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I think the simple fact is that due to (1) the changing nature of AMPAS membership and (2) the SAG/AFTRA merger, SAG nominations and winners are of significantly less predictive value for Oscar prognostication purposes than they were prior to 2016. As Scott Feinberg explained in a THR article yesterday, “in recent years, SAG merged with AFTRA (the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists), resulting in an influx of everyone from TV meteorologists to radio talk-show hosts; more recently, the guild began admitting TikTokers, too. Furthermore, the Academy has made a concerted effort to become a more international organization, with members abroad accounting for 12 percent in 2015 but 25 percent today. In other words, the people who pick the SAG Award noms — or almost any of the noms from precursor awards… and the Oscar noms are no longer very similar.” (Emphasis added.) A number of people have commented that due to the jury system, the BAFTA awards are less important in determining Oscar winners than they used to be. The same is true about the SAG awards.
And THIS is exactly why a populist, most wildly seen movie like DLU will win best ensemble
Still thinking about how Alana haim and Leonardo DiCaprio missing the Oscar nom when they had the same precursor run as aunjaune Ellis and Ciaran hinds
Alana deserved it thou
Alana was never going to get in unfortunately. Too ingenue. Not enough credibility or hype. Critics wins (clearly) weren’t enough. Not comparable to Gaga’s first acting nomination at all. Don’t Look Up on the other hand was too big of an ensemble. Films like that rarely get acting nominations. The interesting part is had Jennifer Lawrence been the main push, she could’ve gotten in.
Haim didn’t even had that many critics wins and she really needed one of the trifecta. Penelope Cruz winning 2/3 of the critic trifecta clearly helped in her scoring that nom with no precursors.
IMDb Scores
Ensemble
Belfast: 7.4
CODA: 8.1
Don’t Look Up: 7.2
House of Gucci : 6.7
King Richard: 7.6Each Ensemble winner since 2010
2010: Inglorious Basterds 8.3
2011: Kings Speech 8.0
2012: The Help 8.0
2013: Argo 7.7
2014: American Hustle 7.2
2015: Birdman 7.7
2016: Spotlight 8.1
2017: Hidden Figures 7.9
2018: Three Billboards 8.1
2019: Black Panther 7.3
2020: Parasite 8.6
2021: Trial of Chicago 7 7.8Alana was never going to get in unfortunately. Too ingenue. Not enough credibility or hype. Critics wins (clearly) weren’t enough. Not comparable to Gaga’s first acting nomination at all. Don’t Look Up on the other hand was too big of an ensemble. Films like that rarely get acting nominations.
The interesting part is had Jennifer Lawrence been the main push, she could’ve gotten in.
Not at all. Jennifer Lawrence was probably the least likely of the realistic potential nominees from that film-Leo, Streep, Blanchett, Rylance and Hill all had much better shots at a nomination than Lawrence.
~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
~still love watching films and television shows
~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
~Currently watching Abbott Elementaryensemble : Coda
lead Actor : Will smith
Lead actress : nicole Kidman
Supporting actor : Kodi smit mcphee ( coda isn’t minari and kotsur isn’t Youn )
Supporting actress : Ariana debose
I really think CODA will win Ensemble NOW so I am predicting them and I will happy for them because it was a great movie and it is a great representation of the deaf community.
Will Smith for Best Actor (Andrew Garfield could upset but I really think Will has this)
Nicole Kidman for Best Actress (I have a feeling we will get a surprise winner here)
Troy Kotsur for Supporting Actor (I have a feeling he will be the one to upset Kodi)
Ariana DeBose for Supporting Actress (She’s sweeping!!!)
ensemble : Coda lead Actor : Will smith Lead actress : nicole Kidman Supporting actor : Kodi smit mcphee ( coda isn’t minari and kotsur isn’t Youn ) Supporting actress : Ariana debose
These are my predictions too. Not confident in them tho. Especially Ensemble and Supporting Actor.
I have switched between back and forth between Kotsur and Smit-McPhee probably a good 10 times. (I’m on Smit-McPhee now, but I have no idea if I will ultimately stick with him — this category makes no sense.)
