PGA: why is it a reliable precursor?

[J-NoParticipant Joined: Feb 16th, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 34 View Predictions]

#217674

Obviously, the PGA has successfully forecasted the Best Picture winner the past six years, 19/26 years, and it uses the same preferential ballot as AMPAS. However, that guild is limited to “members of the producing establishment worldwide”. AMPAS’ votes are tallied from all branches. So, why is there high correlation and sustained confidence that PGA success carries over to the Oscars?

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[RileyParticipant Joined: Oct 11th, 2010 Topics: 110 Posts: 13525 View Predictions]

#217676

My two cents are at:

http://www.goldderby.com/forum/topics/view/13964/page:2#post_524202

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[J-NoParticipant Joined: Feb 16th, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 34 View Predictions]

#217677

http://www.goldderby.com/forum/topics/view/13964/page:2#post_524202

Thanks. I was an active contributor to the link you posted. I still fail to see how the preferences of the producers can be assumed to line up with those of the members of the other Academy branches. Especially with one film so well-represented across the board as The Revenant.

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