Ferguson was great and, unlike the book, it’s a proper supporting role in the movie. She’s not a borderline lead frauded in supporting. The focus of the movie is firmly on Chalamet, a de facto undisputed SOLE lead.

    That said, WB has Ellis who also plays a mother and I think she’ll be a more popular choice with AMPAS because KR is an actors movie while Dune is director and tech one. Actors are fine but their roles are rudimentary – provide some emotional enagegment for audience to care what happens and move the plot forward but aren’t deep or particularly rangey. In short, no one has the all important Oscah clip.

     

     

     

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    ShinySeaDiamond
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    #1204534203

    I’m very curious now to see if industry awards continue to embrace Jessie Buckley, or if there’ll be more of a split with Johnson, or if they both get dropped completely. Solely based on the trailer however, I was most compelled by Johnson and hope she can build up some steam with the precursors.

    I think an advantage Buckley has is that she’s probably got the more prestigious resumé as a thespian. There is probably a greater desire to reward her with a nomination than exists with Johnson, and Iris demonstrates that two actors can be nominated for playing the same character in the same movie.

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    kaziz
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    #1204534218

    People are still sleeping on Sally Hawkins I see…she has to be the most obvious coattail of the year…

    A coattail would necessitate people being certain on the film being across the board player which I think it will be, but also apparently Hawkins is fairly slight? I mean, she’s ALWAYS great, but this category honestly IS very competitive. There’s going to be so many deserving people left out in the cold, and just looking at Lead Actress, I feel like there’s around…10 real contenders there, and like 20 here lol.

    It’s sort of similar to Ferguson in a way, which is that if Dune is an across the board player it should be able to get at least one acting contender, who happens to be awesome, in — but I don’t think it will, because of competition (also Rebecca Ferguson’s upcoming arc is positively Shakesperean & she more or less takes over the story for me so Part 2….she should be able to get in!)

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    JV
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    I think Balfe would be one of the most weird winners of all time. Not because she doesn’t deserve, but because she’s 42 and her only successful project wasn a six seasons show that never got an Emmy nomination. Her first acting credit in a film was in 2009, in a short film, and she only has three credits on TV, with one of these being her voice (Dark Crystal) and a cameo in a reality show.

    At least Mahershala Ali was a rising star between House of Cards and Luke Cage.

    It would be a sign that the Academy is really changing (as if Paul Raci getting a nom wasn’t already a big sign)

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    crabbie
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    #1204534253

    I think Balfe would be one of the most weird winners of all time. Not because she doesn’t deserve, but because she’s 42 and her only successful project wasn a six seasons show that never got an Emmy nomination. Her first acting credit in a film was in 2009, in a short film,

    Yes I also think Balfe would be a very strange winner since while she is not a newcomer she is no where near the acting cachet as Ali, Arquette, Weisz, or Simmons. I would give that distinction to Dunst who fits that type of hard working industry actress who’s been in Hollywood for years winning on their first Oscar nomination.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    BenitoDelicias
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    #1204534348

    Yes I also think Balfe would be a very strange winner since while she is not a newcomer she is no where near the acting cachet as Ali, Arquette, Weisz, or Simmons. I would give that distinction to Dunst who fits that type of hard working industry actress who’s been in Hollywood for years winning on their first Oscar nomination.

    This is not the category to be worrying about unknowns, newcomers, acting cache, debut performances and so on. If there’s a category where anybody can win is this one.

    Lupita Nyongo, first of all, who won for her sort of debut. And then the zero acting cache (for voters at the time) of Jennifer Hudson, Monique, Alicia Vikander (who had worked plenty, but not in anything anybody had seen). Even Octavia Spencer with all her very small tv and film roles.

    Then this year’s winner, while not a newcomer, of course, wasn’t known at all. And the second choice for a lot of people was a newcomer or it was her debut, I don’t remember.

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    crabbie
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    #1204534359

    debut. And then the zero acting cache (for voters at the time) of Jennifer Hudson, Monique, Alicia Vikander (who had worked plenty, but not in anything anybody had seen). Even Octavia Spencer with all her very small tv and film roles.

    Hudson – Baity role singing and dancing.

    Monique – Bait. Undeniable acting masterlcass.