Ensemble: CODA
Lead Actor: Will Smith
Lead Actress: Lady Gaga
Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur
Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose
Stunt Ensemble: Dune
Ensemble: Don’t Look Up
Alternate: CODAMale Actor in a Leading Role: Will Smith – King Richard
Alternate: Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick… Boom!Female Actor in a Leading Role: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Alternate: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy FayeMale Actor in a Supporting Role: Troy Kotsur – CODA
Alternate: Kodi Smit McPhee – The Power of the DogFemale Actor in a Supporting Role: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Alternate: Caitriona Balfe – BelfastStunt Ensemble: Shang Chi and The Legend of the Ten Rings
Alternate: DuneI have switched between back and forth between Kotsur and Smit-McPhee probably a good 10 times. (I’m on Smit-McPhee now, but I have no idea if I will ultimately stick with him — this category makes no sense.)
It’s difficult to choose, but I’m sticking with Kodi till the end.
It’s difficult to choose, but I’m sticking with Kodi till the end.
This race just makes little sense based on past trends, which makes it so hard to predict. The arguments for Troy Kotsur are incredibly convincing, between him giving a more emotion-laden, presumably more SAG-friendly performance and him being a veteran performer. Plus, add the few voters who have publicly said they’re voting for him and the immense popularity and likability of CODA.
That said, we have an undeniable ostensible frontrunner in Smit-McPhee, the most rewarded actor of this entire season thus far (29 wins!). And SAG usually does not diverge from presumed, already decorated frontrunners, unless that person is not nominated, of course. Of note is also that he’s not only the forecasted frontrunner but also the star of a film that is predicted to win BP and is backed by Netflix, for which the guild has a disproportionate affinity (and you know that Netflix likely pushed him and the film HARD — though Apple is not to be underestimated either). The two common strikes against him are that he’s young and that his performance is subtle, but I am not sure how much weight those ultimately hold.
Firstly, we’ve seen that voters aren’t completely averse to subtle performances (see: Mahershela Ali — though his character was notably the heart of the film), and rarely do actors with subtle performances even arise as frontrunners — which would mean Smit-McPhee might have already overcome his biggest hurdle (though this is entirely hypothetical). I would also (prematurely) argue that the memorability of his character might compensate for the subtlety of his performance. Secondly, this notion that SAG does not like young performers is ironic given that they nominate child actors not only all the time but also more frequently than other awards groups. See: nominations for Keke Palmer, Freddie Highmore, Jacob Tremblay, Helena Zengel, etc. at a very young age, and the ensemble win for the Stranger Things cast, which comprises predominantly young actors. You could argue based thereon that winning is harder for younger actors, but again, when was the last time a younger actor was a frontrunner? (I can only think of Jharrel Jerome, whose momentum had noticeably subsided at that point.) Smit-McPhee also is neither 10 years old nor a newbie. He is 25 and has been working for well over a decade. I believe he has more acting credits to his name than Kotsur does to his, which IMO renders the “veteran argument” for Kotsur a bit weaker since SAG tends to go for well-known vets (though Youn, e.g., was not well known in the States).
Bottom line, this post is way too long (sorry) and this race is a mess.
I can’t predict Best Actress at all – I think any of them could win, even Jennifer Hudson! I have my wish as my prediction: Olivia Colman, since for me hers is the best acting performance of 2021 but I have no idea which name will be called…. makes it interesting though!
Will Smith unfortunately seems likely, hoping for Ariana or Caitriona, I would prefer Benedict and Kodi… but it’s all pretty much up in the air this year! The absence of any televised precursors is part of it but also just a lack of consensus and the industry not just going along with the critics this year…. It will be interesting.
I most want Belfast to win Ensemble Cast, but again that can go any which way…
The power of the dog is too divisive in a large body for me to think Kodi is winning. I’ve talked to many people who admire Campion’s vision and the art behind the film but don’t like it as a whole. But I’ve also met really passionate supporters for the film. The biggest hurdle for this film at the Academy awards is that I’ve seen a lot of its supporters shift their preference to Drive my car,which might bite it somewhere (maybe screenplay).
Member of the Screen Actors Guild. Inducted in 1999.
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