Rank your 2021 Oscar winner predictions by confidence

[braydenfitzsimmons Joined: May 3rd, 2015 Topics: 88 Posts: 7538 View Predictions]

#1204202283

With less than two weeks until the ceremony, the 23 categories have materialised to undeniable frontrunners and still anyone’s for the taking.

Rank your predicted winners by confidence in them winning (highest to lowest).

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[braydenfitzsimmons Joined: May 3rd, 2015 Topics: 88 Posts: 7538 View Predictions]

#1204202312

1. Animated Feature (“Soul”)
2. Sound (“Sound of Metal”)
3. Editing (“Sound of Metal”)
4. Director (Nomadland)
5. Picture (Nomadland)
6. Actor (Chadwick Boseman)
7. Sup. Actor (Daniel Kaluuya)
8. Cinematography (“Nomadland”)
9. Live Action Short (“Two Distant Strangers”)
10. International Feature (“Another Round”)
11. Visual Effects (“Tenet”)
12. Original Screenplay (“Promising Young Woman”)
13. Costume (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
14. Production (“Mank”)
15. Score (“Soul”)
16. Makeup and Hairstyling (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
17. Sup. Actress (Yuh-Jung Youn)
18. Documentary Feature (“Collective”)
19. Documentary Short (“A Concerto in Conversation”)
20. Adapted Screenplay (“The Father”)
21. Animated Short (“If Anything Happens I Love You”)
22. Song (“Husavik”)
23. Actress (Viola Davis)

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[caan Joined: Sep 16th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 3 View Predictions]

#1204202369

1. Director: Chloe Zhao
2. Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
3. Animated Feature: Soul
4. International Film: Another Round
5. Score: Soul
6. Sound: Sound of Metal
7. Picture: Nomadland
8. Production Design: Mank
9. Cinematography: Nomadland
10. Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You
11. Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn
12. Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
13. Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher
14. Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
15. Film Editing: Sound of Metal
16. Visual Effect: Tenet
17. Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainy’s Black Bottom
18. Song: Husavik
19. Documentary Short: A Love Song for Latasha
20. Actor: Anthony Hopkins
21. Adapted Screenplay: The Father
22. Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers
23. Actress: Andra Day

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[Butz Joined: Oct 15th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1284 View Predictions]

#1204202401

What a fun idea!

1. Director (Nomadland)
2. Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya)
3. Sound (Sound of Metal)
4. Animated Feature (Soul)
5. Picture (Nomadland)
6. Production Design (Mank)
7. Cinematography (Nomadland)
8. Original Score (Soul)
9. Actor (Chadwick Boseman)
10. International Feature (Another Round)
11. Original Screenplay (Promising Young Woman)
12. Supporting Actress (Yuh-jung Youn)
13. Editing (Sound of Metal)
14. Makeup and Hairstyling (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
15. Costume Design (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
16. Original Song (“Speak Now”)
17. Visual Effects (Tenet)
18. Animated Short (If Anything Happens I Love You)
19. Documentary Feature (My Octopus Teacher)
20. Documentary Short (A Love Song for Latasha)
21. Adapted Screenplay (The Father)
22. Live Action Short (The Letter Room)
23. Actress (Andra Day)

Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 971 View Predictions]

#1204202502

1. Best Director, Chloe Zhao

2. Best Animated Feature, Soul

3. Best Supporting Actor, Daniel Kaluuya

4. Best Sound, Sound of Metal

5. Best Production Design, Mank

6. Best Picture, Nomadland

7. Best International Feature, Another Round

8. Best Original Score, Soul

9. Best Cinematography, Nomadland

10. Best Actor, Chadwick Boseman

11. Best Original Screenplay, Promising Young Woman

12. Best Editing, Sound of Metal

13. Best Supporting Actress, Youn Yuh-jung

14. Best Visual Effects, Tenet

15. Best Documentary, My Octopus Teacher

16. Best Make-up and Hairstyling, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

17. Best Original Song, Speak Now

18. Best Adapted Screenplay, The Father

19. Best Costume Design, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

20. Best Animated Short, If Anything Happens I Love You

21. Best Documentary Short, A Love Song for Latasha

22. Best Live Action Short, Two Distant Strangers

23. Best Actress, Carey Mulligan

To be honest I’m reasonably confident in all of them bar the last 4, quite a lot of them feel like locks and although there’ll be a surprise or two it’s hard to say where. I do kind of fancy Emma to come through in Costumes, though. The shorts are very challenging to predict every year, but the Netflix three seem like the most accessible and timely of the bunch, and I’ve seen a few others and none jump out at me as sleeper winners. I imagine it’s unanimously Actress in last place for everyone.

