Precursor Stats for the Tech/Craft Categories

[Emil Petrov Joined: Jun 12th, 2011 Topics: 74 Posts: 494 View Predictions]

#216921

Brakedown for the 8 Tech/Craft categories at the Oscars. 

FILM EDITING

ACE: Mad Max: Fury Road / The Big Short
BAFTA: Mad Max: Fury Road 
BFCA: Mad Max: Fury Road

CINEMATOGRAPHY

ASC: The Revenant
BAFTA: The Revenant
BFCA: The Revenant

PRODUCTION DESIGN

ADG: Mad Max: Fury Road / The Martian / The Revenant
BAFTA: Mad Max: Fury Road
BFCA: Mad Max: Fury Road

COSTUME DESIGN

BAFTA: Mad Max: Fury Road
BFCA: Mad Max: Fury Road
CDG: To be Announced (if Mad Max wins then Costumes are his to lose)

MAKEUP

BAFTA: Mad Max: Fury Road
BFCA: Mad Max: Fury Road
MHG: To be Announced 

SOUND EDITING

BAFTA: The Revenant
MPSE:  To be Announced

SOUND MIXING

BAFTA: The Revenant
CAS: To be Announced

VISUAL EFFECTS

VES: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (4) / The Revenant (3) / Mad Max: Fury Road (1)
BAFTA: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
BFCA: Mad Max: Fury Road
 

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[TerenceFletcher Joined: Oct 10th, 2014 Topics: 1 Posts: 400 View Predictions]

#216923

Thank you for organizing this way, it is so helpful to be able to look at all the results in one place like this.

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[Emil Petrov Joined: Jun 12th, 2011 Topics: 74 Posts: 494 View Predictions]

#216924

Yeah, I taught it will be helpful with the predictions. Personally I was surpries that the major awards are suggesting that Mad Max is frontrunner for Costumes. I am tempted to place it first place now. 

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[Emil Petrov Joined: Jun 12th, 2011 Topics: 74 Posts: 494 View Predictions]

#216925

Update after CAS and MHG

FILM EDITING

ACE: Mad Max: Fury Road / The Big Short
BAFTA: Mad Max: Fury Road 
BFCA: Mad Max: Fury Road

CINEMATOGRAPHY

ASC: The Revenant
BAFTA: The Revenant
BFCA: The Revenant

PRODUCTION DESIGN

ADG: Mad Max: Fury Road / The Martian / The Revenant
BAFTA: Mad Max: Fury Road
BFCA: Mad Max: Fury Road

COSTUME DESIGN

BAFTA: Mad Max: Fury Road
BFCA: Mad Max: Fury Road
CDG: To be Announced (if Mad Max wins then Costumes are his to lose)

MAKEUP

BAFTA: Mad Max: Fury Road
BFCA: Mad Max: Fury Road
MHG: Mad Max: Fury Road

SOUND EDITING

BAFTA: The Revenant
MPSE:  To be Announced

SOUND MIXING

BAFTA: The Revenant
CAS: The Revenant

VISUAL EFFECTS

VES: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (4) / The Revenant (3) / Mad Max: Fury Road (1)
BAFTA: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
BFCA: Mad Max: Fury Road 

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[Chevi Joined: Dec 8th, 2015 Topics: 0 Posts: 105 View Predictions]

#216926

Thank you. It seems in the tech categories there is consensus. Totally opposite to best picture.

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[Damiansport1 Joined: Dec 2nd, 2014 Topics: 13 Posts: 433 View Predictions]

#216927

Actually BAFTA sound category = only sound mixing. Look at the history of BAFTA sound winners and AMPAS sound mixing winners. the same winners in last 7 years

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[Eddy Q Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 23 Posts: 4679 View Predictions]

#216928

^ Since BAFTA started using the same voting process as the Oscars (branches voting for nominees, whole academy voting for winners), Les Mis, Gravity and Whiplash did all win BAFTA sound and Oscar for sound mixing, but they were all quite easy predictions to make anyway. With two huge behemoths going head-to-head in both sound categories, I wouldn’t necessarily expect the same outcome. I also wouldn’t consider BAFTA results prior to 2012, when they still had the reverse of the Oscar voting process, as particularly relevant.

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[MrScreenAddict Joined: Feb 3rd, 2016 Topics: 6 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#216929

Yeah, I also wouldn’t consider The Revenant’s Sound award at BAFTA as a check in the Sound Editing column. That award more directly translates to Sound Mixing. I think we might see a rare split this year with two such acclaimed tech-heavy films. I’m still predicting MM:FR for Editing until further notice.

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[Damiansport1 Joined: Dec 2nd, 2014 Topics: 13 Posts: 433 View Predictions]

#216930

Im so struggling with Costumes. Mad Max or Cinderella? Cinderella is my pick since like october and i think im gonna stick with it. It has most costumes + powell. but i know Mad Max won BAFTA and BFCA so is probably the favorutie.

but i dont want to pick what everyone does. So Cinderella is my upset pick

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[Bradley Weir Joined: Aug 16th, 2014 Topics: 5 Posts: 572 View Predictions]

#216931

Mad Max will win costume. Nobody in the Academy feels any urgency towards giving Cinderella an Oscar. Beaven will be victorious no problem. Carol has no chance after BAFTA.

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[Damiansport1 Joined: Dec 2nd, 2014 Topics: 13 Posts: 433 View Predictions]

#216932

Nobody felt urgency to award Great Gatsby or Anna Karenina either. bad argument. Costumes is the category where small films can win

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[DamianWayne Joined: Jul 21st, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 763 View Predictions]

#216933

10 films (Revenant makes 11) have won at Cinema Audio Society and BAFTA. 7 of those have won the Oscar for Sound Mixing. 

There’s gonna be a split this year with Fury Road winning Editing and Revenant winning Mixing. Unless Revenant wins all 3 MPSE awards.

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[Riley Chow Joined: Oct 11th, 2010 Topics: 156 Posts: 17583 View Predictions]

#216934

Only the MPSE Foley & Effects category matters.  The last MPSE
Dialogue & ADR winner that also won Oscar Sound Editing was The Bourne Ultimatum. 
MPSE Music is three for thirteen in matching Oscar Sound Editing since
the latter expanded from two nominees.

[quote=”Emil_Petrov”]Update after CAS and MHG

Thank you. It seems in the tech categories there is consensus. Totally opposite to best picture.[/quote]Makes you wonder why we fuss so much.

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[Eddy Q Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 23 Posts: 4679 View Predictions]

#216935

Nobody felt urgency to award Great Gatsby or Anna Karenina either. bad argument. Costumes is the category where small films can win

This is certainly true, but I wonder if Cinderella will be perceived as not serious enough for voters to give it much attention, even in this category. Great Gatsby and Anna Karenina were not popular with the Academy but they were very much films for “grown-ups”, being based on masterpieces of literature. Even Marie Antoinette, the last film to win the Costume Oscar with no other nominations, had more adult appeal than live-action Disney fairy-tale remake Cinderella. 

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[Damiansport1 Joined: Dec 2nd, 2014 Topics: 13 Posts: 433 View Predictions]

#216936

I see @Thedemonhog you are predicting Cinderella too. How confident are you on this?

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