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November 9, 2015 at 9:57 am #197634
So far, I think there are two locks for this category: Spotlight (Ruffalo, Keaton, McAdams, Shreiber, James, Cariou, etc.) and Steve Jobs (Fassbender, Winslet, Daniels, Rogen, the three girls who play his daughter, Waterston, etc.). Several possible nominees that haven’t come out yet here: The Big Short, Joy, The Revenant and The Hateful Eight seem like they all have strong chances in this category based on word of mouth and having fairly large casts…. I have the feeling that Carol is more of a two-character study and not enough of an ensemble??
Films I have already seen:
I would love to see the small cast of Room make it into the category – Larson, Tremblay, Allen, Macy, McCamus, etc. I would also love to see the large excellent cast of The Martian make it in as well. On my wish list would be the wonderful comedy-drama I’ll See You In Dreams (Danner, Perlman, Squibb, Place, Akerman, Elliott and Staller).
I didn’t particularly care for the ensemble from Black Mass nor did I think Bridge Of Spies was uniformly worthy (several roles were just too small and underdeveloped for my taste). Suffragette was wonderfully acted (Mulligan, Bonham Carter, Duff, Gleeson, Whishaw and Streep) but I don’t think it has a real chance at a nomination.
In the Heart of the Sea is a huge question mark for me; it’s so under the radar and I am looking forward to seeing it for myself.
I would absolutely love the small cast of Love & Mercy to make it in to the race but I don’t see it happening. I would just love for any of the four major performers from this movie to get nominations from the various awards-giving organizations (John Cusack, Paul Dano, Elizabeth Banks, and Paul Giamatti).
A wild card would be the voice cast of Inside Out but this seems really unlikely to me.
At the moment, I am predicting:
The Hateful Eight
At the moment, of the movies I have seen, I would like to see six films nominated:
I’ll See You In My Dreams
Love & Mercy
Are there other ensembles that others think have a realistic shot at a nomination???November 9, 2015 at 10:05 am #197636
I think late releases are at a disadvantage here, since their nominations are so soon, so I’d be weary of predicting 3 of them.
So far I have:
The Danish Girl
Spotlight (only certainty)
Although I can see Room being a surprise as well.November 9, 2015 at 11:48 am #197638
I don’t get productions for Revenant here. Not only is it purported to be mostly wordless, it’s also a one man show. Not like it not getting nominated here means much about its standing in the Oscar race.November 9, 2015 at 12:18 pm #197639
The Hateful Eight
Though I expect The Martian could easily replace one of those.
Predicting two late-breakers might be risky but I’m counting on them seeming obvious enough – I suspect Hateful Eight is more of a contender than Django ever was anyway. I agree with most that Spotlight is the only lock, and if Steve Jobs misses here then we’ll know it’s on very shaky ground.November 9, 2015 at 2:03 pm #197640
Suffragette has support? From who?
I think Youth is being under minded here (as well as every award show). Caine, Keitel, Fonda, Weisz, and Dano seem like a team that you can’t ignore.November 9, 2015 at 4:31 pm #197641
I thought Suffragette had bombed, at least in terms of Awards chances. Even Steve Jobs, w/ its disappointing box office still seems to have more people talking about it as a serious Best Picture contender. 😐November 9, 2015 at 5:46 pm #197642
The Hateful Eight
RoomNovember 9, 2015 at 5:52 pm #197643
Yeah, Suffragette is finished. It has no buzz. It will only continue to be passed over as the rest of the major players and possible breakouts begin to be released.November 9, 2015 at 7:19 pm #197644
I think its between Spotlight, Joy and Steve Jobs. Havent seent the first two, but Spotlight has an all star cast while every DOR film since his comeback has had great casts and this one looks great too
Give Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar.November 9, 2015 at 8:07 pm #197645
FYC: Inside Out (but it’ll never happen).
FYC: Ready Player One. Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Original Score, Production Design, Director and BEST PICTURE (make it happen Oscars!!)
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