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Oscars 2022 Predictions Center Now Open (Make Your 1st Picks Today!)

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204361090

    I know the odds never make sense at the start of the season, but there are some truly bizarre odds in here. Sian Heder being in the top 5 for Best Director for an August Sundance indie (when the lead of said Sundance indie isn’t in the top 20)? Steven Yeun being anywhere near being nominated for The Humans? Ann Dowd having the best odds in Best Supporting Actress despite having a studio that almost never gets anyone nominated? Corey Hawkins being top 4 for Macbeth (is that role ever something that gets awards traction) and a significant number of people thinking Ben Affleck has an actual shot for The Last Duel? Blonde having 100/1 odds in Picture and Director but 7/1 odds in Screenplay? Also, there are some clear mistakes in the predictions center. Among other things, Don’t Worry Darling got pushed to 2022, Anya Taylor-Joy is not being pushed in lead for Last Night in Soho and is not in Parallel Mothers, Anders Danielsen Lie should be in the prediction center for The Worst Person in the World, and there’s no way Adam Driver is going lead for The Last Duel.

    Agree totally. Macbeth is a great play and Corey Hawkins is a good actor, but… MacDuff is a cipher of a role. And, unfortunately for Macbeth, it’s not like, say, Othello, where there is a chance of everyone getting nominated. Macbeth’s two best and, perhaps, only two particularly memorable characters are Macbeth and Lady Macbeth. My feeling is that Brendan Gleeson might make a bigger impression. Duncain is probably the third best role and would require an actor of presence to pull it off and play them in a certain way for it to be effective for the narrative. Even then, though, it’s pretty unlikely.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    crabbie
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    #1204361128

    You have things like Ben Affleck and Corey Hawkins being predicted in supporting because the Supporting Actor field is extremely barren this year. Pacino and Leto probably won’t both make it in together. Cooper’s role in Soggy Bottom was alluded to be very small. Dafoe in Nightmare Alley is also overshadowed by Richard Jenkins. No one will be making it in for Canterbury Glass. Adrien Brody won’t get in for Blonde when it will be the Ana De Armas showcase. The French Dispatch players are also no1curr.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204361254

    Heads up to everyone predicting The Humans, it’s gonna be 2022.

    Good to know.

    You have things like Ben Affleck and Corey Hawkins being predicted in supporting because the Supporting Actor field is extremely barren this year. Pacino and Leto probably won’t both make it in together. Cooper’s role in Soggy Bottom was alluded to be very small. Dafoe in Nightmare Alley is also overshadowed by Richard Jenkins. No one will be making it in for Canterbury Glass. Adrien Brody won’t get in for Blonde when it will be the Ana De Armas showcase. The French Dispatch players are also no1curr.

    Affleck and Hawkins still don’t have a chance in hell though. I’d bet on people like Mark Rylance, Oscar Isaac, David Alvarez, Ciaran Hinds, Matt Smith, and Rami Malek easily before any of them. Affleck isn’t even going to be the main supporting push from his film if Driver is pushed in supporting (which seems very likely), and Hawkins wouldn’t even be the main push from his film over Gleeson (and neither are happening because neither has the role).

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    crabbie
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    #1204361284

    Affleck and Hawkins still don’t have a chance in hell though.

    Yeah I agree with you. Just sharing the rationale behind those picks. I currently have: Jenkins (Nightmare Alley), Plemons, Rylance, Alvarez, and Hinds.

    Overall quite a weak year for Supporting Actor I can easily see Jenkins or Plemons just sweep the entire season although I heard Plemons role isn’t as juicy as Kodi Smit.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    24fanatic
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    #1204361287

    Can we please add Troy Kotsur in Supporting Actor for CODA?

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204361315

    You have things like Ben Affleck and Corey Hawkins being predicted in supporting because the Supporting Actor field is extremely barren this year. Pacino and Leto probably won’t both make it in together. Cooper’s role in Soggy Bottom was alluded to be very small. Dafoe in Nightmare Alley is also overshadowed by Richard Jenkins. No one will be making it in for Canterbury Glass. Adrien Brody won’t get in for Blonde when it will be the Ana De Armas showcase. The French Dispatch players are also no1curr.

    Idk – to be fair to Bradley Cooper, Paul Thomas Anderson has made it work with smaller parts. And I don’t know how much truth there is to that report of him only being on set for a few weeks. However, I will say that, similarly, Tom Cruise was only on the set of Magnolia for a few weeks and he turned out the greatest performance of his career. Besides, even if he isn’t in it, Benny Safdie’s also in it and a majority of PTA films have recieved an acting nomination (the exceptions being Inherent Vice and Punch-Drunk Love (not sure if we can count Hard Eight, due to it’s limited released in the same year as Boogie Nights)).

    Also, we have to remember that in the last few years it’s become common for films to recieve multiple nominations in one of the supporting categories. For instance, Three Billboards has Harrelson and Rockwell; The Favourite has Stone and Weisz; Irishman has Pacino and Pesci; and, lastly, Judas And The Black Messiah has Kaluuya and Stanfield. Now, Stanfield was frauded into supporting and you could make an argument that the same applies for Stone and Rockwell. However, that’s an apparent trend, especially given this is the same Academy that hadn’t nominated two people from the same film in one category for years prior. My bet is that out of all current supporting potentials… Pacino and Leto seem the most likely bets for double-Supporting nominations, followed by Blanchett and Mara for Nightmare Alley (although “apparently” Blanchett is in Lead, which I don’t think I buy). However, it’s eminently possible that only one of Pacino and Leto get in, but alongside Adam Driver in a similar fraud to Stanfield’s.

