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i am more baffled how could ellis and hinds miss the sag and got into ampas especially replaced by leto and blanchett of all people at SAG
I understand the Hinds snub (vote split due to Dornan being a well known actor and Hinds being relatively unknown+ Belfast got Spotlight’d at SAG) but Ellis’ snub makes 0 sense.
~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
~still love watching films and television shows
~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
~Currently watching Abbott Elementaryblanchett of all people at SAG
That one was a name check….even though she stole that movie right from under Cooper’s nose and was the best part
https://variety.com/shop/house-of-gucci-blu-ray-where-to-buy-1235187495/
Wonder if this could give it a push
Belfast
Will Smith
Jessica Chastain
Troy Kotsur
Caitriona BalfeIf Kidman (a huge movie star) playing Lucille Ball (a television icon) loses SAG (an award votes by people from film, television and AFTRA), her chances might be over
~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
~still love watching films and television shows
~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
~Currently watching Abbott ElementaryThere aren’t a ton of tea leaves to read here, but shouldn’t BTR have been able to manage a Simmons and Ensemble nom? It’s easy to look at Bardem and say the film overperformed, but it also kind of seems like an underperformance considering how hard Amazon went promoting the film. Something just feels a little off about predicting Kidman here.
Doubt Kidman loses…
So I guess Will Smith isn’t a rumored anti-vaxxer then.
• FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.
Few thoughts on ensemble:
5. House of Gucci – Not winning since it lacks a Best Picture nomination
I can see any of the other 4 ensembles winning, but here is my arbitrary ranking:
4. King Richard – Ellis missing is just too much of a red flag for me to consider the film competitive for ensemble. Will Smith will already be taken care of in Best Actor, so I doubt he will win another SAG trophy from ensemble.
3. Don’t Look Up – A-list Galore with the cast overlapping in both prestigious film and television. Seems like a SAG ensemble winner no brainer except for the fact that it has 0 individual acting nominations. Kind of think the film peaked in December (when BAFTA voting was taking place) and has lost momentum since it underperformed at the Oscars (No Leo, No Grande in song). The rotten score is too difficult to overlook as well.
2. Belfast – Dornan and Hinds both missing are inexcusable. Sure American Hustle only got Jlaw in at SAG, but BAFTA and the Oscars went 4/4 for the cast. American Hustle built very strong momentum after SAG nominations (won 3 Globes; received 10 Oscar nominations) while Belfast underperformed at the Globes and Balfe failed to get in at the Oscars.
1. CODA – Cast composed primarily of the DEAF community fits the diversity preference SAG-AFTRA has for winning ensembles. CODA’s ensemble is the most unique and charming with a strong narrative that Apple has been pushing for months. It’s also the biggest crowdpleaser nomination with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes audience score. Marlee Matlin doesn’t have a SAG award and can be rewarded here. Similarly, if Kotsur doesn’t win Supporting Actor — he can still be rewarded by SAG ensemble.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
Few thoughts on ensemble: 5. House of Gucci – Not winning since it lacks a Best Picture nomination I can see any of the other 4 ensembles winning, but here is my arbitrary ranking: 4. King Richard – Ellis missing is just too much of a red flag for me to consider the film competitive for ensemble. Will Smith will already be taken care of in Best Actor, so I doubt he will win another SAG trophy from ensemble. 3. Don’t Look Up – A-list Galore with the cast overlapping in both prestigious film and television. Seems like a SAG ensemble winner no brainer except for the fact that it has 0 individual acting nominations. Kind of think the film peaked in December (when BAFTA voting was taking place) and has lost momentum since it underperformed at the Oscars (No Leo, No Grande in song). The rotten score is too difficult to overlook as well. 2. Belfast – Dornan and Hinds both missing are inexcusable. Sure American Hustle only got Jlaw in at SAG, but BAFTA and the Oscars went 4/4 for the cast. American Hustle built very strong momentum after SAG nominations (won 3 Globes; received 10 Oscar nominations) while Belfast underperformed at the Globes and Balfe failed to get in at the Oscars. 1. CODA – Cast composed primarily of the DEAF community fits the diversity preference SAG-AFTRA has for winning ensembles. CODA’s ensemble is the most unique and charming with a strong narrative that Apple has been pushing for months. It’s also the biggest crowdpleaser nomination with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes audience score. Marlee Matlin doesn’t have a SAG award and can be rewarded here. Similarly, if Kotsur doesn’t win Supporting Actor — he can still be rewarded by SAG ensemble.
then HOG wins ensemble and chaos ensues over all b/c of tiktok voters
This SAG awards should be pretty straight forward but I’m tempted to think there could be a big shake up from what most people, me included, are predicting.
Belfast for me seems like a safe choice as it has been acclaimed by critics, it is still very present in the media with constant trailers everywhere, and has been well received by audiences; but I’m going to go with my gut instinct here and vote for CODA. It’s a feel good movie, with great performances and the fact that it has a real deaf cast playing the characters is a plus when talking Hollywood and inclusivity. Best actress I think will go to Kidman, even though I would argue that both, Colman and Chastain delivered better performances, but the thought of a loved veteran actress playing a huge American tv icon on a movie and doing a fairly good job leaves me little reason to think she would lose. Actor seems like an easy pick for Smith, and I’ll stick with him, but his lack of campaigning does worry me a little bit. I personally liked Garfield’s interpretation best and I would very happy if he wins, but at this point I doubt that they’ll favor anybody else but Smith, not even Cumberbatch. With supporting actress im taking a risk here (that I’m 90% sure I’m going to regret) but I’m going for Dunst ONLY because she has worked with so many of the voters, has a 30 year career and has the “due” factor. Having said that im well aware that Deboise is the favorite to win and will very likely win the Oscar as well. For supporting actor I’m going with Smit-McPhee, even though I would love for Kotsur to take this one. I’m only going with Kody because critics have loved his performance and the fact that Kotsur could get the SAG for ensemble seems like a good compromise.
I’m pretty sure that my risky predictions are going to mess my score, but at least it makes it more exciting.
I’m sticking with Don’t Look Up in Ensemble. It makes sense considering SAG-AFTRA has 160k members and I’m sure a good part of them are outsiders who don’t follow Oscar season as industry people does (even industry people don’t, sometimes). It’s just the most popular and widely seen movie, and it will be a good reason for Leo to give a speech on climate change.
Belfast is indeed the safest prediction, but I don’t know. Hinds missing wasn’t a great sign. This is giving The Trial of the Chicago 7 x Minari last year, although Belfast is arguably stronger than Minari (awards wise).
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