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SAG Awards 2022 Film Predictions (Part 2)

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1204798122

    How possible is it actually for Cumberbatch to win (eventually at the Oscars that is)? His performance is clearly very SAG unfriendly if the ballots are anything to go by (although Kodi seems to be doing fine) but in the chance that Smith actually loses SAG, anyone think it only stands to benefit Cumberbatch even if Garfield wins SAG? As it turns into a Cumberbatch vs Garfield race and Cumberbatch has BP + BAFTA vs Garfield’s no BP nomination + SAG only? Edit: This is OBVIOUSLY under the assumption that Cumberbatch actually wins BAFTA. If Smith or Leo or someone wins BAFTA the conversation is null.

    It’s possible. Right now, it’s Will Smith until proven otherwise. But should Smith lose SAG — which I don’t think he will — that could really hurt him since he should be able to cruise to an easy win there. The talk is that Garfield is coming on strong at SAG, but SAG-AFTRA comprises 160K members — so regardless of how many dozens of ballots are published, we’ll never really know what the body at large is going/went for until that envelope is opened. Should Cumberbatch win SAG, that would be huge. And it’s not that SAG necessarily correlates with the Oscars, since the overlap between it and AMPAS’ actors’ branch is becoming more minimal by the year, but that it can be indication as to what plays well to a mainstream crowd. To that end, a Cumberbatch win would be significant since his performance is presumed to play better to a more high-brow/high-minded crowd. The benefit he has at the Oscars is that his film is the ostensible frontrunner in several categories. And if people love this film with a capital L and will vote for it across the board, it’s fair to assume Cumberbatch could be swept up in the love. A BAFTA win is indispensable though. I think BAFTA + AACTA + critics + BP frontrunner boost could be enough for him, but it depends on what happens otherwise. If Smith sweeps everything else, as he’s currently predicted to, it’s going to be a tight race. And if he (Smith) wins BAFTA, the race is pretty much over.

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    Mankishta
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    Feb 12th, 2022
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    #1204798147

    It’s possible. Right now, it’s Will Smith until proven otherwise. But should Smith lose SAG — which I don’t think he will — that could really hurt him since he should be able to cruise to an easy win there. The talk is that Garfield is coming on strong at SAG, but SAG-AFTRA comprises 160K members — so regardless of how many dozens of ballots are published, we’ll never really know what the body at large is going/went for until that envelope is opened. Should Cumberbatch win SAG, that would be huge. And it’s not that SAG necessarily correlates with the Oscars, since the overlap between it and AMPAS’ actors’ branch is becoming more minimal by the year, but that it can be indication as to what plays well to a mainstream crowd. To that end, a Cumberbatch win would be significant since his performance is presumed to play better to a more high-brow/high-minded crowd. The benefit he has at the Oscars is that his film is the ostensible frontrunner in several categories. And if people love this film with a capital L and will vote for it across the board, it’s fair to assume Cumberbatch could be swept up in the love. A BAFTA win is indispensable though. I think BAFTA + AACTA + critics + BP frontrunner boost could be enough for him, but it depends on what happens otherwise. If Smith sweeps everything else, as he’s currently predicted to, it’s going to be a tight race. And if he (Smith) wins BAFTA, the race is pretty much over.

    I think I’d be very shocked (but very happy) if Cumberbatch were to win SAG. TPOTD just seems like an extremely AFTRA unfriendly movie to me. In the small scenario that he does win SAG, I think he’ll 100% win the Oscar.

    I’m very curious to see what happens if Garfield wins SAG.

    BAFTA *should* go to Cumberbatch I think. King Richard didn’t make Film (when was the last time Actor won without Film- genuinely asking since I haven’t kept up with stats) and Leo??? I suppose a Leo win isn’t out of the realm of possibility but I feel like when BAFTA voting opens and with Leo out of the Oscar race, I can see people putting Cumberbatch in ballots because Netflix is obviously going to push him (Cumberbatch) more.

    What is general consensus of BAFTA top 2. Most people have to agree that Cumberbatch was top 2 right? And I think Leo.

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1204798159

    I think I’d be very shocked (but very happy) if Cumberbatch were to win SAG. TPOTD just seems like an extremely AFTRA unfriendly movie to me. In the small scenario that he does win SAG, I think he’ll 100% win the Oscar.

    I wouldn’t go as far as to say 100%, but I definitely agree with this sentiment.

    I’m very curious to see what happens if Garfield wins SAG.

    He’s a big question mark. If he wins SAG, that could pave the way for a Critics Choice win, but I don’t think CC matters that much. The problem for him is that he is not nominated at BAFTA and would have to find another way of keeping his momentum going after a potential SAG victory. At the Oscars, he is one of two noms for his film, which was snubbed in BP. And the last person to win here without a BP nom was, I think, Jeff Bridges for “Crazy Hart” in 2010.

    BAFTA *should* go to Cumberbatch I think. King Richard didn’t make Film (when was the last time Actor won without Film- genuinely asking since I haven’t kept up with stats) and Leo??? I suppose a Leo win isn’t out of the realm of possibility but I feel like when BAFTA voting opens and with Leo out of the Oscar race, I can see people putting Cumberbatch in ballots because Netflix is obviously going to push him (Cumberbatch) more. What is general consensus of BAFTA top 2. Most people have to agree that Cumberbatch was top 2 right? And I think Leo.