    It’s early to say, really. But I think mine and some other’s general point is the strangeness of some of these predictions… Like is A Hero, Mass or Last Night In Soho anywhere near as likely as nominations for Being The Ricardos or Canterbury Glass. Although what might be worse in Original Screenplay is the artsy-fartsy Annette in 9th place and Don’t Worry Darling in 10th, in spite of it’s confirmation of release in 2022 rather than 2021. And, frankly, anyone who genuinely believes, at this point in the Awards race, that Jane Campion is more likely to win an Oscar than Joel Coen in Adapted Screenplay is kidding themselves, even if it is a Shakespeare adaptation. (And yes, I know I’ve complained of the Campion bias on here before, but… eh… even if it is a hit, I don’t buy her beating Joel Coen for screenplay of all things.)  Blonde’s positioning in fourth place for Adapted Screenplay is almost certainly worse, though. If Blonde gets nominated in any above-the-line category (outside of actress and, possibly, Supporting Actress), it will be for Director. Frankly, Andrew Dominik is more of a visual director than a dialogue one. Also, I’m not buying Plemons or Hawkins yet – their roles are thankless in the grand scheme of their films, so, unless their films are the Top 2 for Best Picture, I doubt they’re getting in ahead of John David Washington for Canterbury Glass, even if it turns out to be more Joy than American Hustle. Ann Dowd in 1st Place for Mass is, also, kind of weird, given that we’re seemingly snubbing it in Supporting Actor… And I’m pretty certain CODA is being exaggerated a little here. It’s got bad ratings and it’s not a Pandemic year where blockbusters don’t come out; CODA probably would deserve a Best Picture nom, but I’m doubtful it gets in at the Oscars. Predictions in Best Actor are suprisingly good, even if I sense a slight Driver and Phoenix bias – I’m not making a fuss though because they stand a decent chance of getting in, even if I do rate their chances as similar to Bale’s and DiCaprio’s.

    (Also, don’t know if this is a good tip, but A Journal For Jordan is almost 100% gonna be Sony’s only push this Awards season, so expect them to push Michael B. Jordan hard, as well as the film (it will help if Denzel has hype for Tragedy of Macbeth, because he’s directing this)).

     

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    forwardswill
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    #1204361326

    Boy did this reveal that I have no idea where the season is going this year. My only gut feeling at this point (and I’m stating it so I can look back at how stupid I was): tick tick boom is this year’s Best Picture winner.

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204361357

    Boy did this reveal that I have no idea where the season is going this year. My only gut feeling at this point (and I’m stating it so I can look back at how stupid I was): tick tick boom is this year’s Best Picture winner.

    To be fair, given Lin-Manuel Miranda, this could happen. I’m not brave enough to predict it myself, but I think it could be the Marriage Story/Chicago 7 Netflix slot this year, instead Power Of The Dog.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204361384

    tick tick boom is this year’s Best Picture winner.

    Here for the Bradley Whitford becoming the latest “Recent Emmy winner to Oscar supporting winner”

    Oscars FYC:

    "CODA" – in all categories

    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Sup. Actor (Richard E. Grant), Sup. Actress (Sarah Lancashire) and Original Song (“This Was Me”)

    "King Richard" – Original Song (“Be Alive”)

    "Summer of Soul" – Picture, Film Editing and Documentary Feature

    “The Green Knight” – in all categories

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    LA26
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    #1204361399

    Yeah I agree with you. Just sharing the rationale behind those picks. I currently have: Jenkins (Nightmare Alley), Plemons, Rylance, Alvarez, and Hinds. Overall quite a weak year for Supporting Actor I can easily see Jenkins or Plemons just sweep the entire season although I heard Plemons role isn’t as juicy as Kodi Smit.

    Has Driver been added in SA for The Last Duel yet? I checked earlier today, and he wasn’t listed. If the studio decides to push for him, he’s definitely Supporting.

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    #1204361403
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    wolfali
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    #1204361641

    Boy did this reveal that I have no idea where the season is going this year. My only gut feeling at this point (and I’m stating it so I can look back at how stupid I was): tick tick boom is this year’s Best Picture winner.

    Bold prediction! I don’t actually have it in any categories at the moment (Garfield is sort of on the edge of my actor predictions) but from the premise it seems like it can stand out from the other musicals in contention this year and as another user said Lin-Manuel’s name alone could give it an advantage.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Manav
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    #1204361652

    House of Gucci will be a massive player for BTL categories: makeup, costume, production design, editing,score. I don’t know how the Academy is going to resist Gaga shouting and screaming in an Italian Accent.

    Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley will definitely have to go supporting. I just saw the old Movie a few days back and Blanchett’s character is in screen for a small time. Rooney Mara will have larger role. (Unless they expand Blanchett’s role)

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    wolfali
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    #1204361690

    Just a reminder that these two were at the top of the predictions centre in their categories this time last season.

    Anything can happen over the coming months.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    crabbie
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    #1204361701

    Just a reminder that these two were at the top of the predictions centre in their categories this time last season. Anything can happen over the coming months.

    Hoping the Canterbury Glass cast is this year’s Ammonite duo.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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