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January 10, 2018 at 2:58 am #1202462910This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 10, 2018 at 3:02 am #1202462912This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 10, 2018 at 3:11 am #1202462926This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 10, 2018 at 3:16 am #1202462931
Only 3 individuals have received BAFTA nominations only and went on to receive an Oscar nomination.
Alan Alda – The Aviator (2004)
Javier Bardem – Biutiful (2010)
Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011)
ReplyCopy URLJanuary 10, 2018 at 3:26 am #1202462952Keep in mind, for the last 6 consecutive years we have had an individual get an Oscar nomination without being nominated for SAG/Golden Globe/BAFTA.
Who will it be this year?
My money is on:
– Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
ReplyCopy URL
– Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
– Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
– Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
– Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)January 10, 2018 at 3:30 am #1202462961Wikipedia is my awards encyclopedia (and IMDb).
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (got Critics’ Choice)
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (got Critics’ Choice)
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Javier Bardem, BiutifulI am thinking that Kristin Scott Thomas is no more of a contender than Julie Walters in Brooklyn, i.e. in the top ten, but only in the top five when British bias is a thing. The material is just not there in this case.
ReplyCopy URLJanuary 10, 2018 at 3:31 am #1202462966Keep in mind, for the last 6 consecutive years we have had an individual get an Oscar nomination without being nominated for SAG/Golden Globe/BAFTA.
Who will it be this year?
My money is on:
– Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
– Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
– Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
– Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
– Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)Haddish and/or Stuhlbarg.
ReplyCopy URLJanuary 10, 2018 at 3:33 am #1202462968This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 10, 2018 at 3:34 am #1202462970I like Sebastian Stan and Idris Elba because I need to fill my fifth supporting actor slot, but no way am I predicting Vicky Krieps, Brooklynn Prince or Annette Bening to bump one of the consensus five or Jessica Chastain from lead actress. Michael Stuhlbarg is the simple choice.
ReplyCopy URLJanuary 10, 2018 at 3:39 am #1202462973Keep in mind, for the last 6 consecutive years we have had an individual get an Oscar nomination without being nominated for SAG/Golden Globe/BAFTA.
Who will it be this year?
My money is on:
– Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
– Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
– Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
– Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
– Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)Stuhlbarg seems like the more likely candidate than Stan, Shannon, or Elba.
There’s always an off chance of Haddish giving Blige / Chau the boot as well.
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This reply was modified 3 years, 1 month ago by
TheRedBoy.
January 10, 2018 at 5:56 am #1202463044^I have a feeling that Stuhlberg will get in while Hammer will get snubbed, sort of like the Shannon/Johnson scenario last year.
ReplyCopy URLJanuary 10, 2018 at 7:09 am #1202463124I have a feeling that Stuhlberg will get in while Hammer will get snubbed, sort of like the Shannon/Johnson scenario last year.
I can see this happening as well.
ReplyCopy URLhttps://thecinemike.wordpress.com/
Twitter: @TheCineMikeJanuary 10, 2018 at 7:13 am #1202463135A stat that perhaps bodes well for Bening – rarely in awards history has a picture garnered both Lead Actor/Actress BAFTA noms and seen both nominees ignored at the Oscars. The last time it happened was nearly 20 years ago, with Caine and Horrocks in Little Voice. Before that, Allen and Keaton in Manhattan.
For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!
ReplyCopy URLJanuary 10, 2018 at 9:29 am #1202463238I think the probability is kinda like:
1. Stuhlbarg (I’m actually predicting him over Harrelson)
2. Gyllenhaal
3. Shannonp.s.: Alan Alda was nominated at SAG.
ReplyCopy URLJanuary 10, 2018 at 10:23 am #1202463297Keep in mind, for the last 6 consecutive years we have had an individual get an Oscar nomination without being nominated for SAG/Golden Globe/BAFTA.
Who will it be this year?
My money is on:
– Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
– Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
– Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
– Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
– Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)If you look at the qualities of Oscar nominees who got in without SAG, Globe or BAFTA nominations, they’re at least two of three things:
1. a veteran who’s been around a long time.
2. a former nominee
3. in a film that is a Best Picture or acting front-runner.With that in mind, I will probably say the possible suspects are:
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
Tracey Letts or Lucas Hedges (Lady Bird)
Catherine Keener (Get Out)
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)Relative newcomers like Krieps and Prince are unlikely to get in without getting a nomination in at least one of the big precursors. That’s unheard of in the modern day awards cycle.
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This reply was modified 3 years, 1 month ago by
Irvin Malcolm Contreras.
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