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SAG Awards 2022 Film Predictions (Part 2)

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    Bassett
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    #1204817704

    Well 1, I appreciate your conversation because it’s always respectful on your end and we both end up having valid points and you make me think outside of the box. 2. Stats aren’t meant to be broken? My biggest issue is that people collectively hold onto these stats that can’t somehow be broken. Yes, Coda and King Richard have missed Director everywhere, but there has to be other films, way back when, that possibly have went that same route where they missed Director but still won BP. You know I’m not about to go back, but I get your point. I just don’t think just because Dog has 12 nominations, are we all of a sudden deeming it as guaranteed. Just like last night, you yourself said there are potential challengers.

    If anything Belfast and WSS are the potential spoilers

    King Richard is beloved (and I personally loved it too) but the absolute refusal to recognize its direction (everywhere) means that it simply won’t have enough support to go all the way through. It’s a vehicle for Smith, simple as that

    Same goes for Coda. Should either of these win SAG Ensemble (which is absolutely possible) that would make them the new Hidden Figures. They simply don’t have the widespread support that is needed to win BP

    You mentionned Spotlight which was the first BP winner to win fewer than 3 awards since… idk when. This one still got into Director + Editing and was frontrunning in Screenplay which is essential no matter what

    Best Picture wins are always bolstered by a Screenplay and/or Director win. KR and Coda aren’t expected to win the former and are already disqualified for the latter

    FYC

    Best Actress - Pénélope Cruz, Olivia Colman

    Best Actor - Denzel Washington

    Best Supporting Actress - Aunjanue Ellis, Kathryn Hunter

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    almanzarlamarcarlile
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    #1204817717

    The last time a film won best picture without a director or acting nomination was Grand Hotel in 1932. So in other words, goodbye Don’t Look Up, Dune and Nightmare Alley.

    The last time a film won Best Picture without a a best editing nomination was Birdman in 2013. The editing miss there makes sense and the logic not apply to any of this year’s nominees. The time before that was Ordinary People in 1980. So in other words, goodbye CODA, Belfast, Drive My Car, Licorice Pizza and West Side Story.

    The last time a film won without a DGA nomination was Driving Miss Daisy in 1989. So in other words,  goodbye King Richard.

    I get that people want this to be a more competitive year than it actually is. I personally enjoyed TPOTD but don’t really think it’s worthy of the awards sweep it’s been getting so far. However, this is so clearly a Nomadland situation where people needlessly look for an upset that is just obviously not going to happen.

    Quinta Brunson 1st and 2nd emmy campaign manager
    Bill Hader 4th, 5th and 6th emmy campaign manager
    Jeremy Strong 2nd emmy campaign manager
    Zendaya 2nd and 3rd emmy campaign manager

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    Bassett
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    #1204817719

    I feel like last night you said Belfast and WSS, if I’m mistaken please correct me. So it seems like you are leaning towards the fact they got Director noms, which is fine. The reasoning behind me leaning more towards a Coda or King Richard win, is that even though they both missed Director everywhere, they are still very resonating films with positive messages that I think can break into the conversation despite having Director nominations.

    Yeah I get this but as I said, they’re not expected to win Screenplay either which is basically the only way they could win Picture

     

    FYC

    Best Actress - Pénélope Cruz, Olivia Colman

    Best Actor - Denzel Washington

    Best Supporting Actress - Aunjanue Ellis, Kathryn Hunter

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    BoBoBonehead
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    #1204817721

    Spotlight which was the first BP winner to win fewer than 3 awards since… idk when. = 

    Since The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)

    Only 9 films have won Best Picture without winning at least 2 other Oscars:

    Wings (1927)
    The Broadway Melody (1929)
    All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
    Grand Hotel (1932)
    Mutiny on the Bounty (1935)
    You Can’t Take It with You (1938)
    Rebecca (1940)
    The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)
    Spotlight (2015)

     

    Keep your blinders on. Dance to the disco music.

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    #1204817723
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    Bassett
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    #1204817731

    Fair enough. I most definitely appreciate our conversations and I will check in with you after SAG.

    I’ll be there

    FYC

    Best Actress - Pénélope Cruz, Olivia Colman

    Best Actor - Denzel Washington

    Best Supporting Actress - Aunjanue Ellis, Kathryn Hunter

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    Monet Tejada
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    #1204817858

    “Don’t Look Up” is winning Ensemble at SAG, but there’s not a chance in hell it’s winning Best Picture at the Oscars.