 

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[Magnus Joined: Jan 20th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 514 View Predictions]

#1204202569

1. International Feature – Another Round
2. Animated Feature – Soul
3. Director – Chloé Zhao
4. Supporting Actor – Daniel Kaluuya
5. Sound – Sound of Metal
6. Cinematography – Nomadland
7. Production Design – Mank
8. Original Score – Soul
9. Picture – Nomadland
10. Original Screenplay – Promising Young Woman
11. Costume Design – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
12. Supporting Actress – Youn Yuh-jung
13. Actor – Chadwick Boseman
14. Documentary Feature – My Octopus Teacher
15. Makeup and Hairstyling – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
16. Film Editing – Sound of Metal
17. Visual Effects – Tenet
18. Adapted Screenplay – Nomadland
19. Original Song – Speak Now
20. Actress – Andra Day

FYC
Picture: Dune
Director: Jane Campion
Actress: Kristen Stewart
Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
Sup. Actress: Kirsten Dunst
Sup. Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Original: The Worst Person in the World
Adapted: The Power of the Dog
Cinematography/Editing/Score/Production Design/Sound: Dune
Costumes: Cruella
Animated/Doc: Flee
International Feature: The Worst Person in the World

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[William Gillquist Joined: Jan 1st, 2020 Topics: 14 Posts: 857 View Predictions]

#1204202594

1. Best International Film (Another Round)
2. Best Sound (Sound of Metal)
3. Best Animated Film (Soul)
4. Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
5. Best Director (Chloé Zhao)
6. Best Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya)
7. Best Costume Design (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
8. Best Original Score (Soul)
9. Best Visual Effects (Tenet)
10. Best Supporting Actress (Youn Yuh-jung)
11. Best Cinematography (Nomadland)
12. Best Documentary (My Octopus Teacher)
13. Best Original Screenplay (Promising Young Woman)
14. Best Actor (Chadwick Boseman)
15. Best Picture (Nomadland)
16. Best Production Design (Mank)
17. Best Documentary Short (A Live Song For Latasha)
18. Best Film Editing (Sound of Metal)
19. Best Live Action Short (The Letter Room)
20. Best Animated Short (If Anything Happens, I Love You)
21. Best Adapted Screenplay (The Father)
22. Best Original Song (lo sí)
23. Best Actress (Frances McDormand)

FYC Oscars: Licorice Pizza (Best Picture, Best Director, Original Screenplay), The Mitchells vs The Machines (Best Picture, Animated Feature, Original Screenplay), Wes Anderson (Best Director), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of MacBeth), Andrew Garfield and Robin de Jesus (Tick, Tick...BOOM!), Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans), Stephen Karam (Adapted Screenplay), Attica and Summer of Soul (Best Documentary)

FYC Razzies: Dear Evan Hansen (in all eligible categories)

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[FreemanGriffin Joined: Feb 19th, 2012 Topics: 48 Posts: 4084 View Predictions]

#1204202598

I am most confident on these categories:

1. Best Director: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
2. Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judah and the Black Messiah
3. Best Original Score: Soul
4. Best Animated Feature: Soul
5. Best Production Design: Mank
6. Best Sound: Sound of Metal
7. Best Original Song: “Speak Now”, One Night In Miami
8. Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
9. Best Picture: Nomadland
10. Best Visual Effects: Tenet

Less confident but fairly confident:

11. Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
12. Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland
13. Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
14. Best Cinematography: Mank
15. Best International Feature: Another Round
16. Best Film Editing: Sound of Metal

Not very confident:

17. Best Costume Design: Mulan
18. Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mank
19. Best Documentary Feature: Collective
20. Best Actress: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Never confident: any of the 3 short subjects!!!!

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[Chloe Sevigny stan <3 Joined: Jul 13th, 2019 Topics: 4 Posts: 1089 View Predictions]

#1204202611

1: Best Director: Chloe Zhao

2: Best Animated Feature: Soul

3: Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya

4: Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5: Best Score: Soul

6: Best Sound: Sound of Metal

7: Best Picture: Nomadland

8: Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

9: Best Cinematography: Nomadland

10: Best Documentary Short: A Love song for Latesha

11: Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You

12: Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman

13: Best International Film: Another Round

14: Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman

15: Best Visual Effects: Tenet

16: Best Production Design: Mank

17: Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn

18: Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland

19: Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers

20: Best Documentary: My Octopus Teacher

21: Best Film Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7

22: Best Actress: Carey Mulligan

23: Best Song: The Life Ahead

Emmy FYC:

Chloë Sevigny in “The Girl From Plainville” and “Russian Doll”

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[CuriousHedgehog Joined: Mar 15th, 2018 Topics: 2 Posts: 459 View Predictions]

#1204202803

I’m stealing Giffin’s format because it’s smart.

