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This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.The ballots going for Nightmare Alley in Production Design is really compelling. I’m going to stick with Dune though because lone production design winners are rare and Nightmare Alley is 10th in Picture. I still have King Richard winning editing. but the ballots indicate a scattered race. The Power of the Dog is tied with Dune in cinematography on the ballots. And I don’t think TPOTD upsetting is out of the realm of possibility. The detractors of TPOTD praise the film’s shot composition and visuals still. Dune has ASC+ BAFTA which is undoubtedly strong. There’s still a race though, I believe.
ReplyCopy URLMichelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossThe ballots going for Nightmare Alley in Production Design is really compelling. I’m going to stick with Dune though because lone production design winners are rare and Nightmare Alley is 10th in Picture. I still have King Richard winning editing. but the ballots indicate a scattered race. The Power of the Dog is tied with Dune in cinematography on the ballots. And I don’t think TPOTD upsetting is out of the realm of possibility. The detractors of TPOTD praise the film’s shot composition and visuals still. Dune has ASC+ BAFTA which is undoubtedly strong. There’s still a race though, I believe.
If it fails to win Pic/Adapted Screenplay. TPOTD has to win something apart from Campion in Director. It compares to Lincoln and Mank in a sense that those two movies were the nomination leaders and only expected to win one, but won a second in a huge surprise. If Power does the same the Cinematography is a logical place. I feel very uneasy about going against Dune, which checks every box when it comes to the Cinematography. But it does help that since it overperformed so heavily below the line especially, you can make an argument that voters see Power as a tech heavy movie too. And as much shit the Critic’s Choice gets, they do get weird stuff right sometimes.
ReplyCopy URLIf it fails to win Pic/Adapted Screenplay. TPOTD has to win something apart from Campion in Director. It compares to Lincoln and Mank in a sense that those two movies were the nomination leaders and only expected to win one, but won a second in a huge surprise. If Power does the same the Cinematography is a logical place. I feel very uneasy about going against Dune, which checks every box when it comes to the Cinematography. But it does help that since it overperformed so heavily below the line especially, you can make an argument that voters see Power as a tech heavy movie too. And as much shit the Critic’s Choice gets, they do get weird stuff right sometimes.
When was the last time the sole nomination leader went home empty handed? TPOTD’s biggest problem is that at the guilds, it only won in its directing category and at BAFTA it only won Director and Picture. So the industry has shown apathy towards the film outside of directing.
However, it would be foolish to rule out Wegner for cinematography. Dune still faces the problem of a missing director nomination, which might cap its maximum award haul count. TPOTD can certainly pull one below the line tech win based on a strong overperformance at the Oscars. It’s difficult to imagine no film that the director branch nominated is winning 2 or more Oscars.
ReplyCopy URLMichelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossWhen was the last time the sole nomination leader went home empty handed? TPOTD’s biggest problem is that at the guilds, it only won in its directing category and at BAFTA it only won Director and Picture. So the industry has shown apathy towards the film outside of directing. However, it would be foolish to rule out Wegner for cinematography. Dune still faces the problem of a missing director nomination, which might cap its maximum award haul count. TPOTD can certainly pull one below the line tech win based on a strong overperformance at the Oscars. It’s difficult to imagine no film that the director branch nominated is winning 2 or more Oscars.
You have to go back to at least like the 1950s to find a nomination leader that won less than 2 Oscars and a movie that went 1/12.
ReplyCopy URLWhen was the last time the sole nomination leader went home empty handed?
You have to go back to at least like the 1950s to find a nomination leader that won less than 2 Oscars and a movie that went 1/12.
Sole nomination leader The Love Parade went 0/6 at the 1929-30 awards. I believe that’s the only example of that scenario.
And you only have to go back to the 1960s to find both a sole nom leader than won only a single Oscar, and the most recent instance of a 1/12 film.
Five sole nominations leaders have lost all but one of their noms:
Mutiny on the Bounty (1935) [1/8] – won BP
The Bells of St. Mary’s (1945) [1/8] – won sound recording
Johnny Belinda (1948) [1/12] – won Best Actress
Giant (1956) [1/10] – won BD
Anne of the Thousand Days (1969) [1/10] – won costume designThere have been two 1/12 films in Oscar history:
Johnny Belinda (1948) [1/12] – won Best Actress
Becket (1964) [1/12] – won adapted screenplay
*nom leader that year was Mary Poppins [5/13], BP winner was My Fair Lady [8/12]ReplyCopy URLFYC
Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
Best Adapted Screenplay: David KajganichWhile kbc is doing an amazing job here digging up the historical numbers, I’d like to add one that is important.
Right now we collectively have Dune predicted to win 6 tech Oscars. If we exclude sound editing (rip), there is ONE film in all of history that has won that many crafts categories with nothing above the line: Star Wars. The movie that literally changed everything (not a fan of the influence, but sky is blue). Fury Road has 5, Raiders of the Lost Ark and Hugo have 4. That’s it.
So unless you think Dune shook the world and/or is a breath away from winning Best Pic a la Star Wars ’77… you should be deviating from the collective wisdom at least once or twice.
By my calculations, Sound and Effects are set in granite. It’s ahead of Nightmare Alley a good ways in Production Design. In Cinematography, Scoring, and Editing, it’s closest competition is Power of the Dog. Cinematography is likely to go with Design. Zimmer seems to be having a resurgence. That leaves editing the most up in the air. Look either to Dog taking this to go with Best Pic or for Tick Tick Boom to come out on top in a total curveball, because split races lie this are where curveballs happen.
ReplyCopy URLHoping for a miracle: West Side Story winning Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design and Sound. But I doubt it. I think doggy Dog will win the first, Dune for PD and Sound, and Cruella for CD… Oh well – and WSS really ought to be winning for Film Editing and Makeup & Hairstyling too… The guilds really ticked me off this year! (;
ReplyCopy URLHoping for a miracle: West Side Story winning Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design and Sound. But I doubt it. I think doggy Dog will win the first, Dune for PD and Sound, and Cruella for CD… Oh well – and WSS really ought to be winning for Film Editing and Makeup & Hairstyling too… The guilds really ticked me off this year! (;
Erm, respectfully no. There’s nothing noteworthy about its Makeup or Hairstyling.
ReplyCopy URLWSS for Makeup & Hairstyling???????? Seriously???????
Oh brother!!! YES – the hairstyles for all of the different characters, male and female, added immensely to the movie, and the makeup was great too – not just smudges on faces as one idiot said. Think about it: The Eyes of Tammy Faye transformed ONE character, Dune’s makeup and hairstyling is imo grotesque. House of Gucci is good but not Oscar-worthy. It’s all in the way one looks at the work and WSS has brilliant makeup and hairstyling that differentiates the various large cast of characters (in case in point: the dance at the gym!).
ReplyCopy URLOh brother!!! YES – the hairstyles for all of the different characters, male and female, added immensely to the movie, and the makeup was great too – not just smudges on faces as one idiot said. Think about it: The Eyes of Tammy Faye transformed ONE character, Dune’s makeup and hairstyling is imo grotesque. House of Gucci is good but not Oscar-worthy. It’s all in the way one looks at the work and WSS has brilliant makeup and hairstyling that differentiates the various large cast of characters (in case in point: the dance at the gym!).
I would DEFINITELY vote Tammy Faye and Dune over WSS
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