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SAG+WGA vs. PGA/DGA

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    Nameizmann
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    People usually think of PGA, DGA, and SAG as the big 3 precursors. And among them, people say PGA has the most predictive power for BP, followed by DGA and SAG. But SAG+WGA proves to be a really powerful combo, perhaps even moreso than PGA+DGA.

    In the last 20 years, SAG Ensemble winner has lined up with BP 50% of the time (10/20). Now add WGA into the mix.

    SAG+WGA winner has lined up with BP 67% of the time (6/9): Parasite, Spotlight, Argo, Slumdog, No Country, and Crash.

    Among the three times it didn’t line up–Little Miss Sunshine, Traffic, and Gosford Park–two of them lost to another WGA winner (A Beautiful Mind and Departed won WGA Adapted).

    So SAG+WGA winner lost against a different PGA or DGA winner (who lost WGA) only once in the past twenty years. Only Traffic couldn’t consummate the Oscar glory.

    Which two-award combo do you think is the most powerful? PGA+DGA (Shape of Water)? SAG+WGA (Spotlight)? DGA+WGA (Departed)? DGA+SAG (Never happened before)?  PGA+SAG? PGA+WGA?

    • This topic was modified 7 months, 3 weeks ago by Nameizmann.
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    Gabriel Guarin
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    We shouldn’t count DGA+SAG since that’s never even happened before.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    Let’s look at no earlier than 1995 since that’s the year SAG Ensemble was debuted

    1995 – Braveheart (WGA)

    1996 – The English Patient (DGA, PGA)

    1997 – Titanic (DGA, PGA)

    1998 – Shakespeare in Love (SAG, WGA)

    1999 – American Beauty (SAG, DGA, PGA, WGA)

    2000 – Gladiator (PGA)

    2001 – A Beautiful Mind (DGA, WGA)

    2002 – Chicago (SAG, DGA, PGA)

    2003 – The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (SAG, DGA, PGA)

    2004 – Million Dollar Baby (DGA)

    2005 – Crash (SAG, WGA)

    2006 – The Departed (DGA, WGA)

    2007 – No Country for Old Men (SAG, DGA, PGA, WGA)

    2008 – Slumdog Millionaire (SAG, DGA, PGA, WGA)

    2009 – The Hurt Locker (DGA, PGA, WGA)

    2010 – The King’s Speech (SAG, DGA, PGA)

    2011 – The Artist (DGA, PGA)

    2012 – Argo (SAG, DGA, PGA, WGA)

    2013 – 12 Years a Slave (PGA)

    2014 – Birdman (SAG, DGA, PGA)

    2015 – Spotlight (SAG, WGA)

    2016 – Moonlight (WGA)

    2017 – The Shape of Water (DGA, PGA)

    2018 – Green Book (PGA)

    2019 – Parasite (SAG, WGA)

    So 4 times for SAG + WGA and DGA + PGA, twice for WGA only, once for DGA only, twice for PGA only, 4 times for SAG + DGA + PGA + WGA, twice for DGA + WGA.

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    Djoko
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    Since the preferential ballot, Screenplay has become more important to Best Picture than Director has so I would say anything with WGA is the most powerful.

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    m844
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    We shouldn’t count DGA+SAG since that’s never even happened before.

    Why has the DGA + SAG combo never happened before? Directors and actors agree with each other, but not with the producers?

    Yes, I would agree that the SAG + WGA combo seems the most powerful of the two guild combos, due to the huge memberships within the Academy.

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    John Berchmans
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    SAG + WGA is a lot more powerful of a combo than I realized: same accuracy as PGA + DGA and it has a 75% win ratio over the latter (meaning when one film wins SAG + WGA and another wins PGA + DGA in the same year the former wins Picture 75% of the time). I think we should take this combo a lot more seriously in the future.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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