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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 5)

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    Cosmia
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    Oct 19th, 2021
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    #1204542302

    But why not? Ferguson was incredible AND she’s a supporting actress, Charlize Theron was competing in lead actress…

    Obviously it’s not apples to apples, but Theron gave one of the best performances I’ve ever seen and got snubbed because it was in Mad Max. Unless Ferguson is absolute perfection I just don’t see how a movie like Dune gets nominated for acting.

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    kbc
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    #1204542328

    Back to the supporting actress.

    I believe that Dune is going to have such a momentum that will pay way for a nomination for Rebecca Ferguson.

    Kirsten Dunst (Best Picture nom)
    Ann Dowd
    Rebecca Ferguson (Best Picture nom)
    Aunjanue Ellis (Best Picture nom)
    Caitriona Balfe (Best Picture nom)

    Toni Collette (Best Picture nom?)
    Kathryn Hunter
    Ruth Negga (Best Picture nom?)
    Marlee Matlin
    Sally Hawkins (Best Picture nom?)
    Glenn Close

    Martha Plimpton should be anywhere Ann Dowd is listed, right on the level.

    No Jessie Buckley or Dakota Johnson (Best Picture nom?)?, and apparently it’s possible Frances McDormand (Best Picture nom?) may end up contesting in this race, we’ll see how Apple/A24 play it. And of course we should never sleep on Meryl Streep (Best Picture nom?).

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204542593

    Obviously it’s not apples to apples, but Theron gave one of the best performances I’ve ever seen and got snubbed because it was in Mad Max. Unless Ferguson is absolute perfection I just don’t see how a movie like Dune gets nominated for acting.

    While you are not wrong, there are differences:

    Theron was competing in tough to break Lead. Ferguson is competing in Supporting which is an easier category, hence so many L2S frauds and so little S2L ones. Not that Ferguson would be a fraud, just saying that the categiry is de factor easier. Also see Dunst and Balfe as possible L2S frauds.

    However, there’s no denying that Furiosa was a major point of praise for FR while the same is not the case with Lady Jessica in Dune, a movie that’s seen much more as a tech marvel than an actor one. So when you compare reviews for Theron, which make her central for success, and Ferguson which are “she was the best in the underused cast”/”she’s the heart of the somewhat coldish movie” variety, one is a contender while the other not so much. In every movie even bad ones someone is going to get “steals every scene he/she is in” notice. But that doesn’t mean they are going to be nominated. I’d wager ben Affleck’s “steals the movie” notices for The Last Duel are much stronger than Ferguson’s casue they also have the irrestitible “who knew he could do that?” wonderment. But he isn’t happening though her movie is in better position to coattail.

    That said, since I don’t believe in Mass nominations, between Ellis, Dunst, Balfe and 2 more (Streep? Another Belfast? Nightmare Alley girl but who?) Ferguson might as well sneak in as the 5th spot. Tough but not impossible. I’d say depends on late breakers. if Streep/Nightmare deliver, they are in. Ellis, Dunst and Balfe ain’t moving.

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    estrelas
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    #1204542719

    I saw the Experts predictions for Supporting Actress and almost got a stroke. The cluelessness jumped out. The way so many don’t have Dunst or Balfe is sending. Especially when many have Mass getting two people or winning for one them and/or Matlin getting in over The Power of the Dog and Belfast ladies. They’re literally the strongest contenders (at the moment) alongside Ellis.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204542723

    Nobody outside of GD gives a **** about Mass. Movie’s a bomb, has too many actors all of them trying to get in supporting. Not happening.

    Ellis

    Dunst

    Balfe

    Late breaker or Dench

    Late breaker

    That’s all.

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    estrelas
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    #1204542729

    Regarding the Ferguson vs Theron comparisons, you guys realise when you say Supporting Actress is open, that Best Actress was a landfill that year right? Outside Larson, Ronan and Blanchett, the other two spots were literally open. They name checked Lawrence for one of her least interesting performances and nominated Rampling for a British Indie movie, that not even BAFTA nominated. Theron was massively acclaimed and is a previous Oscar winner and still got overlooked for more traditional movie performances. Dune is not even remotely close to being as acclaimed as Mad Max: Fury Road and Ferguson’s performance isn’t as acclaimed as Theron’s. I would love for her to happen, she was by far the best part of Dune, but I’m not buying into an Oscar nomination.

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    James Gibson
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    #1204542732

    Mass that very early contender that pundits have high in their rankings the entire year only to switch everything up last minute early december.
    But everyone knows this one will likely flop due to a very poor promotion from its distributor that fails to break even the necessary industry people.

    FYC: Memoria and House of Gucci for Best Picture

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    wolfali
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    #1204542743

    Regarding the Ferguson vs Theron comparisons, you guys realise when you say Supporting Actress is open, that Best Actress was a landfill that year right? Outside Larson, Ronan and Blanchett, the other two spots were literally open. They name checked Lawrence for one of her least interesting performances and nominated Rampling for a British Indie movie, that not even BAFTA nominated. Theron was massively acclaimed and is a previous Oscar winner and still got overlooked for more traditional movie performances. Dune is not even remotely close to being as acclaimed as Mad Max: Fury Road and Ferguson’s performance isn’t as acclaimed as Theron’s. I would love for her to happen, she was by far the best part of Dune, but I’m not buying into an Oscar nomination.

    Likewise Ferguson doesn’t have the same amount of industry respect as Theron who of course is an Oscar wining actress.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    JV
    Joined:
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    #1204542745

    Regarding the Ferguson vs Theron comparisons, you guys realise when you say Supporting Actress is open, that Best Actress was a landfill that year right? Outside Larson, Ronan and Blanchett, the other two spots were literally open. They name checked Lawrence for one of her least interesting performances and nominated Rampling for a British Indie movie, that not even BAFTA nominated. Theron was massively acclaimed and is a previous Oscar winner and still got overlooked for more traditional movie performances. Dune is not even remotely close to being as acclaimed as Mad Max: Fury Road and Ferguson’s performance isn’t as acclaimed as Theron’s. I would love for her to happen, she was by far the best part of Dune, but I’m not buying into an Oscar nomination.

    And… there’s also the more obvious  comparison:

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204542788

    Ferguson also doesn’t have a clip/scene. She’s great overall but no scene like You Shall Not Pass to stay in mind. Also, her character kind of fades away and doesn’t close the chapter with a bang cause Chalamet takes over to close it for both.

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    OneAndOnly
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    #1204543005

    People still think Ann Dowd is getting in…?

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC:
    Succession
    The Great
    Nine Days
    Mass

    Straight/BLM

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    estrelas
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    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1204543022

    People still think Ann Dowd is getting in…?

    People still think she can win…

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204543067

    Negga should still be in the conversation for a slot in Supporting Actress.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    alittle03
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    #1204543091

    Negga should still be in the conversation for a slot in Supporting Actress.

    Your spillage. I definitely think she’s going to rack up some critic awards which should help her since I don’t see her film being too big of a player and that she’ll be more likely to be in the final five. Winning is another question, but she’s really being underestimated.

    FYC -
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
    Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
    O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
    A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
    Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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    estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1204543122

    Negga is still very much in the conversation for both the nom and win. She could very well gather enough passion to push her to the finish line.

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