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Re-do : Which Recent Emmy Winning Actress is the Most Likely to Win S. Actress?

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Re-do : Which Recent Emmy Winning Actress is the Most Likely to Win S. Actress?
Rachel Brosnahan – The Courier (Won for The Marvelous Mrs Maisel in 2018)
Ann Dowd – Rebecca (Won for The Handmaids Tale in 2017)
Tiffany Haddish – The Card Counter (won for Saturday Night Live in 2018)
Cherry Jones – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (won for The Handmaids Tale in 2019)
Nicole Kidman – The Prom (won for Big Little Lies in 2017)
Margo Martindale – Uncle Frank (won for The Americans in 2016)
Elisabeth Moss – Next Goal Wins (won for The Handmaids Tale in 2017)
Claire Foy – Louis Wain (won for The Crown in 2018)
Samira Wiley – Red White and Water (won for The Handmaids Tale in 2018)
Other
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    wolfali
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    #1203692318

    In the past few years we’ve seen a curious trend go on in the Supporting Actress category at the Oscars. The past four winners have been recent Emmy winners :

    Viola Davis (2016) – Won the Emmy for How to Get Away with Murder (2015)
    Alison Janney (2017) – Won for Mom (2015)
    Regina King (2018) – Won for Seven Seconds (2018)
    Laura Dern (2020) – Won for Big Little Lies (2017)

    Whilst one may argue that this trend is purely coincidental there is no denying the possibility that the Emmy wins for these actresses helped keep them in the public eye and helped the buzz for their performances in their films?

    Which recent Emmy winner is the most likely to win S. Actress (I am counting recent as from 2015 to now) (even if you think Glenn is winning who do you think would be the most likely to cause an upset)?

    Obviously there is no rule that says a recent Emmy winner has to win this category but I’m interested to see who people think is the most likely to continue this trend.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1203692367

    I am counting recent as from 2015 to now) (even if you think Glenn is winning who do you think would be the most likely to cause an upset)

    Technically Glenn is a recent Emmy-winning actress.

    Glenn2009Emmys

    Going with Tiffany Haddish because it feels she’s a good role away from a nomination.

    I mean, she was what 8th at worst for a nomination for a July studio broad comedy that had no support outside of her while she was an absolute unknown to 99% of people that June.

    She did have a fair bit of pre-seen buzz for The Kitchen and generally feels like someone that the industry wants to reward.

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    wolfali
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    #1203692375

    Technically Glenn is a recent Emmy-winning actress. Glenn2009Emmys  

    Sure but (whilst Glenn was excellent in Damages) I am not considering wins from like 2008.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    marty
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    #1203692562

    Claire Foy. Claire Foy. Claire Foy. The Crown gave her a universally respected and acclaimed, iconic performance. No one can say her performances on the big screen haven’t been impressive.

    I won’t say Moss because her movie performances haven’t drawn awards attention, and there’s no way the AMPAS reward the Invisible Man, The Handmaid’s Tail has fizzled out 3 seasons in, but mostly because I don’t want a scientologist winning anything.

    rubbish

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    JGibson
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    #1203693318

    I understand your point but you really shouldnt relegate this to supporting actress as this trend just amplifies the popularity and impact of Peak TV in general. Supporting actress got the most recent precedents but it’s all about timing, campaign and narrative in that specific year.

    So this can happen in any acting category, specially when many Oscar contenders are in the same streaming services as Emmy favorites.

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    Honey
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    #1203693331

    I refuse to answer this in the poll because it’s against my religion to vote for them to win anything, even if they’re the only one who has experience being nominated for an Oscar.

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    Gabriel Seehorn (gabspss)
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    #1203693343

    Elisabeth Moss is doing so many movies. She’s hungry for an Oscar and, eventually, she will receive a nomination. That being said, I think this year the most likely actress is Claire Foy, but I’m not predicing any of those options.

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    nkb325
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    #1203693350

    I don’t know about anyone specifically this year, but Cherry Jones seems to have enough “respected veteran” goodwill, not to mention hardware for both tv and the stage, to knock out a win if she gets a nomination worthy part

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    wolfali
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    #1203693355

    I understand your point but you really shouldnt relegate this to supporting actress as this trend just amplifies the popularity and impact of Peak TV in general. Supporting actress got the most recent precedents but it’s all about timing, campaign and narrative in that specific year. So this can happen in any acting category, specially when many Oscar contenders are in the same streaming services as Emmy favorites.

    Yes of course and like I said I’m not saying an Emmy winner winning here has to happen this year by some rulebook but I think it’s become a well known trend to members on here (it’s literally in articles on here every year) that recent Emmy winers tend to do well in this category.

