February 8, 2022 at 7:27 am #1204787807
Most years SAG gets 16 or 17 of the acting nominees that go on to Oscar nomiantions – this year only TWELVE! One of the lowest ever (maybe 2001 was lower? Not certain).
All 5 of their Best Actor lineup, but only 3 for Actress, and only 2 each for Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress!
Penelope Cruz and Kristen Stewart instead of Lady Gaga and Jennifer Hudson (I was wrong about a voting bloc getting Hudson in).
Jessie Buckley! Judi Dench! and Aunjanue Ellis instead of Caitriona Balfe, Cate Blanchett and Ruth Negga.
Ciarian Hinds!, Jesse Plemons and J.K. Simmons instead of Ben Affleck and the atrocious Bradley Cooper and Jared Leto!
The acting branch loved House of Gucci but the other branches didn’t care for it apparently! 4 of the 5 Ensemble casts have BP nominations.February 9, 2022 at 12:03 am #1204791122
Wish list post-Oscar nominations for SAG winners:
Ensemble Cast: BELFAST
Actor: BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH for The Power of the Dog
Actress: OLIVIA COLMAN for The Lost Daughter
Supporting Actor: KODI SMIT-McPHEE for The Power of the Dog
Supporting Actress: ARIANA DeBOSE for West Side StoryFebruary 10, 2022 at 2:08 pm #1204795295
This guild really doesn’t mean anything this year. I could totally see them awarding House of Gucci in one of the categories since they liked it so much. I won’t predict it though.
Ensemble: Don’t Look Up
Actor: Will Smith
Alt: Andrew Garfield
Actress: Jessica Chastain
Alt: Nicole Kidman
Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur
Alt: Kodi Smit McPhee
Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose
Alt: Caitriona Balfe
Troy Kotsur here could be a Denzel Washington/Casey Affleck situation. I don’t think Kotsur has enough international support to beat Smit McPhee, especially with The Power of the Dog overperforming with the acting branch.February 10, 2022 at 2:42 pm #1204795381
was it the lowest overlap since its creation or not only 12 made it god ??
only 2/5 of the supporting actually made itFebruary 10, 2022 at 8:49 pm #1204795949
February 27th needs to hurry up and happen!
imo SAG will tell us who the real frontrunner is for Best Actress, and will help us to know if DeBose and Smit-McPhee are in a strong position to win in their categories.
If Cumberbatch surprises and wins here, or anyone other than Smith, then that will be extremely revealing.
I really want Belfast to win the Ensemble award. I would only really be unhappy if King Richard were to win there. Honestly any of the five can win but come on, SAG, give it to Belfast!February 10, 2022 at 10:51 pm #1204796017
Only category that I’m curious about is Best cast. Bc it could go to any of them.February 11, 2022 at 5:14 am #1204796228
12 out of 20 is the new record low – 1994, 1996 and 2015 all had 13 out of 20.
2006 had 19 out of 20 – Leonardo DiCaprio for The Departed in Supporting Actor was the only nominee at SAG that didn’t go on to get an Oscar nomination that year.
The average is actually 15 out of 20.
There was only 1 out 5 nominated for Supporting Actress for 2001 but Jennifer Connelly, the eventual Oscar winner, was nominated in their Best Actress category that year.
Having 2 out 5 in both supporting categories this year is unprecedented.February 11, 2022 at 5:36 pm #1204797484
Received the West Side Story screener today. Today! Too late.
Member of the Screen Actors Guild. Inducted in 1999.February 11, 2022 at 8:45 pm #1204797689This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.February 11, 2022 at 8:56 pm #1204797712This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.February 11, 2022 at 10:30 pm #1204797809
I think the simple fact is that due to (1) the changing nature of AMPAS membership and (2) the SAG/AFTRA merger, SAG nominations and winners are of significantly less predictive value for Oscar prognostication purposes than they were prior to 2016. As Scott Feinberg explained in a THR article yesterday, “in recent years, SAG merged with AFTRA (the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists), resulting in an influx of everyone from TV meteorologists to radio talk-show hosts; more recently, the guild began admitting TikTokers, too. Furthermore, the Academy has made a concerted effort to become a more international organization, with members abroad accounting for 12 percent in 2015 but 25 percent today. In other words, the people who pick the SAG Award noms — or almost any of the noms from precursor awards… and the Oscar noms are no longer very similar.” (Emphasis added.) A number of people have commented that due to the jury system, the BAFTA awards are less important in determining Oscar winners than they used to be. The same is true about the SAG awards.February 12, 2022 at 2:52 am #1204797907
Yes, among this year’s Oscar nominees there are people from Japan, Norway, Denmark, France, Italy, Mexico, India, Chile, Spain, Afghanistan etc, plus all the English-speaking countries like Ireland and Australia. The shorts particularly are very international. I don’t know if all new nominees automatically become members, but it’s quite impressive.February 12, 2022 at 2:56 am #1204797911
jessie buckley , ciaran hinds , penelope cruz were all pushed by the international members mainly the european blocFebruary 12, 2022 at 3:08 am #1204797917
Yes, among this year’s Oscar nominees there are people from Japan, Norway, Denmark, France, Italy, Mexico, India, Chile, Spain, Afghanistan etc, plus all the English-speaking countries like Ireland and Australia. The shorts particularly are very international. I don’t know if all new nominees automatically become members, but it’s quite impressive.
the actors who becomes new nominees get invited last year they invited Maria bakalova , Leslie Odom Jr , Vanessa Kirby , Steven Yeun , youn yuh-jung , andra day and Paul raci
Riz ahmed and amanda seyfried were already membersFebruary 12, 2022 at 7:57 am #1204798110
How possible is it actually for Cumberbatch to win (eventually at the Oscars that is)? His performance is clearly very SAG unfriendly if the ballots are anything to go by (although Kodi seems to be doing fine) but in the chance that Smith actually loses SAG, anyone think it only stands to benefit Cumberbatch even if Garfield wins SAG?
As it turns into a Cumberbatch vs Garfield race and Cumberbatch has BP + BAFTA vs Garfield’s no BP nomination + SAG only?
Edit: This is OBVIOUSLY under the assumption that Cumberbatch actually wins BAFTA. If Smith or Leo or someone wins BAFTA the conversation is null.
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