    This one’s tricky. Personally, I believe Cumberbatch and DiCaprio were the top 2, but I know that some people disagree. DLU was peaking while voting was happening, which explains the Leo nom IMO. Cumberbatch is self-explanatory: a nine-time BAFTA-nominated British household name competing for his arguably career-best performance in a Best Film frontrunner. I think he’s out in front at BAFTA, but should he lose to Smith, the race might be done.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204798171

    King Richard didn’t make Film (when was the last time Actor won without Film- genuinely asking since I haven’t kept up with stats)

    Since 2010 it’s only happened once. Rami Malek was playing Freddie Mercury and although Bohemian Rhapsody missed best film it was a stronger contender when it came to wins than A Star is Born (which won BAFTA’s original music category which is essentially original score and song combined together).

    It will be interesting if Smith does win the BAFTA because it’s not really a type of win that’s happened there since the responsibility for the voting for the winners shifted from the actors branch to the whole membership there.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    Setia Yasmine Khalil
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    #1204798180

    It’s possible. Right now, it’s Will Smith until proven otherwise. But should Smith lose SAG — which I don’t think he will — that could really hurt him since he should be able to cruise to an easy win there. The talk is that Garfield is coming on strong at SAG, but SAG-AFTRA comprises 160K members — so regardless of how many dozens of ballots are published, we’ll never really know what the body at large is going/went for until that envelope is opened. Should Cumberbatch win SAG, that would be huge. And it’s not that SAG necessarily correlates with the Oscars, since the overlap between it and AMPAS’ actors’ branch is becoming more minimal by the year, but that it can be indication as to what plays well to a mainstream crowd. To that end, a Cumberbatch win would be significant since his performance is presumed to play better to a more high-brow/high-minded crowd. The benefit he has at the Oscars is that his film is the ostensible frontrunner in several categories. And if people love this film with a capital L and will vote for it across the board, it’s fair to assume Cumberbatch could be swept up in the love. A BAFTA win is indispensable though. I think BAFTA + AACTA + critics + BP frontrunner boost could be enough for him, but it depends on what happens otherwise. If Smith sweeps everything else, as he’s currently predicted to, it’s going to be a tight race. And if he (Smith) wins BAFTA, the race is pretty much over.

    i wouldn’t be suprised someday that sag will match 10/20 they got their lowest overlap ever this year 12/20

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    Rachel615
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    Sep 20th, 2018
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    #1204798185

    This one’s tricky. Personally, I believe Cumberbatch and DiCaprio were the top 2, but I know that some people disagree. DLU was peaking while voting was happening, which explains the Leo nom IMO. Cumberbatch is self-explanatory: a nine-time BAFTA-nominated British household name competing for his arguably career-best performance in a Best Film frontrunner. I think he’s out in front at BAFTA, but should he lose to Smith, the race might be done.

    If Cumberbatch wins BAFTA, he owes Carey Mulligan a drink, at the very least. They changed the jury system largely due to her snub last year, and it’s unlikely he would have been nominated using the “old” jury system.

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204798206

    If Cumberbatch wins BAFTA, he owes Carey Mulligan a drink, at the very least. They changed the jury system largely due to her snub last year, and it’s unlikely he would have been nominated using the “old” jury system.

    He would, though

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    annveal
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    Dec 27th, 2021
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    #1204798208

    If Cumberbatch wins BAFTA, he owes Carey Mulligan a drink, at the very least. They changed the jury system largely due to her snub last year, and it’s unlikely he would have been nominated using the “old” jury system.

    Wait what was the “old” jury system? I thought it was top 2 auto-nominated, other 4 jury-picked from longlist same as last year?

     

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    Babylonian
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    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204798214

    When does SAG voting close?

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

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    Setia Yasmine Khalil
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    Jan 14th, 2022
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    #1204798228

    If Cumberbatch wins BAFTA, he owes Carey Mulligan a drink, at the very least. They changed the jury system largely due to her snub last year, and it’s unlikely he would have been nominated using the “old” jury system.

    Nope he would , actors in bp frontrunners didn’t miss him and kodi would have made it

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    kamila
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    Dec 6th, 2021
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    #1204798298

    I wonder how much momentum DLU could keep with BAFTA voters. I still think Cumberbatch was far ahead in voting, but it would be interesting if DiCaprio somehow won there.

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    Monet Tejada
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    #1204798520

    Imagine if Cumberbatch does win SAG. This board would rattle. I’m not betting on it, though.

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    wilfredpickles
    Joined:
    Jul 15th, 2017
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    #1204798574

    Wait what was the “old” jury system? I thought it was top 2 auto-nominated, other 4 jury-picked from longlist same as last year?

    The top 2 weren’t auto-nominated last year, and the reason some people call this new system the Carey Mulligan rule is that she almost definitely placed that high in last year’s membership votes given she’s a previous BAFTA winner and PYW did astonishingly well on the longlists, but the jury likely thought she was too obvious a choice and snubbed her.

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    kamila
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    #1204798622

    Let’s see if they create an Olivia Colman rule to make it top 3 next year.

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    rue
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    Oct 31st, 2019
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    #1204798736

    Let’s see if they create an Olivia Colman rule to make it top 3 next year.

    The Carey Mulligan rule was already supposed to be the Olivia Colman rule😭

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