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SCREENPLAY Adapted and Original

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  • Gabriel Guarin
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    With the backlash to her Directing snub growing, Greta now has the narrative to win Adapted Screenplay.

    Absolutely. I don’t know why I didn’t bring that up when making my case for her. But it’s also time for Critics’ Choice and Oscar to agree on this category again after their divergence last year.

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    cinetastic
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    I liked Little Women but I didn’t find its screenplay so impressive. Joker, Jojo Rabbit and The Two Popes are better IMO.

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    JackO
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    I’ll just pretend that her win is for lady bird. It’ll also be funny to see the pundit haters meltdown.

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    Filmatelist
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    With the backlash to her Directing snub growing, Greta now has the narrative to win Adapted Screenplay.

    Agreed. Plus with 6 nods including Pic, LW proved a much bigger force to contend with than previously thought. This will be the one chance the Academy has of rewarding a female director (among the feature films) and 4 of the last 8 winners in this category have been the film’s director.

    I think Original is much harder to predict, because QT already has two writing Oscars (and sentiment may lean toward a Director win) and PARASITE really can’t be underestimated. It is a genuinely unknown quantity and one of the film’s great strengths is its ingenious labyrinth-like plot and larger message.

    And MARRIAGE STORY is definitely a dark horse because its a situation (creatives in emotional turmoil, bi-coastal relationships, California divorce laws) that many of the members can identify with closely. And the prospect of a husband/wife winning pair may be too irresistible to some. That category really is a toss-up.

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    justonemorething
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    It’ll be Gerwig and Baumbach.

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    Jake
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    “The Farewell” was in Top 5 by experts here since the start and right until the nomination announcement. I have yet to see “1917” but I guess the former is more my kind of film than the latter but I suppose it was well-written as well. Somewhere in October I wrote that I don’t see 2 Asian films nominated here and I was right but I let myself be convinced otherwise. It was kind of sad how “The Farewell” was losing steam to the point where it had nothing despite the fact that it won Golden Globe (in part due to no competition, no disrespect to 4 ladies who were against Awkwafina but they didn’t have other Best Actress inclusions).

    “Knives Out” is my favorite nomination, it’s this year’s “nominated only in original screenplay” film which prevents it from winning but puts it alongside the likes of “Purple Rose of Cairo”, “The Lobster”, “First Reformed” or “Nightcrawler” and that’s a good company to keep.

    “Parasite” will get what “Amour” got and that’s foreign language/international film category. “Marriage Story” will get what “Michael Clayton” got and that’s best supporting actress, unless Noah Baumbach’s gonna challenge Tarantino which I don’t see because it didn’t happen once so far. It’s gonna be Quentin’s 3rd screenwriting Oscar, tying him with Woody Allen (who had 16 nominations, compared to Tarantino’s 4).

    “The Irishman” vs. “Joker” on the adapted side, unless Greta “vote for the women” Gerwig campaign takes off but I doubt that… for now. Those Gerwig/Baumbach voices sounds more like romanticism than real predictions. “Jojo Rabbit” is too divisive and “The Two Popes” is filling the 5th spot, although it’s a fine movie which I enjoyed.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 4 days ago by  Jake.
    • This reply was modified 1 week, 4 days ago by  Jake.
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    Nikhil
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    In Adapted, I think Zallian is actually behind Gerwig and Waititi right now. Gerwig has a strong narrative and Waititi is well-liked (see DGA) and his script is funny which is something the Academy at large often responds to in this category.

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

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    Stegeo
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    Jojo is winning A. Screenplay. People are delighted by it. Industry hates remakes no matter how good they are: Little Women will be covered with costumes. Irishman is winning 0 Oscars; they’ll wanna tell Netflix “fuck you” by giving it 0 Oscars in total with the exception of Dern who’s winning only because she’s Dern who is after her career Oscar.

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    Riley Chow
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    I do not think that Jojo Rabbit is divisive at all within the industry (or the general public); I think that that was just a critic thing.  It will win like BlacKkKlansman by being the most original of the nominees and the Internet will fail to guilt the academy into voting Little Women over it just like they failed with The Favourite over fellow crowd-pleaser Green Book.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    Adapted Screenplay is between Little Women and The Irishman; they have much more passion than Jojo Rabbit. I am predicting Little Women. I love the script to The Two Popes but it’s not a BP nominee.

    Original Screenplay is where I am hoping they don’t give Tarantino yet another Oscar when there are much stronger contenders: 1917, Parasite and Marriage Story all deserve to win. For now I am predicting Hollywood but hoping to be wrong about it.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    I do not think that Jojo Rabbit is divisive at all within the industry (or the general public); I think that that was just a critic thing. It will win like BlacKkKlansman by being the most original of the nominees and the Internet will fail to guilt the academy into voting Little Women over it just like they failed with The Favourite over fellow crowd-pleaser Green Book.

    Little Women won Critics’ Choice unlike The Favourite. So the comparison is faulty. Plus, Gerwig is far more well-known than the writers of The Favourite and has a history with the Oscars. She lost her past nominations. This is her moment.

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    Eddy Q
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    It wont. The effects are horrible. Ever since Ex Machina won, it has been the MOST VFX prize. Irishman will get shut out.

    Um, no it hasn’t. Ex Machina certainly didn’t have the most effects and neither did First Man. With rare exceptions, the film with the most nominations elsewhere wins Visual Effects, which this year would be The Irishman or 1917, though having two nominees in this position complicates things.

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    Eddy Q
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    I do not think that Jojo Rabbit is divisive at all within the industry (or the general public); I think that that was just a critic thing. It will win like BlacKkKlansman by being the most original of the nominees and the Internet will fail to guilt the academy into voting Little Women over it just like they failed with The Favourite over fellow crowd-pleaser Green Book.

    I disliked Jojo Rabbit but I think you may be right. Just because Little Women rebounded in the Best Picture race since December doesn’t mean it’s suddenly the frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay over films more solidly positioned beforehand. I’ll keep Gerwig in third unless she wins WGA. Critics Choice doesn’t mean shit.

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    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    Darlings, Feminist Gerwig and Disgustantino are clearly winning!! One of them will actually be well-deserved.

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    Darlings, Feminist Gerwig and Disgustantino are clearly winning!! One of them will actually be well-deserved.

    You exist just to troll people.

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