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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 5)

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    crabbie
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    #1204514438

    It’s heartbreaking to see Nightmare Alley miss festivals since the supporting contenders are being the most hurt by the omission. Del Toro can maintain the buzz for the film without festivals in Picture and Director, but the acting contenders would have gotten a substantial boost at a festival showing to build buzz. Because as it stands right now, we have no idea whether Mara or Collette will be the supporting actress push. There is too much discourse surrounding both actresses role like if Collette has too much of a small role or if Mara will be pushed in lead. Then there is Blanchett who we really don’t know what category she will he campaigned in. Her role is still mysterious in Del Toro’s adaptation, but more importantly Searchlight can push her in Supporting to pave Chastain in Lead. Without anyone seeing the film, the Supporting Actress contenders for the film will face an uphill battle up until December when the film finally is released. And even if there is a clear supporting actress push from the film when it’s clear one of them will be nominated, December will be too late to build buzz and construct narratives to push the actress into Oscar glory.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    kaziz
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    #1204514461

    It’s heartbreaking to see Nightmare Alley miss festivals since the supporting contenders are being the most hurt by the omission. Del Toro can maintain the buzz for the film without festivals in Picture and Director, but the acting contenders would have gotten a substantial boost at a festival showing to build buzz. Because as it stands right now, we have no idea whether Mara or Collette will be the supporting actress push. There is too much discourse surrounding both actresses role like if Collette has too much of a small role or if Mara will be pushed in lead. Then there is Blanchett who we really don’t know what category she will he campaigned in. Her role is still mysterious in Del Toro’s adaptation, but more importantly Searchlight can push her in Supporting to pave Chastain in Lead. Without anyone seeing the film, the Supporting Actress contenders for the film will face an uphill battle up until December when the film finally is released. And even if there is a clear supporting actress push from the film when it’s clear one of them will be nominated, December will be too late to build buzz and construct narratives to push the actress into Oscar glory.

    I think you’re right about the WIN but it’s good that this category only really has Collette, Mara, DeBose as late contenders like with Bates, Robbie etc., the critics groups and precursors will have the screeners before release so they’ll def watch them. Based off everything we know I kinda wish everyone would just accept that all evidence points to Blanchett as lead by way of her being the antagonist, even if Mara has more screentime. It’s how the studio has positioned them, if it’s the other way round they’ll swap them & whoever is good will be fine for the nod either way.

    Really feel like the source material is tripping people up WAY too much. It’s Guillermo del Toro lol, he’s the last person I can think of to make a straight adaptation, so the Vanity Fair article gives us what we need and we probably don’t need to overthink it beyond that until the studio switches them or something. Frankly I’m more worried about the FILM, what with Alexandre Desplat exiting…

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
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    #1204514488

    Frankly I’m more worried about the FILM, what with Alexandre Desplat exiting…

    Apparently editing for the film has yet to be finished as well. I’m getting Mank 2.0 vibes from Nightmare Alley as a major tech player but lacks passion.

    Based off everything we know I kinda wish everyone would just accept that all evidence points to Blanchett as lead by way of her being the antagonist,

    Thats true but Searchlight could fraud Blanchett in Supporting if they think Chastain still has a shot in lead. UGHH. It’s frustrating not knowing anything about everyone’s roles since if Blanchett was an unequivocal lead she would be pushed in lead regardless.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204514530

    Dunst, Balfe, Ellis, Negga, Dench, Collette, Mara, Johnson, Blanchett, Buckley, Hunter, King, Smit, Dowd, Houdyshell, DeBose.

    The final 5 containing an assortment of these strong performances is already stronger than the last 2 years supporting performances.

    Don’t forget Plimpton, and thank you for not sleeping on Milena Smit. Also, Molly Parker is on my list – she’s excellent. Fingers crossed for a Spirit nom at least!

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    OneFourthToEGOT
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    #1204514636

    I’m sooooo curious if Glenn Close’s role in Swan Song is juicy enough to be a late-breaking contender. Probably not, but there’s clearly a base of support for her given all her noms for Hillbilly Elegy, plus the news that Sunset Boulevard has stalled might compel voters to take action. Apple does seem to see it as an awards play, and it’s probably better for her campaign not to be overhyped so far in advance.

    Also curious about Naomie Harris and Awkwafina for the same film. It does seem to be a quiet, contemplative drama, although given the near-future setting, the film needs to be great (unlike the last three films Glenn was nominated for). Guess we’ll have a better idea after the November AFI premiere and/or when the trailer lands.