Confident

Best Animated Feature: Soul
Best Director: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judah and the Black Messiah
Best Original Score: Soul
Best Production Design: Mank
Best Sound: Sound of Metal
Best International Feature: Another Round
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Picture: Nomadland
Best Visual Effects: Tenet
Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher

Kind of Confident

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
Best Cinematography: Nomadland
Best Film Editing: Sound of Metal
Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland

*Shrug Emoji*

Best Original Song: “Husalvik” Eurovision Song Contest
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan

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[SN Joined: Dec 7th, 2014 Topics: 4 Posts: 3535 View Predictions]

#1204202889

Director: Chloe Zhao

Production Design: Mank

Sound: Sound of Metal

Animated Feature: Soul

Cinematography: Nomadland

Original Score: Soul

Picture: Nomadland

Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya

Visual Effects: Tenet

Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung

Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman

International Feature: Another Round

Actor: Chadwick Boseman

Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher

Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Editing: Sound of Metal

Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland

Original Song: Speak Now

Actress: Carey Mulligan

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[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 216 Posts: 32847 View Predictions]

#1204203026

1. Director: Chloe Zhao
2. Animated Feature: Soul
3. Sound: Sound of Metal
4. Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
5. Original Score: Soul
6. Cinematography: Nomadland
7. Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love Youu
8. Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
9. Visual Effects: Tenet
10. Picture: Nomadland
11. Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn
12. Actor: Chadwick Boseman
13. Production Design: Mank
14. International Feature: Another Round
15. Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
16. Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher
17. Editing: Sound of Metal
18. Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
19. Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland
20. Original Song: Husavik
21. Documentary Short: A Concerto is a Conversation
22. Actress: Carey Mulligan
23. Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers

FYC:

"The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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[t-clark Joined: Feb 11th, 2013 Topics: 4 Posts: 64 View Predictions]

#1204203030

Confident

Best Animated Feature: Soul
Best International Feature: Another Round
Best Director: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judah and the Black Messiah
Best Production Design: Mank
Best Sound: Sound of Metal
Best Visual Effects: Tenet
Best Picture: Nomadland
Best Original Score: Soul
Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Less Confident Territory

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Cinematography: Nomadland
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Father
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan
Best Film Editing: Trial of the Chicago 7

NGNG Predications
Best Actor: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

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[RelativeDivide Joined: Mar 15th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 6 View Predictions]

#1204203211

Ranked by model

1. Best Director – Chloe Zhao | 63% apart
2. Best Original Screenplay – Promising Young Woman | 43% apart
3. Best Animated Feature – Soul | 38.3% apart
4. Best Picture – Nomadland | 38.1% apart
5. Best Supporting Actor – Daniel Kaluuya | 33% apart
6. Best Actor – Chadwick Boseman | 26% apart
7. Best Adapted Screenplay – Borat 2 | 12% apart
8. Best Actress – Frances McDormand | 9% apart
9. Best Supporting Actress – Youn Yuh-jung | 2% apart

My personal preference on the predictions (not ranked)

Locked up

Best Director – Chloe Zhao

Best Original Screenplay – Promising Young Woman

Best Animated Feature – Soul

Probably

Best Picture – Nomadland

Best Supporting Actor – Daniel Kaluuya

Best Actor – Chadwick Boseman

???

Best Adapted Screenplay

Top two contenders (ranked)

1. Borat 2

2. The Father

Borat 2’s only win was at the WGAs and was amazingly able to not be nominated at any other major award show and still be in the running. The Father looks like a dark horse getting lighter after its BAFTA win, so this may continue the WGA’s on-off pattern of predicting the Oscars it’s held since 2013’s Argo.

Actual Tossups

Best Actress

Top 2 Contenders

1. Frances McDormand
2. Carey Mulligan

This Best Actress race has been one of constant speculation and twist and turns that have made interesting headlines. After all the dust settled after the BAFTA’s, Frances McDormand and Carey Mulligan were left on top, with just about 30 points separating them (9% of the total). McDormand is the favorite here, but don’t count Mulligan (or Davis!) out.

Best Supporting Actress

Top 2 Contenders

1. Youh Yuh-jung
2. Maria Bakalova

Another race making headlines, BSActress might seem like the hardest category to predict, but we can put some thought into it. Maria Bakalova, while giving a great performance, earned most of her hardware from the CCAs and smaller awards such as the NY Critics Choice and the Online Film Critics Society. Winning 2 out of the 3 “Big 4” awards that actually had a nominee winning (looking at you, Globes and Jodie Foster), it looks like the wonderful Youh Yuh-jung may just pull through. But as I said before, do not count out second placers.

Don't Look Up is my favorite film of the year so take of that what you will

letterboxd: therandomizer

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