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Anonymous
I’m a bit curious about performances in the past that missed SAG and the Globes (and Critics Choice I guess, but they aren’t relevant), but got nominated at BAFTA and the Oscars. I am not including critic circles and smaller organizations.
Reply@thedemonhog Riley Chow, our resident awards encyclopedia, you have been summoned!
ReplyCopy URLNote to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!
Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.
Keep in mind, for the last 6 consecutive years we have had an individual get an Oscar nomination without being nominated for SAG/Golden Globe/BAFTA.
Who will it be this year?
My money is on:
– Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
ReplyCopy URL
– Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
– Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
– Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
– Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)Wikipedia is my awards encyclopedia (and IMDb).
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (got Critics’ Choice)
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (got Critics’ Choice)
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Javier Bardem, BiutifulI am thinking that Kristin Scott Thomas is no more of a contender than Julie Walters in Brooklyn, i.e. in the top ten, but only in the top five when British bias is a thing. The material is just not there in this case.
ReplyCopy URL"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."
Keep in mind, for the last 6 consecutive years we have had an individual get an Oscar nomination without being nominated for SAG/Golden Globe/BAFTA.
Who will it be this year?
My money is on:
– Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
– Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
– Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
– Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
– Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)Haddish and/or Stuhlbarg.
ReplyCopy URLKeep in mind, for the last 6 consecutive years we have had an individual get an Oscar nomination without being nominated for SAG/Golden Globe/BAFTA.
Who will it be this year?
My money is on:
– Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
– Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
– Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
– Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
– Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)I would LOVE THIS to happen so bad. I can totally see Sebastian Stan replacing Harrelson or even Jenkins.
TSOW has been wildly unpredictable as to what supporting players get nommed and snubbed, with Jenkins but not Spencer hitting SAG and Spencer but not Jenkins hitting Bafta. Shannon’s character has been criticized by some people as being too simplistically creepy and evil.
As for Idris Elba, they owe him one so bad for Beasts of No Nation it isn’t even funny.
Sebastian Stan gets in only if I, Tonya over-performs like crazy, getting into Directing, Costume Design, maybe even Sound Mixing. He would be a more deserving Oscar nominee than Allison Janney, but both were still great.
ReplyCopy URLNote to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!
Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.
I like Sebastian Stan and Idris Elba because I need to fill my fifth supporting actor slot, but no way am I predicting Vicky Krieps, Brooklynn Prince or Annette Bening to bump one of the consensus five or Jessica Chastain from lead actress. Michael Stuhlbarg is the simple choice.
ReplyCopy URL"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."
Keep in mind, for the last 6 consecutive years we have had an individual get an Oscar nomination without being nominated for SAG/Golden Globe/BAFTA.
Who will it be this year?
My money is on:
– Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
– Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
– Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
– Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
– Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)Stuhlbarg seems like the more likely candidate than Stan, Shannon, or Elba.
There’s always an off chance of Haddish giving Blige / Chau the boot as well.
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This reply was modified 10 months, 1 week ago by
TheRedBoy.
A stat that perhaps bodes well for Bening – rarely in awards history has a picture garnered both Lead Actor/Actress BAFTA noms and seen both nominees ignored at the Oscars. The last time it happened was nearly 20 years ago, with Caine and Horrocks in Little Voice. Before that, Allen and Keaton in Manhattan.
For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!
ReplyCopy URLKeep in mind, for the last 6 consecutive years we have had an individual get an Oscar nomination without being nominated for SAG/Golden Globe/BAFTA.
Who will it be this year?
My money is on:
– Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
– Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
– Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
– Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
– Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)If you look at the qualities of Oscar nominees who got in without SAG, Globe or BAFTA nominations, they’re at least two of three things:
1. a veteran who’s been around a long time.
2. a former nominee
3. in a film that is a Best Picture or acting front-runner.With that in mind, I will probably say the possible suspects are:
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
Tracey Letts or Lucas Hedges (Lady Bird)
Catherine Keener (Get Out)
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)Relative newcomers like Krieps and Prince are unlikely to get in without getting a nomination in at least one of the big precursors. That’s unheard of in the modern day awards cycle.
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This reply was modified 10 months, 1 week ago by
Irvin Malcolm Contreras.
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This reply was modified 10 months, 1 week ago by
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