Oscars 2022 Predictions: Crafts Categories (Part 1)

[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4729 View Predictions]

#1204865625

King Richard winning with only editing as its tech nomination feels odd. The Departed and Crash did it, but they at least has a Director nomination and won Best Picture. Editing may as well come with Dune’s tech wave sweep. But this season has been too weird, so I wouldn’t be surprised if King Richard wins.

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1204865637

The ASC win for Greig Fraser (DUNE) was a huge boost, but if we look at ASC winners list and the Critics’ Choice we can see critics’ choice awards have a better record of “predicting” the Best Cinematography winner at the Oscars. CC are also better than BAFTA in this race:

2009 – Avatar (Oscar, CC) / The White Ribbon (ASC) / The Hurt Locker (BAFTA)
2010 – Inception (Oscar, CC, ASC) / True Grit (BAFTA)
2011 – Hugo (Oscar, CC) / The Tree of Life & War Horse (ASC) / The Artist (BAFTA)
2012 – Life of Pi (Oscar, CC, BAFTA) / Skyfall (ASC)
2013 – Gravity (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2014 – Birdman (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2015 – The Revenant (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2016 – La La Land (Oscar, CC, BAFTA) / Lion (ASC)
2017 – Blade Runner 2049 (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2018 – Roma (Oscar, CC, BAFTA) / Cold War (ASC)
2019 – 1917 (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2020 – Mank (Oscar, ASC) / Nomadland (CC, BAFTA)
2021 – The Power of the Dog (CC) / Dune (ASC, BAFTA)

So, it seems the only time CC and ASC went in different directions with ASC winning was last year with Mank vs. Nomadland. In every other situation the CC winner was the Oscar winner.

Edgar Pereira
.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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[jjjmoss Joined: Jun 2nd, 2016 Topics: 2 Posts: 2215 View Predictions]

#1204865817

Edgar Pereira wrote:

2009 – Avatar (Oscar, CC) / The White Ribbon (ASC) / The Hurt Locker (BAFTA)

2011 – Hugo (Oscar, CC) / The Tree of Life & War Horse (ASC) / The Artist (BAFTA)

2012 – Life of Pi (Oscar, CC, BAFTA) / Skyfall (ASC)

2016 – La La Land (Oscar, CC, BAFTA) / Lion (ASC)

2018 – Roma (Oscar, CC, BAFTA) / Cold War (ASC)  

Oscar vs. ASC – Cold War with 1 tech nom lost to Roma with 4 tech noms.

Lion with 2 tech noms lost to LLL with 9 tech noms.

Skyfall with 5 tech noms lost to Pi with 8 tech noms.

1/5 vs. 8

1 vs. 7

So when they split it’s in favor of the tech-ier movie. The tech-iest movie is Dune. The Bafta winner is Dune. The ASC winner is Dune.

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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1204865890

jjjmoss wrote:

Oscar vs. ASC – Cold War with 1 tech nom lost to Roma with 4 tech noms.

Lion with 2 tech noms lost to LLL with 9 tech noms.

Skyfall with 5 tech noms lost to Pi with 8 tech noms.

1/5 vs. 8

1 vs. 7

So when they split it’s in favor of the tech-ier movie. The tech-iest movie is Dune. The Bafta winner is Dune. The ASC winner is Dune.

It is a valid point to… but I believe TPOTD got enough tech noms in order to hold a “viable” Best Cinematography Oscar win, plus DUNE missed that Best Director win…! Don’t get me wrong: I am perfectly okay with a win for both, I am just trying to predict

Edgar Pereira
.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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[Bonehead Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1693 View Predictions]

#1204865952

I’m gonna stick with predicting the first female cinematography winner ever.

If I go down with that ship, then darn.

