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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 5)

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    loudtoilet
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    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204540239

    Keeping my 500-points on this category all year given some of the early odds I picked up. 😀 (Just wish I could’ve gotten to Balfe sooner, it took her a while to show up in my predictions center before I got busy with work) 1. Catriona Balfe 2. Aunjanue Ellis 3. Kirsten Dunst 4. Ruth Negga 5. Meryl Streep (3 Netflix contenders too much?) 

    Yes.

    Balfe, Ellis and Dunst look rock solid. The rest is in the flux. It won’t be 2 more from Netflix.I’d say if it’s down to Negga and Streep, Streep stays.

     

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    kaziz
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    #1204540366

    Just read this post and your other one to me above this one. Thanks for your insight! I hope I didn’t sound dismissive of Johnson’s work, but I realize that’s most likely how it came off. I took a lot of this to heart and did some rethinking of her performance, and I think I underestimated how much of an impact she actually had on the story. I do feel there’s this sort of obscurity about her that furthers Leda’s descending into wrongdoing (if that makes any sense at all). And that scene with Leda at the very end was very shocking and Johnson impressed me there. I guess Buckley’s turn was ultimately more affecting for me because honestly, she scared me haha. But I think I let too many reviews and my bias for Buckley cloud potential for holistic judgment for Johnson’s performance. I do think I would prefer a nom for Buckley, but Johnson definitely surprised me here, even though I figured she was always capable of this and just needed a vehicle for it.

    Oh yeah ofc not a problem, it wasn’t dismissive at all! Thanks so much for reading! I think it is perfectly possible and I’d say more likely that critics groups agree with your take more, because yeah… Buckley has been a millisecond away from being in the Oscar conversation for some time now! She was def scary but also she did pull in some of Dakota’s elements too — the way the children behave, the film does make you feel bad for their mothers, and then you (the viewer)….feel guilty for feeling that way? At least that’s how I felt with the book and the film (also, the trailer emphasizes this very thing, which I love).

    Nina is also I guess the only real character who ever actually…..mmm, poses a substantial challenge to Leda in her descent as with that scene you mentioned. It’s sooooo nice to have Johnson be a character with equal agency opposite Olivia Colman, and see her nail it! Ya I loved it.

    Funnily enough, I guess I always thought she was capable of this but I’ve honestly been waiting for some wowza moment from her forever (even during 50 Shades, it felt like Jamie Dornan got the KStew treatment, most people were like oh Dakota Johnson has so much promise!) But I just don’t think I saw it till now. I’ve honestly been low key disappointed that she didn’t totally nail Suspiria or A Bigger Splash (she’s good in them, just not great imo). Hopefully this role is a game changer for her regardless of the nom. We KNOW Buckley is coming with Women Talking next year lol

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204540383

    Buckley is a WUNDERKIND. FYI — what are folx’s fave performances by Buckley. I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Wild Rose, Beast, and I watched some eps of Fargo S4 just for her lol, which is the only season I haven’t fully watched.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    #1204540395
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    loudtoilet
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    #1204540410

    Davis scenes can scream Oscar nomination all they want but if this movie was a contender than we would have seen much more of it already and it wouldn’t be released in the shadow of X number of movies.

    Ellis has a movie that’s going to be an across the board contender including Picture. She’s safe for a nom, looking good for a win. That WorldofReel pundit called her movie the frontrunner today. King Richard cast is coming in a big way.

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    BigJay2012
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    Nov 30th, 2011
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    #1204540418

    I mean they both could be nominated.

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    MysticMagix
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    Feb 23rd, 2017
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    #1204540420

    Hehehe hope viola gets in

    A little bit of Magic never hurt anybody.

    ~ MYSTIC

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204540436

    Davis scenes can scream Oscar nomination all they want but if this movie was a contender than we would have seen much more of it already and it wouldn’t be released in the shadow of X number of movies.

    This. It’s Netflix finding it has to clear its 2021 docket and finally getting around to the long-ignored Sandra Bullock film, which had to have been quietly riding the shelf for a reason while even misfires like The Starling got better play. I’m figuring Unforgivable reviews will be around Starling level.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204540443

    Yep. people are streching thesmelves too thin. It’s obvious which late movies can/will break. This isn’t one.

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    Luca
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    #1204540506

    Even as a mega stan, I do not see Davis factoring into the conversation much. This movie hit zero festivals and has been noticeably under-promoted. Could I be wrong? Sure. Would I like to be wrong? Hell yes. We shall see.

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    kaziz
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    #1204540535

    I think Aunjanue is really underestimated for the win. For one King Richard has proven to be a crowd pleaser ( based on screenings).and while Will Smith is getting amazing reviews, reports from screenings show that people were even more impressed by Aunjanue. Also after watching the Unforgiven trailer, I fear Viola Davis might be coming, her Scenes shown in the trailer scream oscar nomination.

    It’s very possible but that’s precisely it: Will Smith is the presumptive winner as of now and that messes up people’s predix because of the unlikeliness of 2 winners. If a film is winning both a Lead+Supporting pairing, it’s probably a bigggg contender to win BP (like 3BB was).

    Plus, it’s just real tough to win 2! Since 2000, only 5 films have had 2 winners, which is why it’s I think it’s often hard for people to predict it.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204540649

    King Richard doesn’t seem strong enough to get two acting wins. It might be The Help 2.0. And if BAFTA doesn’t go for Ellis, having only SAG as a precursor win is not enough as demonstrated by this years SAG going to Davis.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    Villeneuve
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    Apr 8th, 2020
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    #1204540692

    Aunjanue Ellis is coming, every single time that movie screens somewhere there’s nothing but raves for her! Couldn’t happen to a more deserving underrated queen

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    BigJay2012
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    #1204540697

    Aunjanue Ellis is coming, every single time that movie screens somewhere there’s nothing but raves for her! Couldn’t happen to a more deserving underrated queen

    Agreed. I hope she wins.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204540709

    IMO Aunjanue Ellis will definitely get nominated but King Richard isn’t going to win two acting Oscars. Dallas Buyers ClubThree Billboards and The Fighter are the only films this century that have won two acting Oscars and both the winning performances in each of those were quite baity (likewise the latter two films were top tier Picture contenders).

    Don’t get me wrong I’d love to see it (she’s been incredible in absolutely everything she’s been in, she was nomination worthy in the few minutes of screen time she had in If Beale Street Could Talk) and there’s an argument to be made she fits the trend of Emmy nominated/winning actresses triumphing here but the field is a lot more competitive than it has been in the past and her role doesn’t seem as baity as those that have been winning here recently.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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