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    Colin Powis
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    #1204817865

    From the GD experts and Editors it seems CODA is likely to win best ensemble , but Tarik Khan recently wrote a good column on why DLU will likely win

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    Colin Powis
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    #1204817885

    DLU wins best ensemble and CODA is rewarded with Troy Kotsur in a BSA win
    THIS to me seems the most likely scenario … DLU has the largest, star studded cast of all, and crucially, it is the most widely seen movie of all … small casts don’t usually win … they can reward CODA in BSA and then go with DLU in ensemble and have all those stars on their stage

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    Colin Powis
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    #1204817891

    IF YOU HAVEN’T READ IT, THIS COLUMN BY TARIK KHAN ON WHY DLU WILL WIN

    1. It’s a classic ensemble film.
    “Don’t Look Up” features the largest credited cast of this year’s SAG Award nominees, and allows its actors to interact together across multiple scenes. It follows the same formula of many past ensemble honorees, like 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” 2000’s “Traffic,” 2001’s “Gosford Park,” 2005’s “Crash,” 2009’s “Inglourious Basterds,” “The Help,” 2012’s “Argo,” 2015’s “Spotlight,” 2016’s “Hidden Figures,” 2019’s “Parasite” and reigning champ “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” And while the largest cast doesn’t always win, the smallest casts usually lose. “Don’t Look Up” boasts an impressive roster of 14 actors. Its closest competitor is “Gucci” with just seven. The oversized ensemble gives “Don’t Look Up” an undeniable advantage.

    2. It features the biggest names.
    Leonardo DiCaprio. Meryl Streep. Cate Blanchett. Jennifer Lawrence. Those four celebrities alone have earned more than 50 combined SAG Award nominations. Each has been individually honored, as well. Throw in other familiar faces like Timothée Chalamet, Jonah Hill, Ron Perlman, Mark Rylance and Tyler Perry and you have a cast that’s hard to beat. Even the star-studded “House of Gucci” pales in comparison. With all those big names, “Don’t Look Up” shines the brightest.

    3. It boasts the showiest performances of any ensemble.
    SAG Award members almost always go for showy performances over subtle ones. Hence the omission of Oscar frontrunner “The Power of the Dog” in the best cast sweepstakes. The power of “Don’t Look Up” here is its theatrical style. Cast mates are constantly acting for the camera. They’re often hyperactive. At other times hysterical. And almost always hilarious. The acting in the other SAG Award entries is considerably less dynamic. Thespians will look at “Don’t Look Up” as the most dramatic, and therefore the most deserving.

    4. It’s definitely the most widely seen of the five nominees.
    When it comes to SAG Award success, the most important thing is getting a film to be screened. Historically, box office blockbusters (or at least, modest hits) have almost always performed better than little indie fare. That helps to explain why “Apollo 13” beat “Sense and Sensibility” when the first ensemble award was launched. That’s why “The Birdcage” soared past both “The English Patient” and “Shine” the following year. That’s why “Inglourious Basterds” saw glory while “The Hurt Locker” and “Precious” didn’t. As streaming has become more prevalent, the key is accessibility and availability. And guild cardholders have been able to easily look at “Don’t Look Up” since its Netflix release in December. And they haven’t been looking away. The film has been smashing records, and is now the most second-watched Netflix movie of all time. Has any other ensemble aspirant experienced as many eyeballs? This leads me to my final point.

    5. There’s probably nothing else that can beat it.
    “Belfast” is a small period film with a much smaller cast. The fact that it scored only one individual nom for Caitriona Balfe doesn’t bode well. The luck of the Irish may not be on its side. “CODA” is another sweet offering with a terrific but tiny team. As I previously wrote, the best place to reward it may be with a supporting actor trophy for scene-stealer Troy Kotsur. “King Richard” may be the weakest challenger here. While leading man Will Smith may walk away with the SAG Best Actor title, “King” is hardly a match for the competition. And finally, there’s “House of Gucci.” It’s the only nominee not in the Oscar Best Picture lineup. No Oscar also-ran has claimed this award since “The Birdcage” more than a quarter of a century ago. And “Gucci” seems to have lost much of its glitter. That leaves “Don’t Look Up” looking like the winner. Consider this your warning of a giant awards astronaut – swiftly heading towards collision with a most unsuspecting awards derby.

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    Chevi
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    #1204817910

    That’s how they are most comparable IMO. 2 seemingly front runners who checked all the boxes, but ultimately lost BP to a more deserving film.

    Roma missed editing just like Belfast (and sorry but GB was not a more deserving film).

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