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[David Fernández Sellés Joined: Sep 10th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 43 View Predictions]

#1204868666

Best Song  : Dos Oruguitas – Encanto – Lin Manuel Miranda

Best Soundtrack:   Don’t  look up -Nicholas  Britell

Best Cinematography :  West Side Story  – Janusz Kaminsky

Best Production Design  :  Dune – Patrice Vermette. Zsuzsanna Sipos

Best Editing  : King Richard  -Pamela Martin

Best Costume Design  : Dune- Jacqueline West y Robert Morgan

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: House of Gucci- Frederic Aspiras, Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano and Sarah Nicole Tanno

Best Sound: Dune – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, Ron Bartlett

Best Special Effects: Dune – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, y Gerd Nefzer

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[roger88 Joined: Sep 20th, 2012 Topics: 0 Posts: 448 View Predictions]

#1204869440

Edgar Pereira wrote:

The ASC win for Greig Fraser (DUNE) was a huge boost, but if we look at ASC winners list and the Critics’ Choice we can see critics’ choice awards have a better record of “predicting” the Best Cinematography winner at the Oscars. CC are also better than BAFTA in this race:

2009 – Avatar (Oscar, CC) / The White Ribbon (ASC) / The Hurt Locker (BAFTA)
2010 – Inception (Oscar, CC, ASC) / True Grit (BAFTA)
2011 – Hugo (Oscar, CC) / The Tree of Life & War Horse (ASC) / The Artist (BAFTA)
2012 – Life of Pi (Oscar, CC, BAFTA) / Skyfall (ASC)
2013 – Gravity (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2014 – Birdman (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2015 – The Revenant (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2016 – La La Land (Oscar, CC, BAFTA) / Lion (ASC)
2017 – Blade Runner 2049 (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2018 – Roma (Oscar, CC, BAFTA) / Cold War (ASC)
2019 – 1917 (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2020 – Mank (Oscar, ASC) / Nomadland (CC, BAFTA)
2021 – The Power of the Dog (CC) / Dune (ASC, BAFTA)

So, it seems the only time CC and ASC went in different directions with ASC winning was last year with Mank vs. Nomadland. In every other situation the CC winner was the Oscar winner.

Funny you discount the main element in consideration – BAFTA. Dune not only won ASC but also BAFTA (The group which has the best correlation of voters between them and AMPAS). With Dune winning BAFTA changes a lot this equation and even your examples bring that. Since Avatar in 2009, only last year Cinematography CC winner has gained the Oscar without the BAFTA win. Ditto the ASC winner since Children of Men in 2006.

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[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4729 View Predictions]

#1204870599

Decided to switch back to King Richard for editing. Keep flip-flopping between it and Dune. King Richard lacks the sound nomination, but I can’t see Dune winning 6 Oscars being the first half of the film. Not only that, but its won 0 precursors. I’m aware Gravity is a precedent — though that film was unbelievably strong to win 7 Oscars, one of them being Best Director which is a nomination Dune crucially lacks.

Probably the most compelling reason for me to switch to King Richard was due to the fact that not many Best Picture films are winning 2 Oscars. Most recently, AMPAS has shown an affinity in spreading the wealth between its Best Picture nominees. Last year 5 Best Picture nominees won at least 2 Oscars.  I can see voters throwing King Richard another bone in Best Editing similar to how voters took a tech win away from 1917 and gave it to Once Upon A Time in Hollywood. It’s true that King Richard missed the Best Editing longlist at BAFTA, but similar to CODA — it feels like King Richard has grown exponentially in momentum after SAG (and ACE).

I think Dune could possibly be vulnerable in Production Design to Nightmare Alley, but lone production design winners are very rare. Mank decided to pick up Cinematography last year with Production Design. And the year prior, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood had the Supporting Actor and Production Design package.

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

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[Derrick Eoghan Oisín O'Callaghan Joined: Dec 5th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 972 View Predictions]

#1204870770

I also think King Richard will win Film Editing with it beating Dune at ACE Eddie and Dune losing BAFTA to No Time To Die and CC to West Side Story and these two films are NOT nominated here at the Oscars.  tick tick….boom! won Comedy but Comedy/Musicals rarely win Oscars for Film Editing.  I still think Be Alive could upset for Original Song.

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[JV Joined: Dec 31st, 2019 Topics: 9 Posts: 5256 View Predictions]

#1204871055

In the 2012 Editing category we had
The Artist: Best Picture frontrunner with a lot of montages and showy editing, but no Sound noms.

Hugo: Juggernaut tech sweeper that won Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, but lost Critics Choice, BAFTA and ACE. Some complains about the pace being slow and being too long.

The Descendants: ACE winner

Moneyball: Aaron Sorkin/Bennett Miller movie

And the winner was Critics Choice winner and non BP nominee The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Actively considering predicting Tick, Tick… Boom! considering how showy and creative the editing is even if missed Best Picture. I could see any of Dune, King Richard, Don’t Look Up, TTB and The Power of the Dog winning. The winner is probably between Dune and King Richard, but I’m more interested in predicting shockers and upsets.

