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Rank your 2021 Oscar winner predictions by confidence

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204202283

    With less than two weeks until the ceremony, the 23 categories have materialised to undeniable frontrunners and still anyone’s for the taking.

    Rank your predicted winners by confidence in them winning (highest to lowest).

    Emmys FYC: Alan Tudyk in “Resident Alien”, Billie Piper in “I Hate Suzie”, Ego Nwodim in “Saturday Night Live”, Kaley Cuoco in “Harley Quinn”

    “Dickinson”, “P-Valley”, “Pose” & “Superstore” in all categories

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204202312

    1. Animated Feature (“Soul”)
    2. Sound (“Sound of Metal”)
    3. Editing (“Sound of Metal”)
    4. Director (Nomadland)
    5. Picture (Nomadland)
    6. Actor (Chadwick Boseman)
    7. Sup. Actor (Daniel Kaluuya)
    8. Cinematography (“Nomadland”)
    9. Live Action Short (“Two Distant Strangers”)
    10. International Feature (“Another Round”)
    11. Visual Effects (“Tenet”)
    12. Original Screenplay (“Promising Young Woman”)
    13. Costume (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
    14. Production (“Mank”)
    15. Score (“Soul”)
    16. Makeup and Hairstyling (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
    17. Sup. Actress (Yuh-Jung Youn)
    18. Documentary Feature (“Collective”)
    19. Documentary Short (“A Concerto in Conversation”)
    20. Adapted Screenplay (“The Father”)
    21. Animated Short (“If Anything Happens I Love You”)
    22. Song (“Husavik”)
    23. Actress (Viola Davis)

    Emmys FYC: Alan Tudyk in “Resident Alien”, Billie Piper in “I Hate Suzie”, Ego Nwodim in “Saturday Night Live”, Kaley Cuoco in “Harley Quinn”

    “Dickinson”, “P-Valley”, “Pose” & “Superstore” in all categories

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    mateil
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    #1204202361

    Highest to lowest(with chance):
    BEST ANIMATED FILM – Soul – 99%
    BEST DIRECTOR – Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – 99%
    BEST SOUND – Sound of Metal – 99%
    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – Nomadland – 95%
    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – Soul – 90%
    BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM – Another Round – 90%
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Daniel Kaluuya – Judas And The Black Messiah – 85%
    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – Tenet – 80%
    BEST PICTURE – Nomadland -80%
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – 75%
    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – Promising Young Woman – 75%
    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Nomadland -75%
    BEST EDITING – Sound of Metal – 70%
    BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT – Two Distant Strangers -70%
    BEST ANIMATED SHORT – If Anything Happens I Love You – 70%
    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT – A Love Song For Latasha – 70%
    BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – 70%
    BEST COSTUME DESIGN – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – 70%
    BEST ACTOR – Anthony Hopkins – The Father – 60%
    BEST DOCUMENTARY – My Octopus Teacher -50%
    BEST ORIGINAL SONG – Speak Now – One Night In Miami – 45%
    BEST ACTRESS – Andra Day – The US vs Billie Holiday – 30%

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    caan
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    #1204202369

    1. Director: Chloe Zhao
    2. Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    3. Animated Feature: Soul
    4. International Film: Another Round
    5. Score: Soul
    6. Sound: Sound of Metal
    7. Picture: Nomadland
    8. Production Design: Mank
    9. Cinematography: Nomadland
    10. Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You
    11. Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn
    12. Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
    13. Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher
    14. Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    15. Film Editing: Sound of Metal
    16. Visual Effect: Tenet
    17. Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainy’s Black Bottom
    18. Song: Husavik
    19. Documentary Short: A Love Song for Latasha
    20. Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    21. Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    22. Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers
    23. Actress: Andra Day

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    Butz
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    #1204202401

    What a fun idea!

    1. Director (Nomadland)
    2. Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya)
    3. Sound (Sound of Metal)
    4. Animated Feature (Soul)
    5. Picture (Nomadland)
    6. Production Design (Mank)
    7. Cinematography (Nomadland)
    8. Original Score (Soul)
    9. Actor (Chadwick Boseman)
    10. International Feature (Another Round)
    11. Original Screenplay (Promising Young Woman)
    12. Supporting Actress (Yuh-jung Youn)
    13. Editing (Sound of Metal)
    14. Makeup and Hairstyling (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
    15. Costume Design (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
    16. Original Song (“Speak Now”)
    17. Visual Effects (Tenet)
    18. Animated Short (If Anything Happens I Love You)
    19. Documentary Feature (My Octopus Teacher)
    20. Documentary Short (A Love Song for Latasha)
    21. Adapted Screenplay (The Father)
    22. Live Action Short (The Letter Room)
    23. Actress (Andra Day)

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    gorman
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    #1204202502

