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SAG Awards 2022 Film Predictions (Part 2)

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    Joe Langer
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    #1204818339

    I think Balfe might pull off a win here. She has a huge base due to a show of hers (the name I can’t remember) and her snub caused some vocal support for her. I also seen a few people not voting for Ariana debose just because it’s already a winning role. Nonetheless she’s clearly the favourite to win.

    Member of the Screen Actors Guild. Inducted in 1999.

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    Queen Anne
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    #1204818341

    This race just makes little sense based on past trends, which makes it so hard to predict. The arguments for Troy Kotsur are incredibly convincing, between him giving a more emotion-laden, presumably more SAG-friendly performance and him being a veteran performer. Plus, add the few voters who have publicly said they’re voting for him and the immense popularity and likability of CODA.

    That said, we have an undeniable ostensible frontrunner in Smit-McPhee, the most rewarded actor of this entire season thus far (29 wins!). And SAG usually does not diverge from presumed, already decorated frontrunners, unless that person is not nominated, of course. Of note is also that he’s not only the forecasted frontrunner but also the star of a film that is predicted to win BP and is backed by Netflix, for which the guild has a disproportionate affinity (and you know that Netflix likely pushed him and the film HARD — though Apple is not to be underestimated either). The two common strikes against him are that he’s young and that his performance is subtle, but I am not sure how much weight those ultimately hold.

    Firstly, we’ve seen that voters aren’t completely averse to subtle performances (see: Mahershela Ali — though his character was notably the heart of the film), and rarely do actors with subtle performances even arise as frontrunners — which would mean Smit-McPhee might have already overcome his biggest hurdle (though this is entirely hypothetical). I would also (prematurely) argue that the memorability of his character might compensate for the subtlety of his performance. Secondly, this notion that SAG does not like young performers is ironic given that they nominate child actors not only all the time but also more frequently than other awards groups. See: nominations for Keke Palmer, Freddie Highmore, Jacob Tremblay, Helena Zengel, etc. at a very young age, and the ensemble win for the Stranger Things cast, which comprises predominantly young actors. You could argue based thereon that winning is harder for younger actors, but again, when was the last time a younger actor was a frontrunner? (I can only think of Jharrel Jerome, whose momentum had noticeably subsided at that point.) Smit-McPhee also is neither 10 years old nor a newbie. He is 25 and has been working for well over a decade. I believe he has more acting credits to his name than Kotsur does to his, which IMO renders the “veteran argument” for Kotsur a bit weaker since SAG tends to go for well-known vets (though Youn, e.g., was not well known in the States).

    Bottom line, this post is way too long (sorry) and this race is a mess.

    Very well put together, for both sides! 😊

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    Joe Langer
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    #1204818348

    I think Nicole is such an easy prediction.

    Member of the Screen Actors Guild. Inducted in 1999.

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    NevadaR
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    #1204818368

    I think Balfe might pull off a win here. She has a huge base due to a show of hers (the name I can’t remember) and her snub caused some vocal support for her. I also seen a few people not voting for Ariana debose just because it’s already a winning role. Nonetheless she’s clearly the favourite to win.

    If she couldn’t win at the Globes where they adore her…I don’t think she’s gonna surprise here despite her ‘huge base’.

    As for TPOTD if I remember correctly you had doubts about Dunst and Kodi getting nominated yet it happened. Maybe you’re wrong this time as well who knows

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    Derrick Eoghan Oisín O'Callaghan
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    #1204818380

    I think Nicole is such an easy prediction.

    I don’t know.  Something is telling me we will get a surprise here

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    Lil Tony
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    #1204818399

    Green Book was whole heartedly a better choice than Roma. Roma was unwatchable.

    The only good thing about Roma was that beach scene. Talk about overrated. It wasn’t as boring as Dog though. Dog is just pointless and lifeless from start to finish. Green Book was better.and I find it offensive that they snubbed Emily Blunt in Best actress for Aparicio just because she was in a hyped up BP frontrunner

    Lady Gaga's BIGGEST FAN

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    Maria
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    #1204818415

    If people finds tpod boring what they are gonna say about Marty new movie next year 😭

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    Monet Tejada
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    #1204818422

    Hopefully, we see some upsets tomorrow. Crazy how SAG has become more predictable than the Oscars.

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    lorelei lor
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    #1204818425

    If people finds tpod boring what they are gonna say about Marty new movie next year 😭

    They won’t make it through half an hour of Drive My Car lol

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    Maria
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    #1204818437

    They won’t make it through half an hour of Drive My Car lol

    Next round two next year  be like a slow burn western with a likley critic sweeper in the lead and supporting Vs an autobiographical story with two supporting actors and a veteran multiple Oscar nominated actress

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    lorelei lor
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    #1204818443

    Next round two next year be like a slow burn western with a likley critic sweeper in the lead and supporting Vs an autobiographical story with two supporting actors and a veteran multiple Oscar nominated actress

    Good. Let them struggle 😈

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    Chevi
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    #1204818452

    The only good thing about Roma was that beach scene. Talk about overrated. It wasn’t as boring as Dog though. Dog is just pointless and lifeless from start to finish. Green Book was better.and I find it offensive that they snubbed Emily Blunt in Best actress for Aparicio just because she was in a hyped up BP frontrunner

    We are going off topic here. But Green Book is kind of an “average” movie. Nobody mentioned or is going to bring up GB when talking about the best of the last decade.

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    Maria
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    #1204818459

    Off topic but Marty next year won’t win best picture not since the academy won’t reward two westerns in a row 😭😭 it will probably go to Sarah polley new movie like spotlight win

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204818489

    It has become very uncommon for one film to win both Ensemble and acting award. Three Billboards is the only one in recent years. I just can’t see CODA winning both of its nominations, but also I would be little surprised if it didn’t win anything.

    Netflix also has such a big influence in this awards group in particular. It’s smart to predict them somewhere. So I have made this decision. Either predict CODA in Ensemble and Smit-McPhee in Supporting Actor OR Don’t Look Up in Ensemble and Kotsur in Supporting Actor. I have former as of now, but oh well…

     

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    crabbie
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    #1204818497

    Don’t Look Up has a Rotten Tomatoes audience score (all audience, not verified) of 73%. It’s well-liked, but not loved. It’s divisiveness is likely to deter some voters away because there are some people who hate the film. There’s never been a film with a rotten score that has won SAG ensemble. Usually the films of ensemble winners aren’t divisive and bringing up DLU’s IMDB score—it’s only a 7.3 score.

    It seems like Don’t Look Up is only good at securing nominations, but not winning. It didn’t win anything major at NBR and blanked out at the Globes and AACTA. I see no reason why it would win at SAG. I wont be surprised though because of the strength of influencers, but what a sad win.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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