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[Nameizmann Joined: Jan 16th, 2020 Topics: 33 Posts: 671 View Predictions]

#1204871113

JV wrote:

In the 2012 Editing category we had The Artist: Best Picture frontrunner with a lot of montages and showy editing, but no Sound noms. Hugo: Juggernaut tech sweeper that won Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, but lost Critics Choice, BAFTA and ACE. Some complains about the pace being slow and being too long. The Descendants: ACE winner Moneyball: Aaron Sorkin/Bennett Miller movie And the winner was Critics Choice winner and non BP nominee The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo Actively considering predicting Tick, Tick… Boom! considering how showy and creative the editing is even if missed Best Picture. I could see any of Dune, King Richard, Don’t Look Up, TTB and The Power of the Dog winning. The winner is probably between Dune and King Richard, but I’m more interested in predicting shockers and upsets.

likely the TGWTDT win was an afterglow win from the Social Network win the year prior

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1204871172

JV wrote:

Actively considering predicting Tick, Tick… Boom! considering how showy and creative the editing is even if missed Best Picture. I could see any of Dune, King Richard, Don’t Look Up, TTB and The Power of the Dog winning. The winner is probably between Dune and King Richard, but I’m more interested in predicting shockers and upsets.

Ultimately because I’m sticking with Cruz in Actress, I feel more pressured to play conservative on some other guesses. I’m a little tempted by TTB though.

It’s hard to weigh how much it matters that KR didn’t make the BAFTA longlist for Editing while TTB did for both Editing and Sound. TTB was shortlisted for sound with AMPAS too, and it probably would’ve been nominated if sound still had two categories. But the BP miss holds me back from going for it.

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[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4729 View Predictions]

#1204871828

Tick Tick Boom has creative and relevant editing in adjacent to the film’s screenplay, but so did Baby Driver and it lost to Dunkirk with BAFTA. Best Editing usually goes to strong Best Picture nominees (if there is a path), so I’m leaning towards Dune or King Richard.

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

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[JV Joined: Dec 31st, 2019 Topics: 9 Posts: 5256 View Predictions]

#1204871837

crabbie wrote:

Tick Tick Boom has creative and relevant editing in adjacent to the film’s screenplay, but so did Baby Driver and it lost to Dunkirk with BAFTA. Best Editing usually goes to strong Best Picture nominees (if there is a path), so I’m leaning towards Dune or King Richard.

The comparison doesn’t hold up.

Dunkirk was strong. Won ACE, CC and it was a war film with very showy editing (it didn’t win by default, the movie dealt with different timelines in the movie).

Baby Driver didn’t have an acting nomination and it lacked the prestige of a musical directed by Lin Manuel Miranda, starring Andrew Garfield
Tick, Tick… Boom! won ACE – Comedy, which Baby Driver lost to I Tonya. Tick, Tick… Boom! got a PGA nomination.

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[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4729 View Predictions]

#1204871852

JV wrote:

The comparison doesn’t hold up. Dunkirk was strong. Won ACE, CC and it was a war film with very showy editing (it didn’t win by default, the movie dealt with different timelines in the movie). Baby Driver didn’t have an acting nomination and it lacked the prestige of a musical directed by Lin Manuel Miranda, starring Andrew Garfield Tick, Tick… Boom! won ACE – Comedy, which Baby Driver lost to I Tonya. Tick, Tick… Boom! got a PGA nomination.

Tick Tick Boom faces issues Baby Driver didn’t face. Baby Driver was nominated in both sound categories while Tick Tick Boom wasn’t. In any case, I wasn’t trying to make an equal comparison between Tick Tick Boom and Baby Driver. More so — pointing how creative elaborate editing may be prone to lose to Best Picture nominees. For Tick Tick Boom to win, it would require strong passion for the general membership to vote for it in Editing and I don’t really see that considering how its Best Picture miss was unexpected and it hasn’t been surging in the past month especially when LMM lost at DGA. I’m certainly not ruling Tick Tick Boom out and I can understand why you would predict it in editing considering how boring Sundays ceremony will be if there are little to no upsets.

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

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