    1. Best Director, Chloe Zhao

    2. Best Animated Feature, Soul

    3. Best Supporting Actor, Daniel Kaluuya

    4. Best Sound, Sound of Metal

    5. Best Production Design, Mank

    6. Best Picture, Nomadland

    7. Best International Feature, Another Round

    8. Best Original Score, Soul

    9. Best Cinematography, Nomadland

    10. Best Actor, Chadwick Boseman

    11. Best Original Screenplay, Promising Young Woman

    12. Best Editing, Sound of Metal

    13. Best Supporting Actress, Youn Yuh-jung

    14. Best Visual Effects, Tenet

    15. Best Documentary, My Octopus Teacher

    16. Best Make-up and Hairstyling, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    17. Best Original Song, Speak Now

    18. Best Adapted Screenplay, The Father

    19. Best Costume Design, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    20. Best Animated Short, If Anything Happens I Love You

    21. Best Documentary Short, A Love Song for Latasha

    22. Best Live Action Short, Two Distant Strangers

    23. Best Actress, Carey Mulligan

    To be honest I’m reasonably confident in all of them bar the last 4, quite a lot of them feel like locks and although there’ll be a surprise or two it’s hard to say where. I do kind of fancy Emma to come through in Costumes, though. The shorts are very challenging to predict every year, but the Netflix three seem like the most accessible and timely of the bunch, and I’ve seen a few others and none jump out at me as sleeper winners. I imagine it’s unanimously Actress in last place for everyone.

     

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    Magnus
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    #1204202569

    1. International Feature – Another Round
    2. Animated Feature – Soul
    3. Director – Chloé Zhao
    4. Supporting Actor – Daniel Kaluuya
    5. Sound – Sound of Metal
    6. Cinematography – Nomadland
    7. Production Design – Mank
    8. Original Score – Soul
    9. Picture – Nomadland
    10. Original Screenplay – Promising Young Woman
    11. Costume Design – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    12. Supporting Actress – Youn Yuh-jung
    13. Actor – Chadwick Boseman
    14. Documentary Feature – My Octopus Teacher
    15. Makeup and Hairstyling – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    16. Film Editing – Sound of Metal
    17. Visual Effects – Tenet
    18. Adapted Screenplay – Nomadland
    19. Original Song – Speak Now
    20. Actress – Andra Day

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    William Gillquist
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    #1204202594

    1. Best International Film (Another Round)
    2. Best Sound (Sound of Metal)
    3. Best Animated Film (Soul)
    4. Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
    5. Best Director (Chloé Zhao)
    6. Best Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya)
    7. Best Costume Design (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
    8. Best Original Score (Soul)
    9. Best Visual Effects (Tenet)
    10. Best Supporting Actress (Youn Yuh-jung)
    11. Best Cinematography (Nomadland)
    12. Best Documentary (My Octopus Teacher)
    13. Best Original Screenplay (Promising Young Woman)
    14. Best Actor (Chadwick Boseman)
    15. Best Picture (Nomadland)
    16. Best Production Design (Mank)
    17. Best Documentary Short (A Live Song For Latasha)
    18. Best Film Editing (Sound of Metal)
    19. Best Live Action Short (The Letter Room)
    20. Best Animated Short (If Anything Happens, I Love You)
    21. Best Adapted Screenplay (The Father)
    22. Best Original Song (lo sí)
    23. Best Actress (Frances McDormand)

    FYC Emmys: Ted Lasso (all categories), Wandavision (all categories), The Mandalorian (Best Drama Series), Mythic Quest (Best Comedy Series), Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You), Alan Tudyk (Resident Alien), Antony Starr (The Boys), Daniel Brühl (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier), Ethan Hawke (The Good Lord Bird), Invincible (Animated Program)

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204202598

    I am most confident on these categories:

    1. Best Director: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
    2. Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judah and the Black Messiah
    3. Best Original Score: Soul
    4. Best Animated Feature: Soul
    5. Best Production Design: Mank
    6. Best Sound: Sound of Metal
    7. Best Original Song: “Speak Now”, One Night In Miami
    8. Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    9. Best Picture: Nomadland
    10. Best Visual Effects: Tenet

    Less confident but fairly confident:

    11. Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
    12. Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland
    13. Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
    14. Best Cinematography: Mank
    15. Best International Feature: Another Round
    16. Best Film Editing: Sound of Metal

    Not very confident:

    17. Best Costume Design: Mulan
    18. Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mank
    19. Best Documentary Feature: Collective
    20. Best Actress: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Never confident: any of the 3 short subjects!!!!

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    Chloe Sevigny stan <3
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    #1204202611

    1: Best Director: Chloe Zhao

    2: Best Animated Feature: Soul

    3: Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya

    4: Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    5: Best Score: Soul

    6: Best Sound: Sound of Metal

    7: Best Picture: Nomadland

    8: Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    9: Best Cinematography: Nomadland

    10: Best Documentary Short: A Love song for Latesha

    11: Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You

    12: Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman

    13: Best International Film: Another Round

    14: Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman

    15: Best Visual Effects: Tenet

    16: Best Production Design: Mank

    17: Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn

    18: Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland

    19: Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers

    20: Best Documentary: My Octopus Teacher

    21: Best Film Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    22: Best Actress: Carey Mulligan

    23: Best Song: The Life Ahead

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    CuriousHedgehog
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    #1204202803

    I’m stealing Giffin’s format because it’s smart.

