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I have to say I’m also sensing a Garfield win in here, performance aside, he’s currently the most popular in his category, this alone is enough to put him in a favorable position.
I had Andrew briefly but I felt like I was hopedicting so I switched to Will. Hope y’all are right!
Johnny Depp is a wifebeater.
If Colman wins SAG, I’m afraid it’s over for the ladies. I don’t think she will though. The guy seems to like Haim’s performance so much and she wasn’t nominated, so it kinda tells me that his taste is kinda disconnected from SAG’s mainstream tendancies.
I had Andrew briefly but I felt like I was hopedicting so I switched to Will. Hope y’all are right!
The most entertaining season possible would be Smith for GG, Garfield for SAG, and Cumberbatch for BAFTA. (And really, isn’t entertaining us the most important part of all this?)
FYC: 🐕 & 🐖
the meltdowns if HOG actually wins Ensemble
I mean anyone who doesn’t think Ensemble is between HoG and DLU is in denial at this point. There’s no other movie that’s winning it. We’re talking about 160k members here. If you think enough of them saw CODA and Belfast, good luck I guess.
The Trial Of Chicago: Netflix
Parasite: 258M$ B.O
Black Panther: 1.3B$ B.O
3B: 160M$ B.O
Hidden Figures: 236M$So yeah it’s going to be either a Netflix movie (widely available/seen on the most popular platform) or a movie that did good enough at the B.O to be widely seen.
CODA B.O: 1.1M$
Belfast B.O: 7M$I know we’re in a pandemic but you also have a movie in contention with 144M$ B.O.
The thing about anonymous ballots is that there’s way more incentive to talk when you don’t agree with what the majority is picking. But also, it’s hard to know what the mainstream opinion is with SAG when the nominating committee is such a small fraction of the full body. I bet there are plenty of people that will vote for frontrunner stars like Smith and Kidman without thinking twice, and no one will hear anything from a lot of them.
But even so, I think Best Actor could be pretty close here. As far as Garfield goes, his best chance of breaking into the top 2 is here considering SAG’s demographic. He’s the only other populist role in the category. And if Cumberbatch performs better with SAG voters than expected, I could see that hurting the presumptive frontrunner (Smith) and other auteur performance (Washington) more than it hurts him.
I mean anyone who doesn’t think Ensemble is between HoG and DLU is in denial at this point. There’s no other movie that’s winning it. We’re talking about 160k members here. If you think enough of them saw CODA and Belfast, good luck I guess.
The Trial Of Chicago: Netflix
Parasite: 258M$ B.O
Black Panther: 1.3B$ B.O
3B: 160M$ B.O
Hidden Figures: 236M$So yeah it’s going to be either a Netflix movie (widely available/seen on the most popular platform) or a movie that did good enough at the B.O to be widely seen.
CODA B.O: 1.1M$
Belfast B.O: 7M$I know we’re in a pandemic but you also have a movie in contention with 144M$ B.O.
I’d love that to be true but for example Parasite and 3BB didn’t have robust box office when they won. They were in by the force of their industry campaign, which is something all 5 nominees have. Besides they also won over films with bigger B.O. and/or were on Netflix.
I honestly believe as of now any of the 5 could win, and as much as having popularity as big as HoG or DLU helps a lot, it’s not a simple math as that.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.I’d love that to be true but for example Parasite and 3BB didn’t have robust box office when they won. They were in by the force of their industry campaign, which is something all 5 nominees have. Besides they also won over films with bigger B.O. and/or were on Netflix. I honestly believe as of now any of the 5 could win, and as much as having popularity as big as HoG or DLU helps a lot, it’s not a simple math as that.
Parasite was an anomaly that everyone universally was were rooting for (BO success or not) and actually 3BB was the second highest grossing movie in the category (first was Get Out, but we already know how the industry feels about horror films) and had Frances & Sam continuing their clean sweep to the Oscars later on, so yes popularity plays a huge factor especially ever since the SAG-AFTRA merger
Honestly speaking, all five films have a shot to win Best Ensemble.
Will Smith has not been campaigning at all, but it might help him in the long run…I’m sick of seeing certain people everywhere, overexposure and peaking too early is never good. Slow and steady wins the race.
Also not them saying DeBose is playing Maria.
I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he simply misspoke.
Parasite was an anomaly that everyone universally was were rooting for (BO success or not) and actually 3BB was the second highest grossing movie in the category (first was Get Out, but we already know how the industry feels about horror films) and had Frances & Sam continuing their clean sweep to the Oscars later on, so yes popularity plays a huge factor especially ever since the SAG-AFTRA merger
I didn’t deny it’s important, I directed that more at calling delusional whoever doesn’t predict these 2 since the 5 nominees are in strong campaign to that award group that could lead to the win. Parasite was so universally beloved because it had a wide distribution so everyone had access to it and then stan, it wasn’t magically found. If it wasn’t its strong campaign which again, all 5 nominees have, Parasite would just be another Palme d’Or winner and not the juggernaut it became.
With that being said, I am rooting for HoG to win Ensemble and I hope M’s prediction is true anyway hehehe
Will Smith has not been campaigning at all, but it might help him in the long run…I’m sick of seeing certain people everywhere, overexposure and peaking too early is never good. Slow and steady wins the race.
After that Twitter campaign begging for the media to stop interviewing Jaida and him, I think it’s for the best that he stays out of the spotlight for a second lol. He doesn’t need it anyways.
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