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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 5)

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    crabbie
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    #1204556140

    At this point I’m worried about Dunst. It’s her vs Negga for the 5th slot and based on what people are saying about their respective performances (and my fears that PotD could slip up)… I think I’m gonna go with Negga.

    Why is TPOTD considered to be slipping up when Belfast has been underperforming in these past 2 weeks missing at Gothams and getting snubbed for Best Film, Screenpkay, and Director at BIFA today. Yet no one doubts Balfe’s nomination status. For the record, both Dunst and Balfe are safe for a nomination and are the easily in the top 3 nominations.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204556142

    Why is TPOTD considered to be slipping up when Belfast has been underperforming in these past 2 weeks missing at Gothams and getting snubbed for Best Film, Screenpkay, and Director at BIFA today. Yet no one doubts Balfe’s nomination status. For the record, both Dunst and Balfe are safe for a nomination and are the easily in the top 3 nominations.

    To be fair, I think the same about Belfast, but I feel Balfe is safer than Dunst because it seems as though her performance is more Academy friendly. It’s also a gut feeling I have.

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    crabbie
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    #1204556148

    To be fair, I think the same about Belfast, but I feel Balfe is safer than Dunst because it seems as though her performance is more Academy friendly. It’s also a gut feeling I have.

    What does academy friendly even mean with the changing Academy? Bakalova and Raci were nominated this year and they don’t really have conventional “academy friendly” roles. And that’s not even mentioning Dunst isn’t some kind of unknown actress. She’s had nomination buzz since the 90’s with Interview with a Vampire. This is her time.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    George Ehret
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    #1204556150

    What does academy friendly even mean with the changing Academy? Bakalova and Raci were nominated this year and they don’t really have conventional “academy friendly” roles. And that’s not even mentioning Dunst isn’t some kind of unknown actress. She’s had nomination buzz since the 90’s with Interview with a Vampire. This is her time.

    I would put a big asterisks on last year, but yes you are correct. Maybe this is just me listening to pundits too much and/or panicking

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    crabbie
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    #1204556152

    I would put a big asterisks on last year, but yes you are correct. Maybe this is just me listening to pundits too much and/or panicking

    You mean the pundits still pushing the Matlin and Dowd winning agenda? Or the ones who spam crowdpleaser in every remark they utter.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    George Ehret
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    #1204556154

    You mean the pundits still pushing the Matlin and Dowd winning agenda? Or the ones who spam crowdpleaser in every remark they utter.

    A little bit of both tbh

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204556156

    To be fair, I think the same about Belfast, but I feel Balfe is safer than Dunst because it seems as though her performance is more Academy friendly. It’s also a gut feeling I have.

    OK ngl, it’s a bit of a pickle who to drop, but…….I’m definitely not dropping Balfe or Dunst… they’re the safest ones here :/ there’s really no reason to doubt either of them. Not just definite BP nominees, but BP frontrunners. I’m going to have to bite the bullet on Buckley for now, but it feels like Dunst, Balfe, Ellis, Negga in that order for the nomination. Now obviously for the win, I believe Negga is more competitive than Balfe, but in terms of a nomination, people seem more likely to see Belfast than Passing. I don’t see why Dunst is any different in that respect. She’s great, the film’s great and one of the two main frontrunners, she doesn’t have internal competition, she has a narrative… Feels like quibbling to doubt her. And of course, you all know I’m skeptical of this “more Academy-friendly business” anyway. Even without a more auteurist-oriented Academy, I just don’t see why Belfast is more Academy friendly honestly. It’s that whole crowdpleasing rigmarole, it’s so frustrating when applied to this film, as opposed to, say, CODA or even Dune honestly.

    Also, I don’t generally think the safest nominations necessarily mean the safest wins in any case, especially given that the former are decided by the acting branch alone, and the latter by all of AMPAS. By the time they vote on wins, there’s often a much heavier consensus too, which probably does really help contenders from films like Minari, Beale Street etc.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204556159

    Quite confident in this lineup: Caitriona Balfe, Belfast Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard  Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204556161

    Bigger open question for me: Mara is billed at….what, 4th, in the trailer? Obviously people discussed category shifts but we didn’t expect it given the marketing……what is happening with this damn movie?? So many troubling signs of it being rushed and I REALLY want it to succeed and it’s bothering me lol

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204556162

    Listen to @crabbie @emmastoner – Dunst and Balfe are going to be embraced for their work, even if the overall Ampas love for their films may not be as robust as forecast in some quarters.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204556166

    Mara is billed at….what, 4th, in the trailer?

    After Cooper they’re all billed alphabetically but yeah… worrisome she’s billed so low for a co-lead.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204556172

    After Cooper they’re all billed alphabetically but yeah… worrisome she’s billed so low for a co-lead.

    Gosh I basically forgot about that, even though it’s definitely not intuitive for that to be the case (what if it just so happened that Blanchett was originally co-lead, as the literal logline suggested, and just happens to have a convenient last name lol. Regardless loads of people who aren’t on GD to be corrected would’ve assumed Blanchett had higher billing?) I have no idea, it all feels so weird and unsettling, and it’s probably the latebreaker I’m looking forward to the most.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204556175

    After Cooper they’re all billed alphabetically but yeah… worrisome she’s billed so low for a co-lead.

    Why do I get the feeling this was done last minute💀. I mean the poster of the film is literally just Bradley Cooper’s face. It’s difficult to expect there are two unequivocal co-leads of the film with that kind of presentation. Also about the poster, Cooper is billed first since is he lead. Then everyone else is billed alphabetical, but why is Mara not below Cooper since they are BOTH co-leads lmao. Only Cooper gets special lead actor treatment?

    Pre FYC business, Blanchett and Cooper relationship was emphasized in the Vanity Fair interview and the trailer spends a substantial amount of time with Blanchett and Cooper’s characters interacting. With how competitive Best Actress is, I wonder if Blanchett is pushed in supporting to increase her chances at an Oscar nomination. This is getting into conspiracy territory though.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    Posts:
    #1204556180

    This is getting into conspiracy territory though.

    Lol everything about Nightmare Alley feels like conspiracy territory at this point. I almost feel like it’s an elaborate prank 😭 I’m genuinely very psyched out.

    Also, I dunno if dropping her to supporting even does super duper help because I genuinely do see supporting as more competitive than lead this year. It might help…….Mara? Honestly she’s got the best part in the whole film for me. Anyway WHO KNOWS.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204556182

    Lol everything about Nightmare Alley feels like conspiracy territory at this point. I almost feel like it’s an elaborate prank 😭 I’m genuinely very psyched out.

    The film is still in post-production polishing up on sound design and then touching up VFX in the upcoming weeks according to Del Toro’s Twitter. This feels rushed and a bit concerning. Nightmare Alley’s first screening begins on December 1 in LA based on Searchlight FYC screening schedule. So the clock is ticking.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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