    Confident

    Best Animated Feature: Soul
    Best Director: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judah and the Black Messiah
    Best Original Score: Soul
    Best Production Design: Mank
    Best Sound: Sound of Metal
    Best International Feature: Another Round
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Visual Effects: Tenet
    Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher

    Kind of Confident

    Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
    Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
    Best Cinematography: Nomadland
    Best Film Editing: Sound of Metal
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland

    *Shrug Emoji*

    Best Original Song: “Husalvik” Eurovision Song Contest
    Best Actress: Carey Mulligan

    FYC:

    Best Screenplay: Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hitman)
    Best Actress: Sidney Flanigan ("Never Rarely Sometimes Always")

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    SN
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    #1204202889

    Director: Chloe Zhao

    Production Design: Mank

    Sound: Sound of Metal

    Animated Feature: Soul

    Cinematography: Nomadland

    Original Score: Soul

    Picture: Nomadland

    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya

    Visual Effects: Tenet

    Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung

    Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman

    International Feature: Another Round

    Actor: Chadwick Boseman

    Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher

    Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Editing: Sound of Metal

    Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland

    Original Song: Speak Now

    Actress: Carey Mulligan

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    wolfali
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    #1204203026

    1. Director: Chloe Zhao
    2. Animated Feature: Soul
    3. Sound: Sound of Metal
    4. Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    5. Original Score: Soul
    6. Cinematography: Nomadland
    7. Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love Youu
    8. Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
    9. Visual Effects: Tenet
    10. Picture: Nomadland
    11. Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn
    12. Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    13. Production Design: Mank
    14. International Feature: Another Round
    15. Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    16. Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher
    17. Editing: Sound of Metal
    18. Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    19. Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland
    20. Original Song: Husavik
    21. Documentary Short: A Concerto is a Conversation
    22. Actress: Carey Mulligan
    23. Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    t-clark
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    #1204203030

    Confident

    Best Animated Feature: Soul
    Best International Feature: Another Round
    Best Director: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judah and the Black Messiah
    Best Production Design: Mank
    Best Sound: Sound of Metal
    Best Visual Effects: Tenet
    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Original Score: Soul
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

    Less Confident Territory

    Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
    Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Cinematography: Nomadland
    Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Best Actress: Carey Mulligan
    Best Film Editing: Trial of the Chicago 7

    NGNG Predications
    Best Actor: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

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    RelativeDivide
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    #1204203211

    Ranked by model

    1. Best Director – Chloe Zhao | 63% apart
    2. Best Original Screenplay – Promising Young Woman | 43% apart
    3. Best Animated Feature – Soul | 38.3% apart
    4. Best Picture – Nomadland | 38.1% apart
    5. Best Supporting Actor – Daniel Kaluuya | 33% apart
    6. Best Actor – Chadwick Boseman | 26% apart
    7. Best Adapted Screenplay – Borat 2 | 12% apart
    8. Best Actress – Frances McDormand | 9% apart
    9. Best Supporting Actress – Youn Yuh-jung | 2% apart

    My personal preference on the predictions (not ranked)

    Locked up

    Best Director – Chloe Zhao

    Best Original Screenplay – Promising Young Woman

    Best Animated Feature – Soul

    Probably

    Best Picture – Nomadland

    Best Supporting Actor – Daniel Kaluuya

    Best Actor – Chadwick Boseman

    ???

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Top two contenders (ranked)

    1. Borat 2

    2. The Father

    Borat 2’s only win was at the WGAs and was amazingly able to not be nominated at any other major award show and still be in the running. The Father looks like a dark horse getting lighter after its BAFTA win, so this may continue the WGA’s on-off pattern of predicting the Oscars it’s held since 2013’s Argo.

    Actual Tossups

    Best Actress

    Top 2 Contenders

    1. Frances McDormand
    2. Carey Mulligan

    This Best Actress race has been one of constant speculation and twist and turns that have made interesting headlines. After all the dust settled after the BAFTA’s, Frances McDormand and Carey Mulligan were left on top, with just about 30 points separating them (9% of the total). McDormand is the favorite here, but don’t count Mulligan (or Davis!) out.

    Best Supporting Actress

    Top 2 Contenders

    1. Youh Yuh-jung
    2. Maria Bakalova

    Another race making headlines, BSActress might seem like the hardest category to predict, but we can put some thought into it. Maria Bakalova, while giving a great performance, earned most of her hardware from the CCAs and smaller awards such as the NY Critics Choice and the Online Film Critics Society. Winning 2 out of the 3 “Big 4” awards that actually had a nominee winning (looking at you, Globes and Jodie Foster), it looks like the wonderful Youh Yuh-jung may just pull through. But as I said before, do not count out second placers.

    For your consideration, at the:

    2021 Oscars

    BD: Chloe Zhao
    BSActor: Youh Yuh-jung
    BAF: Wolfwalkers

    2021 Grammys

    AOTY: evermore OR sour
    SOTY: drivers license
    ROTY: deja vu
    BNA: Olivia Rodrigo
    BPVA: evermore OR sour
    BPDP: evermore by bon iver and taylor swift

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