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Da 5 BloodsThe Prom is absolutely not getting in over Mank or Promising Young Woman.FYC:
Lead Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Supporting Actor: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
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Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges
Da 5 Bloods is absolutely not getting in over Mank or Promising Young Woman.
Well the thing with Da 5 Bloods is that it seems like the type of film that SAG will eat up. It’s fairly conventional. I’d argue the acting in <i>Mank </i>is very baity (it’s my favourite out of all the ensembles this season) but the film doesn’t seem to be one I can imagine sitting well with SAG (we don’t call them basic for nothing) so I expect they only nominate Seyfried and call it a day.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Da 5 BloodsThe Prom is absolutely not getting in over Mank or Promising Young Woman.The Prom is definitely ahead of Promising Young Woman. SAG favorites Meryl Streep, Nicole Kidman (Ryan Murphy) less likely than the likes of Alison Brie? All right.
less likely than the likes of Alison Brie?
Alison Brie is also a SAG favourite though. She got double nominated for GLOW even though she got snubbed at the Emmys. She obviously is not as much of a favourite as Streep or Kidman but the recognition and familiarity the cast has with SAG shouldn’t be ignored just because Kidman and Streep are in a film together.
I am predicting both to get in btw. But it’s not implausible for Promising Young Woman to be ahead of The Prom in ensemble.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Well the thing with Da 5 Bloods is that it seems like the type of film that SAG will eat up. It’s fairly conventional. I’d argue the acting in <i>Mank </i>is very baity (it’s my favourite out of all the ensembles this season) but the film doesn’t seem to be one I can imagine sitting well with SAG (we don’t call them basic for nothing) so I expect they only nominate Seyfried and call it a day.
While I also think that D5B doesn’t have a chance anywhere outside the Globes, I was just writing nonsense here because it’s quite late. I was meaning to say The Prom and not D5B in this case.
The Prom is definitely ahead of Promising Young Woman. SAG favorites Meryl Streep, Nicole Kidman (Ryan Murphy) less likely than the likes of Alison Brie? All right.
If they were in a movie anyone remembered one week after its release that could apply. But they are not. The Prom would be lucky to get a single nomination for Meryl Streep. If PYW performs as expected, it will get in just like something like Get Out got in over a movie with SAG favorites Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks.
FYC:
Lead Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Supporting Actor: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
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Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges
ActorÂ
1. Chadwick Boseman – Locked and loaded.
2. Anthony Hopkins – Showy performance and career best performance from one of the most iconic actors in cinema.
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3. Delroy Lindo – Buzzy veteran with a showy performance in a Netflix film and potential SAG ensemble nominee. He’s not as safe as Boseman or Hopkins but if he gets in at any awards show this is the first one.
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4. Kingsley Ben-Adir – I don’t think he’ll get in at the Globes or BAFTA (I wouldn’t rule him out from surprising at the Oscars for a nom even though I am sceptical about his film’s BP chances) and his buzz is quite minimal but something I noticed here is that since 2003 there has been an actor nominated every year in this category for playing a real life figure. He could get nominated just for playing Malcolm X.
5. Riz Ahmed – I think the film apparently having lots of naturalistic elements are going to hurt him a bit here but similar to (but not to the same extent as) McDormand I think he is just so well respected that I feel confident about him here. Regardless he’s happening at the Globes, BAFTA and Oscars.
6. Gary Oldman – Again someone playing a real person but if they snubbed DeNiro last year and I think he’ll have a similar trajectory to DeNiro then I don’t think he’ll get in. He has a better shot than DeNiro though because of him playing a areal person but unlike Ben-Adir he’s not playing an iconic figure.
7. John David Washington – We saw how he got in for BlacKKKlansman along with his buzzier co-star so it’s possible he does the same here. Help he’s a part of a Hollywood dynasty.
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8. Steven Yeun – He has the buzz and he may be someone who has some sort of respect with his peers but his performance is still in a non English language and even though <i>Parasite </i>won ensemble it’s been quite rare for these types of performances to get nominated individually here.
9. Sacha Baron Cohen – SAG loves to double nominate and loves to nominate the Comedy Globe winner so if he wins the Globe he has a good chance here. They also love to be generous to the co-stars of win buzz performances too so they could very well throw him a nom because of Bakalova (like how Tremblay coattailled to Larson or how Kidman coattailed to Theron and Robbie).
