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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 5)

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  • Profile picture
    BetteDavisEyes
    Joined:
    Apr 23rd, 2021
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    #1204530351

    Dowd is over, Ruth is coming y’all 

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    alittle03
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    Sep 16th, 2020
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    #1204530614

    “Netflix is set to campaign Kirsten Dunst for Best Supporting Actress during 2022 Award Season for ‘THE POWER OF THE DOG’.”

    Not that we didn’t already know, I’m just using this as an excuse to tell everyone that I need Kirsten Dunst to get nominated (and win) for her performance.

    FYC -
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
    Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
    O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
    A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
    Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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    roger88
    Joined:
    Sep 20th, 2012
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    #1204530711

    As much as I admire her performance, I’m unsure that Dowd has a “grip on the race” anywhere other than Gold Derby.

    The pundits were actually quite bullish on the film’s chances tbh.

    I don’t disagree that Dowd isn’t the big contender that she’s been hyped up to be but why are we acting like a Gotham snub automatically means an Oscar snub. These are the same people who snubbed Mulligan, Kirby, Davis and The Father last year.

    Yeah, but at different of Mass, these films did a fall festival route or came with big studios. They won accolades between Venice and the Gothams. I knew from the minute “Mass” didn’t make the fall festival route, Bleecker Street would flop terribly for this film.

    A film like “Mass” really needed this to stay alive. They managed so badly in campaign and the pundits instead of helping, hurt the movie.

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    FilmRoyalty
    Joined:
    Oct 5th, 2011
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    #1204530985

    Nominees????

    -Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)
    -Ann Dowd (Mass)
    -Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
    -Kirsten Dunst (The Power of Dog)
    -Ruth Negga (Passing)

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    vertibort6
    Joined:
    Sep 17th, 2021
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    #1204530999

    Has anyone really seen The power of the dog? Does KD have chances to get the Oscar?

    I absolutely love her but I think that the industry have been extremely dismissive with her. Is this performance powerful enough to change that pattern?

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    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204531010

    I don’t disagree that Dowd isn’t the big contender that she’s been hyped up to be but why are we acting like a Gotham snub automatically means an Oscar snub. These are the same people who snubbed Mulligan, Kirby, Davis and The Father last year.

    I don’t think The Father and Promising Young Woman were eligible. Pieces of a Woman had a lukewarm reception with critics.

    Mass is supposed to do well with this kind of demographic, because it’s an indie darling. The jury watched the movie and decided to only nominate Reed Birney, with three slots open. The movie also missed Breakthrough Director and Screenplay, which were among the most praised aspects of the movie. Everybody knows that Fran Kranz is a first time director. Not to mention the obvious Bleecker Street factor and that Mass didn’t go to any fall festival.

    It’s not about the nomination of it all, but the visibility in industry that a award like this could bring into the indie demographic at the Academy

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204531021

    Promising Young Woman were eligible. Pieces of a Woman had a lukewarm reception with critics.

    Promising Young Woman and The Father were eligible for the independent sprits and they have a stricter budget requirement than the Gothams ($22.5 million vs $35 million).

    I don’t disagree with you that Mass‘s snubs aren’t great for its chances but my point is that at the end of the day these awards only go to promote performances that have passion. Just like the BAFTA jury system, just because they have a few snubs here or there it doesn’t mean those who miss out can’t find passion elsewhere.

    Riz Ahmed and Yuh-jung Youn’s nominations went to show how much passion they had but Viola Davis, Carey Mulligan and Vanessa Kirby getting snubbed for critically raved performances wasn’t some foretelling of them getting snubbed at the Oscars.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    Cosmia
    Joined:
    Oct 19th, 2021
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    #1204531058

    What’s the deal with Bleecker Street, and why do they always shit the bed?

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204531061

    What’s the deal with Bleecker Street, and why do they always shit the bed?

    They’re a very small (arguably independent) distributor who keep buying critically raved indie films with high profile names attached and then messing up their distribution strategy.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204531070

    I don’t remember The Father being eligible at the Independent Spirits. Neither of its director/writer or producers are americans.

    The Film Independent has two criterias, Promising Young Woman takes place in the USA and this was enough to make it eligible.

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    roger88
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    Sep 20th, 2012
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    #1204531072

    The Father was only eligible in International Film. That was confirmed just before the nominations announcement.

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    estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1204531092

    The Film Independent has two criterias, Promising Young Woman takes place in the USA and this was enough to make it eligible.

    Promising Young Woman production company is american. Margot Robbie’s production company, which is based in LA, produced the movie. It was eligible for both the Gotham and Spirit Awards.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204531096

    It even won two spirit awards 🙂

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    Sab227
    Joined:
    Dec 29th, 2012
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    #1204531112

    Has anyone really seen The power of the dog? Does KD have chances to get the Oscar?

    I absolutely love her but I think that the industry have been extremely dismissive with her. Is this performance powerful enough to change that pattern?

    I watched The Power of the Dog about a month ago and I remember thinking that it’s not really a Oscar winning role. To be honest I would not be surprised if she was not nominated.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204531117

    Riz Ahmed and Yuh-jung Youn’s nominations went to show how much passion they had but Viola Davis, Carey Mulligan and Vanessa Kirby getting snubbed for critically raved performances wasn’t some foretelling of them getting snubbed at the Oscars.

    I mean…it was some foretelling, but I think it’s also about peaking at the right time? The Gothams are the earliest, and the critics groups—of which there are 49!—will often make their own choices with more time. Sure, Regina Hall in Support the Girls was nominated by the Gothams and went on to get some critics awards but Carey Mulligan in PYW wasn’t but she went on to LEAD with critics groups. Some years they foretold as many as 3/5 eventual nominees (2016, and 2/5 in 2017, 2020) and some years they foretell none (2019) but I think what happens is that some films—like Promising Young Woman—picked up steam just a bit later than the Gothams. It became SUPER zeitgeist in Dec/Jan, if I remember correctly so maybe it’s not so surprising that it had 3 nominees from Sundance and just happened to miss one.

    Not to mention, before this year there was only 2 categories (actor/actress) where both lead and supporting were one and the same (10 nominees total) and there’s more slots now (17 total)

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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