    Maybe Zendaya or Olivia win the Emmy this year and then the Oscar? That certainly would shake things up.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Heptapod
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    #1203693370

    I think it’s pretty clearly Elisabeth. Sure, The Handmaid’s Tale is fizzling out, but more people know her from Mad Men anyway, and even if THT sours, people will still love her. She’s doing her best to become the same kind of name in film as she is in TV. Just look at her recent projects/roles:

    A Chekhov adaptation
    Robert Redford’s “last” film
    A Jordan Peele pic with double roles
    Shirley Jackson
    An unstable rockstar with long monologues
    A Wes Anderson film
    A crime drama
    A Time’s Up remake of a classic film
    A Taika Waititi film

    Not trying to bash her or anything, she’s wonderful in absolutely everything she does, and I think it’s more that she has a nose for good complex roles, but she is definitely trying to break into the prestige film world.

    I do think it’ll pay off for her. The industry seems to love her, and we all know she can give an Oscar-worthy performance (she has before). I’ve been saying this for the longest time, but I think she’s winning on her first nomination. Don’t know when that’ll be (depends on how good her role in Next Goal Wins is), but unless she’s got an absolutely undeniable competitor, I think she’s easily getting that Oscar within the next five years.

    Claire Foy’s film picks haven’t inspired much confidence so far, but I think she will win one eventually as well, just maybe not very soon. She feels like a career winner to me.

    Margo Martindale… maybe? She’s done a lot of films over the past few decades, but so few have been good (and her roles in those good ones have been fairly limited) that I don’t really have confidence. If she really puts all her cards in on film and gets some great roles then maybe, but she seems so firmly set in television that I think she’s getting another Emmy but not an Oscar.

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    DrewN92
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    #1203693399

    From this poll I would say Elisabeth Moss.  Not included in this is Michelle Williams (likely because she doesn’t have a confirmed upcoming movie putting her in serious contention), but I think her clean sweep for Fosse/Verdon and her “overdue narrative” will put her in serious conversations next time she has the right role.

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    wolfali
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    #1203693403

    Claire Foy’s film picks haven’t inspired much confidence so far, but I think she will win one eventually as well, just maybe not very soon. She feels like a career winner to me. 

    I disagree. I’d say Foy was very close to getting nominated last time and that she could end up being like Cate Blanchett ironically lol :

    – Both broke through for playing English Queens. Both were nominated for big awards for their performance (Blanchett the Oscar, Foy the Emmy). Blanchett was seen to have been robbed of the Oscar while Foy won the Emmy.

    – Both were fairly well known in their countries before breaking through in a big way for their roles as English Queens in the States.

    – Both then went onto working with acclaimed directors (Stanley Kubrick, Steven Soderbergh) and starring in both Oscar bait films (First Man, Breathe). Blanchett did this and won an Oscar soon after some of her films in this mould I’d say it’s only a matter of time before Foy does as well.

    – Both became respected quite early on in their career.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Brenda Meeks
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    #1203693460

    Elisabeth Moss gives me future Lead Actress winner.

    With the right role, Margo Martindale could easily win Supporting.

    OT but Claire Foy deserved a nod for First Man.

    R.I.P Chadwick Boseman

    In Contention:
    Da 5 Bloods | Judas & the Black Messiah | Lovers Rock | Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom | Minari | Monsoon | Nine Days | One Night in Miami | Respect | Soul | The Trial of the Chicago 7 | The U.S. vs Billie Holiday | Without Remorse

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    nkb325
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    #1203693519

    I think the reason this trend has been happening is fairly simple, and there’s a reason it’s specifically been in supporting actress.

    Notice it’s predominantly been “older” actresses (all 40+) who are considered veterans of the industry, which if often the type of actor rewarded in the supporting category anyway (at least more often than lead). Television has long been the place older women go when the film roles dry up so it makes sense those women would be working in TV, but the whole “golden age of television” has made TV much more respectable and therefore the Emmy’s more prestigious. So these actresses work in TV, get attention at the “easier” awards show (Emmy’s) and then are able to use that career momentum and visibility to get better supporting film roles and catapult themselves into the oscar conversation next time they’re contending.

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    Atypical
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    #1203693843

    Ann Dowd. She was pretty close for “Compliance” and famously financed her own Oscar campaign when Magnolia couldn’t be bothered to do so. Now with the Emmy win for “The Handmaid’s Tale” under her belt, I think she could be positioned to win in supporting actress with the right role.

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