10. Lakeith Stanfield – Could coattail to Kaluuya like Baron Cohen to Bakalova.
11. Jim Parsons – Apparently SAG are pushing this one hard here (and nowhere else) and considering how much SAG held on to Parsons for Big Bang we could see people like himself (and on the TV side), Kaley Cuoco and Uzo Aduba end up like Jennifer Aniston where because of how popular their comedies were get in for every buzzy prestige performance they have.
12. Ben Affleck – I don’t like Affleck at all but his performance seems to be very popular and showy and is the exact type of populist mediocrity SAG sometimes likes to shower.
13. Madds Mikkelsen – I think he’ll have a better chance if he wins the Globe but like Youn I am concerned about SAG’s record with performances not in English.
14. Dev Patel – I can see a strange universe where because of 2020 that SAG nominating committee members go crazy and just vote for a heartwarming fun period comedy and its lead.
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15. Pete Davidson – Again a performance I can see being showered with love because of the 2020 of it all but something feels off considering him. Perhaps it’s my personal distaste towards Davidson and shiver that would result of a nom for him.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Da 5 BloodsThe Prom is absolutely not getting in over Mank or Promising Young Woman.Nope. It sure isn’t..
The Prom is definitely ahead of Promising Young Woman. SAG favorites Meryl Streep, Nicole Kidman (Ryan Murphy) less likely than the likes of Alison Brie? All right.
dont worry about these stans. The Prom screams as the ensemble nom that doesnt get BP at SAG. Not sure how anyone can argue PYW for SAG with so many 1 minute parts and empty cartoon caricatures and the divisiveness of it. The Prom is the basic feel good crap SAG eats up.
Why are people still confident about The Prom? I know it has a stellar cast but that didn’t stop them before. Also, the movie didn’t land with neither critics nor audiences (the way it was supposed to) and there’s far stronger movies in the mix.
Neither The Prom or Promising Young Woman are getting Ensemble noms. The Prom is no Crazy Rich Asians and PYW just doesn’t have a memorable ensemble performance. Carey is great but there’s nothing special about the supporting performances and all of them are one-dimensional characters (not necessarily a bad thing) except for Bo Burnham maybe.
Ensemble:
Da 5 Bloods
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7Actor:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, MankActress:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Zendaya, Malcolm & MarieSupporting Actor:
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas & the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of MetalSupporting Actress:
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank👑Cicely Tyson (1924-2021)
👑Mary Wilson (1944-2021)I realized that almost every year there’s one movie with 4 or 5 nominations at SAG, specially in the last decade:
2019: Bombshell
2018: A Star is Born
2017: Three Billboards
2016: Manchester by the Sea
2015: –
2014: Birdman
2013: 12 Years a Slave
2012: Silver Linings Playbook
2011: The Help
2010: The King’s Speech
2009: –
2008: Doubt
2007: –
2006: –
2005: Brokeback Mountain
2004: Sideways
2003: –
2002: Chicago
2001: –
2000: –
1999: American Beauty
1998: Shakespeare in Love
1997: Good Will Hunting
1996: The English Patient
1995: –What could be this movie this year? I’m thinking it could be Ma Rainey, so this case Glynn Turman would’ve to be nominated (that doesn’t mean the Academy will nominate him, though). It could also be Judas or ONIM, but I don’t know the former will have the visibility and the later will have the passion.
I realized that almost every year there’s one movie with 4 or 5 nominations at SAG, specially in the last decade:
I think it will be one of <i>Ma Rainey </i>or One Night in Miami. Although I think most likely the former because it has more passion I can see a situation where <i>One Night in Miami </i>has a similar awards trajectory to Bombshell (even though it doesn’t deserve that trajectory because it’s a much better film). The actors may be nobody’s in comparison to the Bombshell ladies but just like Bombshell they give loud performances as real life figures with theatrical dialogue (like the Bombshell ladies) and we know how much SAG likes that.
I can see a situation where Ben-Adir and Odom-Jr. get nominated everywhere (apart from BAFTA) whilst One Night in Miami misses almost everything (sans Screenplay and Song) and then go onto dragging in Aldis Hodge and an ensemble nomination here.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
I can see a situation where Ben-Adir and Odom-Jr. get nominated everywhere (apart from BAFTA) whilst One Night in Miami misses almost everything (sans Screenplay and Song) and then go onto dragging in Aldis Hodge and an ensemble nomination here.
Imagine being Eli Goree, part of a 4 member cast and your three co-stars all get individual nominations.
At least Sandra Oh (Sideways) would have some company.
Ma Rainey SAG FYC
A Fervent Believer in the Church of Viola Davis
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