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Overestimating and Underestimating

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  • Bee
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    #1201956488

    Which films and/or actors are we are having way too much confidence in and the ones we are not realizing will sneak up? I think Loving is being very overestimated. It has the critics but I don’t see the Academy having much passion with it.

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    zkrons
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    #1201956493

    I think you are completely right about Loving. In addition, I think people are overestimating Michelle Williams for MBTS. It’s not a major role and she didn’t earn a Independent Spirit nom. Then again, Mahershala Ali’s role in Moonlight is also very short…Also, I am not sure the Academy will embrace 20th Century Woman in regards to Bening and Gerwig as people think it will. Though Bening is well-known and well-respected, this role is a little strange. Also, I just don’t see Gerwig breaking through.

    In regards to underestimating…I think Andrew Garfield will be nominated for Silence. It’s going to happen. In addition, Michael Shannon looks like he is too strong this year with Midnight Special, Loving, AND Nocturnal Animals to not get a nomination. I think it’ll be for the latter. Hidden Figures has the diversity factor the Academy has been criticized for not recognizing, so I think it has strong chances in many categories, including Actress & Supporting Actress (I think Spencer is the better-known, but Monae also has the buzz from Moonlight, so I don’t know which is more likely) And Sing for Best Animated Feature.

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    AwardsConnect
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    #1201956514

    Underestimating: Michael Keaton, Adam Driver, Octavia Spencer, Zootopia in Original Screenplay
    Overestimating: Lion, Isabelle Huppert

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    JB
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    #1201956520

    Underestimating: Lion, Florence Foster Jenkins, Octavia Spencer, Emily Blunt, Molly Shannon, Ben Foster
    Overestimating: Jackie, Isabelle Huppert, Adam Driver

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1201956528

    Underestimating: Molly Shannon, Lion, Jackie in categories besides best actress, Hidden figures in multiple categories

    Overestimating: Michelle Williams, Fences, Jeff Bridges

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    Anonymous
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    #1201956529

    The Jungle Book is totally being underestimated!!

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    Roney Moore
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    #1201956530

    We’re talking about a Larrain film, a man who’s not afraid to show his unconventional vision and wisdom and unlike many of his peers, specifically avoids dramatic confrontations in his projects that would allow it to be more mainstream. The movie is more in line with Carol and Foxcatcher in terms of how cinematic, unsentimental, personal and moody it is. So I can see it being the inspiring choice the directors branch decide to put it in this year but even it’s BP nom isn’t a sure thing. The one bad thing about preferential ballot is that it favors movies that have emotional impact on people like EL&IC over more daring/cynical ones.

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    Bee
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    #1201956536

    I think the drive for Jackie that posters have is the fact that Hillary Clinton had a horrible loss at the election. That voters will vote for it out of trying to be progressive and since it is about one of the most famous women in American history, unlike Carol and Foxcatcher, it has an advantage. Also helps that Natalie Portman is the frontrunner.

     

    Hidden Figures is the biggest question mark for me. I have no idea how that’s going play out.

     

    I also feel like Florence is being somewhat underestimated because I see a lot of Old voters falling in love with it.

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    AMG
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    #1201956540

    Over-estimated: Florence Foster Jenkins, Loving

    Under-estimated: Arrival, Hell of High Water, Lucas Hedges (MbtS)

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    clay bryce
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    #1201956580

    Over-estimated: Hidden Figures, Jackie, Loving, Manchester by the Sea

    Under-estimated: Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Elle

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    leothescorpio
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    #1201956591

    Overestimated: Fences, Naomie Harris, Michael Shannon
    Underestimated: Hidden Figures, Kevin Costner, Andre Holland & Molly Shannon

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    Justmimusicmon
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    #1201956633

    I also feel like Florence is being somewhat underestimated because I see a lot of Old voters falling in love with it

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    Eddy Q
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    #1201956643

    Underestimated:
    Andrew Garfield & Adam Driver in Silence
    Meryl Streep (at one’s peril)
    Pablo Larraín

    Overestimated:
    Difficult to say at this point, but Mahershala Ali doesn’t seem like a frontrunner that will stick. By most accounts Naomie Harris has the showier role in Moonlight, but she’s up against inevitable juggernaut Viola Davis of course. Predictions for Denzel Washington for directing seem off the mark to me.

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    AviChristiaans
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    #1201956650

    Grossly Under-estimated:
    Manchester By The Sea possible Best Picture upset
    Hell or High Water
    Jackie

    Over-estimated:
    Moonlight
    La La Land

    I have mentioned it before, but I still have a hard time believing Oscar voters are gonna give La La Land 8-10 Oscars, as some people are suggesting.

    Look at the film, and look at the voters and how they have voted in the past. the serious, heavy and important films they lean towards.

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    sofan
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    #1201956656

    Overestimated: Fences, Loving, La  La Land and Moonlight

    Underestimated: Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic.

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