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Even is the first time in years SAG differ completely from BAFTA, BAFTA will be more accurate at Oscars, at the recent years prove. I still rooting for Blanchett, Butler and Condon.
I feel BAFTA has been heavily influenced by SAG post 2010 which explains some of the winners. I do think BAFTA (or atleast pre jury BAFTA) was the key award in deciding fractured races but I am pretty sure BAFTA’s stats as an Oscar indicator would have been way off had it happened before SAG all these years. Kidman/Williams would have won over Davis. Smit-McPhee/Hinds over Kotsur. Cumberbatch over Smith. Dench over Blanchett (maybe).
ReplyCopy URLIt’s kind of weird to say SAG won’t be accurate and that BAFTA will when the best film winner at BAFTA wasn’t nominated at PGA (bare minimum), best director winner wasn’t nominated at the oscar or dga (also bare minimum), and all quiet on western front won best sound which will surely lose to top gun at the Oscars. I’ll even say Women Talking will win over all quiet for adapted.
Keoghan also won at BAFTA and won nothing else, at least Condon also has AACTA and NSFC.The only reason why BAFTA was more indicative of industry response was because it was the last televised award show before the Oscars, now this year SAG is the last thing on peoples minds before the Oscars.
ReplyCopy URLIt’s kind of weird to say SAG won’t be accurate and that BAFTA will when the best film winner at BAFTA wasn’t nominated at PGA (bare minimum), best director winner wasn’t nominated at the oscar or dga (also bare minimum), and all quiet on western front won best sound which will surely lose to top gun at the Oscars. I’ll even say Women Talking will win over all quiet for adapted.
Keoghan also won at BAFTA and won nothing else, at least Condon also has AACTA and NSFC.The only reason why BAFTA was more indicative of industry response was because it was the last televised award show before the Oscars, now this year SAG is the last thing on peoples minds before the Oscars.
Also a lot of people are behaving/commenting as if SAG is some local mtv awards or something.
ReplyCopy URLWhich is odd because last year SAG literally determined the Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Actress race. SAG was the first ones to reward Kotsur, Chastain, and CODA.
Meh BAFTA also loved CODA giving it Screenplay (before WGA) and Kotsur. It wasn’t just rubberstamping. And the Best Actress was decided by SAG because there were no Oscar nominees at BAFTA.
ReplyCopy URLMeh BAFTA also loved CODA giving it Screenplay (before WGA) and Kotsur. It wasn’t just rubberstamping. And the Best Actress was decided by SAG because there were no Oscar nominees at BAFTA.
I think Kotsur only won at BAFTA because he won at SAG. I remember Kodi was the strong favorite since he won at NYFCC and LAFCA and LFCC (probably the most important since Keoghan also had that). What i’m trying to say is that SAG results most likely influenced BAFTA to go for Kotsur and CODA in screenplay. If Chastain was nominated, she also could have won because The Eyes of Tammy Faye won makeup at BAFTA.
ReplyCopy URLAgain, statistics, since 2005, no Best Picture Winner took two acting Oscars.
Here’s another stat: No trifecta sweeper won the Oscar without also winning SAG. Forest Whitaker, Sean Penn, Daniel Day-Lewis, Helen Mirren, Cate Blanchett (herself in Blue Jasmine), Christoph Waltz, JK Simmons, Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Mo’Nique all won SAG. I guess you can count Regina King a trifecta sweeper winning without SAG, but beale street had late screener issues and Emily Blunt wasn’t even nominated at the Oscar’s. Anyways, who cares about stats just follow momentum and vibes. If you feel like EEAAO will only win one acting Oscar, then use your intuition not stats.
Stats favor The Fabelmans winning at least one ATL Oscar because it’s a TIFF People Choice winner, are you predicting it to win ATL too?
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