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    #1204514664
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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204514733

    Del Toro rushing to finish “Nightmare Alley” (editing still not finished, plus sudden change of composer) doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in this movie.

    As for the supporting roles in NA, they probably want to see who gets the raves and decide whether to campaign Blanchett lead and Mara/Collette supporting or all supporting. The roles seem borderline enough to be able to play a little bit with the award and get at least one strong acting nomination.

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    Stank83
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    #1204514736

    1. Kirsten Dunst

    2. Caitriona Balfe

    3. Aunjanue Ellis

    4. Ruth Negga

    5. Meryl Streep

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    Elsa Korr
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    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204514740

    Kirsten Dunst
    Caitriona Balfe
    Aunjanue Ellis
    Ruth Negga
    Rooney Mara

    Conflicted on who to pick from Nightmare Alley, but ultimately picked Mara assuming Blanchett goes lead and Collette role’s is too small

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    Diogo Duarte
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    Nov 1st, 2019
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    #1204514831

    1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

    2. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

    3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

    4. Judi Dench, Belfast

    5. Ruth Nega, Passing

    ALT: Meryl Streep, Dont Look Up or Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

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    Barbra Please
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    Oct 21st, 2018
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    #1204514891

    Why everyone suddenly drops Dowd 😭

    FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION DARLING.
    Tessa Thompson, Lead Actress for PASSING
    Ruth Negga, Supporting Actress for PASSING
    Charlotte Rampling, Supporting Actress for BENEDETTA
    Martha Plimpton, Supporting Actress for MASS
    Arawinda Kirana, Lead Actress for YUNI
    Kathryn Hunter, Supporting Actress for THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

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    kaziz
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    #1204514927

    Thats true but Searchlight could fraud Blanchett in Supporting if they think Chastain still has a shot in lead. UGHH. It’s frustrating not knowing anything about everyone’s roles since if Blanchett was an unequivocal lead she would be pushed in lead regardless.

    But isn’t she? lol I’m confused, what do you mean? The logline of the film makes it seem like the Cooper-Blanchett show, as does the Vanity Fair article & currently she’s in the lead category on GD. Ideally if they’re confused they’ll….show it to people which is clearly what happened with Balfe/Dornan. But I’m not even sure there’s much doubt here. They wouldn’t want all 3 in supporting, and Searchlight can work with 2 contenders (they might…wanna…have more than Chastain….esp for Best Actress! lol Tammy Faye is such a tenuous wagon to hitch your ride on)

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    loudtoilet
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204515013

    yeah, Blanchett in Supporting doesn’t make sense when your Actress hopeful is Tammy Faye lololololol. Nightmare Alley is going to do better critically and boxofficewise than TF and Searchlight wants their eggs in different baskets. So SupActress will be between Collette and Mara. Don’t expect both cause category is getting stacked and if a movie pulls 2 noms it’s gonna be Belfast.

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204515028

    Blanchett and Mara are borderline Lead/Supporting characters and they could be placed either way. It’s Stanton Carlisle show. Toni Colette has a small, but memorable, supporting role.

    Whatever decision the studio takes, the screentime nerds are probably going to say that “it’s category fraud”.

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    mf617
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    Oct 17th, 2011
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    #1204515032

    Why everyone suddenly drops Dowd 😭

    As anyone who saw the film’s rollout plan for the last two months before this would tell you, Bleecker Street massively messed up here. The film had a minimal fall festival presence and didn’t play at any majors after Sundance. There was, as far as I can tell, one short trailer that was mostly critics quotes released, in addition to a few clips. Honestly, even the poster looked tacky as hell. They went for a limited release whereas most “limited” films this year have had decent exposure because of an urgency to make money. Bleecker attempted an NY/LA first week release and it has not worked out well for them. The film expands later this month, but there is no buzz outside of film Twitter.

    The push behind Dowd came from the fact that she was the most awards-friendly name in the cast and there is not really a definitive standout among the four (everyone has their favorites), so I think the fact that there is no narrative saying SHE is the reason to see the movie makes it difficult for her to rise above her other cast mates, in addition to the fact that a lot of people don’t know that this movie exists. As the rest of the field firms up, “Mass” needed to have an aggressive push that Bleecker was unable to provide, which was ultimately the consensus everyone had when it was announced they would be the studio picking up the film. I like the film and I do think Dowd gives a great performance, but I’m also realistic in noticing that unless critics really go to bat for this film in December and unless the buzz and promotion kicks into high gear later this month, it is tough seeing “Mass” making a dent at all this awards season.

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