    Spencer – BAITY role. Incredibly baity while also fueled by a very strong narrative that aligned with Davis.

    Vikander – Baity playing a real life person who was undeniable having Ex Machina in play as well.

    Lupita – I don’t even need to elaborate how baity her role is.

    Balfe’s role is a sympathetic mother that is somewhat baity but no where near as baity as your examples like to prescribe. Newcomers are able to pierce themselves to a victory if they have the role for it. Otherwise it typically goes to veterans as it has typically went for in the past decade.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    TrumpBiden
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    Hudson – Baity role singing and dancing. Monique – Bait. Undeniable acting masterlcass. Spencer – BAITY role. Incredibly baity while also fueled by a very strong narrative that aligned with Davis. Vikander – Baity playing a real life person who was undeniable having Ex Machina in play as well. Lupita – I don’t even need to elaborate how baity her role is. Balfe’s role is a sympathetic mother that is somewhat baity but no where near as baity as your examples like to prescribe. Newcomers are able to pierce themselves to a victory if they have the role for it. Otherwise it typically goes to veterans as it has typically went for in the past decade.

    Sorry, but after watching Belfast. The whole movie is baity and her performance is a product of that.  I actually felt something like Precious was going to be a hard pill for the Academy to swallow, not even mentioning how Monique went from a joke of an actress to delivering one of the best performances this century.

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    crabbie
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    #1204534555

    Sorry, but after watching Belfast. The whole movie is baity and her performance is a product of that. I actually felt something like Precious was going to be a hard pill for the Academy to swallow, not even mentioning how Monique went from a joke of an actress to delivering one of the best performances this century.

    Jojo Rabbit was baitier and beloved with Scarjo playing a baity tragic sympathetic mother role of a victim of nazi ideology. She lost to a more esteemed veteran.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204534584

    Monique gave a powerhouse performance in a role that was going to steamroll everything in her path. Scar-Jo didn’t have that role and performance as good as they may be. Lupita was baity af but that she faced a JLaw roadblock with some percursors shows that the combo of role and performance wasn’t Monique level. And, mind you, the roadblock was a just awarded actress deemed too young for that character so not even a strong competition.

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    kaziz
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    #1204534832

    I feel like it should be more than a little obvious that 2021 is not 2009, and that using Belfast as an example of “baity” is very much living in a completely different decade. Also, there is nothing particularly Oscar-conventional about Precious. If that film came out today, Gabourey would almost definitely win and maybe Monique too (probably not just on the basis of one monologue which used to DEFINE Oscar wins, but the whole performance). It’s…not an old-fashioned film even today. It’s pretty fucking dark lol, and I’m not sure how people square Belfast being BOTH a “crowd pleaser” AND edgy/indie enough to have winners like Youn or Kaluuya. Otherwise, yes, it does mostly go to vets.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    Cosmia
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    #1204534848

    It’s a different kind of Oscar conventional. It’s melodrama, basically, albeit a good one.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204534852

    Precious is amazing and endlessly rewatchable.

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    kaziz
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    It’s a different kind of Oscar conventional. It’s melodrama, basically, albeit a good one.

    Mmm it’s not that that I meant. It’s mostly that it’s VERY “politically incorrect”: extreme negligence and abusive Black mother in “inner city”, uneducated children, all possible ills you can think of that the right used to argue were true for Black families in the 90s. The thing is that it actually WORKS, bc it pulls it off with specificity. Still, having seen it recently I can def see the razorwire it’s walking in many ways, and that was true in 2009 as well if we’re being honest. It would probably be at least a bit more controversial today, but it still actually works as a film, and that’s a little surprising.

    Nyong’o for me is more of a conventional win — but for an Academy that was trying to sort of…almost make up for not rewarding The Color Purple or something. I feel like that was a thing & the “slavery film” is a little passe now because Black people have made it pretty darn clear it’s mostly torture-porn. Nyong’o was also very very good with a fairly weak lineup (okay, Roberts was the best, but she was never going to win, the film just wasn’t received well enough) but OK I’ll grant that it’s the “baity” role for a newcomer, but I don’t think that’s really true for other 2010s winners, and even Vikander-like wins seem REALLY old-fashioned now.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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