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November 12, 2015 at 12:08 pm #197992
As of this writing, “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” only comes in 17th place in our combined Best Picture chart. That’s way too low. “Star Wars VII” will likely become the biggest box office success in the history of cinema — will the Oscars REALLY ignore it?
Am I crazy for thinking it’s a lock for one of the Best Picture slots? For those of you who aren’t predicting it, please explain why. And if you are predicting it, state your reasons, too.
Here’s the current odds chart for Best Picture:
http://www.goldderby.com/stats/combined/oscars-2015-nominations/best-picture.htmlNovember 12, 2015 at 12:18 pm #197994
I think its fate will ultimately echo The Dark Knight, although I doubt it will be as critically acclaimed and have as many nominations as TDK. I think it will do very well in the below-the-line nominations (maybe even winning a few awards in visual effects, sound editing, and or sound mixing), but other than that, I don’t see it breaking through in any of the major categories. If The Hateful Eight, Joy, and The Revenant all follow through as I suspect they will, Best Picture will be far too crowded this year for The Force Awakens.November 12, 2015 at 12:19 pm #197995
It is a science fiction film. They traditionally do poorly with the Oscars.
It is a sequel. They traditionally do poorly with the Oscars.
Reviews will likely be mixed-to-good, but will not be fantastic.
It will (with or without justification) be seen as a “popcorn” film by many serious critics.
1-2 box office successes make the Oscar list each year, but being a box office success far from guarantees nominations.
Inside Out and The Martian are already critical box office successes likely to make the list.
It’s not impossible, but all the above are very viable reasons why it’s far from a lock and may not even be a serious contender.November 12, 2015 at 1:05 pm #197997
“The Phantom Menace.” #NeverForget
Many things would have to happen in sequence before I’ll believe in “The Force Awakens” as a legitimate Oscar contender beyond tech nods.November 12, 2015 at 4:24 pm #197998
It’s the 7th movie in a franchise that’s why, The Hobbit didn’t do aswell as the Lord of the Rings in terms of awards recognition because it wasn’t as big of a technical feat.
Stars Wars: The Force Awakens will likely be the most successful film ever… But it’s not going to stun audiences like the first three did, just another Sci-Fi film which will likely be quite entertaining but nothing more.
The Martian seems like a more academy friendly Sci Fi-film, although I wouldn’t be surprised if that doesn’t nominated too.November 12, 2015 at 4:31 pm #197999
Just today there was a story about how they aren’t going to show this ahead of time for SAG/critics’ awards. This just isn’t a movie that’s being positioned for Oscars.November 12, 2015 at 5:21 pm #198000
I’m going to paraphrase what I said in the “Can Star Wars: The Force Awakens pull an Avatar?” thread.
“Regardless of quality, the main reason why Star Wars: The Force Awakens won’t get a Best Picture nom is because of the ranked voting system. How many voters are going to put this film as their #1 choice? If the voting system was non-ranked, like in 2009 and 2010, then I could see enough voters putting it in their 9th or 10th slots for the film to get in. It’s not a coincidence during those two years a lot of blockbusters got nominated which wouldn’t be the case had the voting system been different (The Blind Side, District 9, and Up in 2009; Inception and Toy Story 3 in 2010).”
In addition, you’ve got the sci-fi bias and the sequel bias. To overcome the latter, it will have to get near universal acclaim in reviews. And then you’ve got the fact that this movie is following the widely-disliked prequels. That is a lot of hurdles for one movie to overcome. Right now, let’s hope this is a good movie, and then we can talk about potential Oscar nominations.November 12, 2015 at 5:33 pm #198001
Yes, you’re crazy for thinking Star Wars: The Force Awakens is a lock for Best Picture. It’s unseen as of November 12, 2015 so at the moment it’s just wishful thinking from fanboys. Joy, The Hateful 8 and The Reverant at least have directors with a proven track-record with Oscar something The Force Awakens doesn’t have. So it’s unstandable as to why those 3 are seen contenders.November 12, 2015 at 7:20 pm #198002
If Empire Strikes back can’t win Art Direction over freaking Tess, let alone get nominated for Best Picture of the year, why the heck would The Force Awakens?! Remember how Return of the Jedi lost all those technical awards all those years ago to the Right Stuff?! Right Academy, Fanny & Alexander had so much more creative and unique Production Design. Such a disgrace…. “cry” 🙁November 12, 2015 at 8:32 pm #198003
I really want to but… yeah there’s alot of reasons why not. Too risky.
But it could happen. Just unlikely.November 12, 2015 at 11:42 pm #198004
because I saw the last three Star Wars films!November 13, 2015 at 6:35 am #198005
Hmmm…..I guess we’ll ALL see what happens here….lol.
Judging from the posts above, it appears that we’ve covered many of the ‘reasons’.
If it’s “good”, I hope to heck it receives a BP nod. Why tf not???? Afterall, when I think of other films which have made the cut and even WON, again, wtf not for Star Wars?
Argo? The Artist?; to name two recent victors… C’mon. Geez. Nice films in a stretch, but Star Wars, is iconic now.
Anyone like to call me a fanboy? Come ahead.
Fingers crossed for Lawrence Kasdan, George Lucas, Michael Arndt, JJ Abrams, John Williams, the CAST, including Andy Serkis and the ‘originals’ returning….Disney Studios too….
Hey have we heard of these people? Lol.November 13, 2015 at 7:21 am #198006
I still have it on my BP predictions because, I mean..why not? We shouldn’t brush it off just because it is a 7th film in a franchise or is sci-fi. We have The Martian and Mad Max in the mix and they recently gave Gravity 7 Oscars. So don’t tell me they hate sci-fi.
Also, think about it. They’ve taken a lot of heat last year for making the Oscars very white and very male and are continuing to undergo criticism for ignoring blockbusters, especially after the phenomenon that was The Dark Knight got ignored. But here, we have a sequel with two minority leads, one Hispanic and one black, and a female lead. Are they really going to risk ignoring a blockbuster with a female and two minorities at the center? If it gets close to Best Picture, and it gets left off, the backlash will be HUGE since this film is already a phenomenon and hasn’t even come out yet. While some of the more prestige end of the year contenders will likely gain buzz, their buzz won’t compare to Star Wars. Especially if Star Wars gets a positive reception. If it gets passion across the board, then I don’t see why it can’t get in for Best Picture. If you don’t think it can, don’t try and feed me the “sci-fi” or “sequel bias” mumbo jumbo.
Also, because of their release strategy, releasing it on its day of release for critics and audiences, they might be using the film as a secret weapon and not just to avoid early spoilers. Seriously, we might really be underestimating it!November 13, 2015 at 7:54 am #198007
For SW7 to get in the BP race it really needs to be received by critics as the best Star Wars movie ever, because being the grand return of one of the most important franchises in Hollywood history and pop culture, and grossing all the money in the world, won’t be enough. If Avatar with its 2.8 billion couldn’t, against a movie which made a tiny 17 million (one of the lowest grossing BP ever), I don’t see why this one would.
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